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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:34 am to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:34 am to
quote:

Certainly, Russia can get replacement stuff from China, but I wonder about the impact.


Well seeing how the USA and EU use Chinese components (i.e. Huawei) in their 5G systems they probably won't see much of an impact.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:38 am to
quote:

Patriots are anti ballistic missiles not for drones.



They better rush them to Ukraine since Russia has allegedly received a ballistic missile shipment from Iran, and Belarus has reportedly agreed to allow Russia to launch ballistic missiles from its territory.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 8:47 am to
The situation on the ground near Bakhmut on 12/1/22.



The situation on the ground on 12/21/22.



Based on open source intel, Russia has advanced approximately 3 kms in 3 weeks.
This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 10:25 am
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:45 am to
Yeah, Russia is heading for lots more pain if they continue with direct assaults on Bakhmut.

What the need to do is partially surround the city. That's why the fight for Soledar is so important. If Soledar were to fall, that would put Bakhmut in real danger.

I know that Ukraine is still holding on to Soledar, but I'm more worried about it falling than I am about direct Russian attacks on Bakhmut.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Patriots are anti ballistic missiles not for drones.

________________________________________________________

They better rush them to Ukraine since Russia has allegedly received a ballistic missile shipment from Iran, and Belarus has reportedly agreed to allow Russia to launch ballistic missiles from its territory.



What's needed is a layered air defense network with different systems that can respond to different kinds of threats. The German Gepards, for example, are ideal for shooting down the Shahed drones, but not so effective against missiles.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 10:44 am to
quote:

What's needed is a layered air defense network with different systems that can respond to different kinds of threats.


Yes, you are absolutely correct. My sauce(s) have said that they have been asking far back the fall of 2021 when Russia first started preparing to invade. My sauce(s) in Ukraine tell me that they expected a missile attack on its infrastructure, like Russia has been conducting since October, as part of the initial stages of the invasion. The Ukrainians have been asking for Ukraine has been asking for western SAMs or at least USSR era systems to build a comprehensive layered air defense system since at least last fall. The USA and NATO did not take the requests seriously until this summer. Just like Ukraine has been requesting more diesel freight locomotive since the summer because they knew the electric grid was a vulnerability and they did not have enough diesel locomotives to absorb the load. The west still has not acknowledged this and its gotten so bad that Ukraine is bringing steam engines out of museums and asking the Baltic states to donate Russian gauge steam engines to them. The USA and NATO assistance as been of great help to the Ukrainians and had a profound effect on the war. However, the assistance on average is arriving 6 months too late.
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8158 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 10:45 am to
Pressure on Kremima appears to be increasing. Maybe movement to the north will undermine the whole Wagner effort at Bakhmut.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Pressure on Kremima appears to be increasing. Maybe movement to the north will undermine the whole Wagner effort at Bakhmut.



I don't think so because Putin is determined to get a W. However if Ukraine swaps Bakhmut for Kreminna then Ukraine gets the upper edge. Ukraine has an even more defensible position < 5 km west of Bakhmut to stop any Russian advance to the west. If Keminna falls then Russia will have to fall back to Severodonetsk which puts the supply lines to the Bakhmut axis in artillery range. Which is why it is mind boggling that Putin is going all in on Bakhmut.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:27 am to
Full details of the today's announcement of the latest military aid package:

From Presidential Drawdown Authority:

-One Patriot battery and munitions;
-HIMARS ammo
-500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
-10 120mm mortar systems and 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
-10 82mm mortar systems;
-10 60mm mortar systems;
-37 Cougar MRAPs
-120 HMMWVs
-6 armored utility trucks;
-HARM missiles
-Precision aerial munitions;
-Over 2,700 grenade launchers and small arms;
-Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
-Demolition munitions
-Night vision devices and optics;
-Tactical secure communications systems;
-Body armor



From USAI (new purchases by the US for Ukraine)

-45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
-20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
-50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
-100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;
-SATCOM terminals and services;
-Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4130 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:53 am to
quote:

45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
-20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
-50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
-100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition


This is probably needed more than everything else. In a weird way this conflict looks like it is going to be more about who has bigger stores of ammunition more so than who has more bodies to put into the fight
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 11:57 am to
I just noticed that, after all the talk about them supposedly being included in this package, the JDAM kits aren't listed. I wonder if that ended up delayed as we work on better ways to integrate controls for Ukrainian pilots (or for some other reason).
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
3108 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

I just noticed that, after all the talk about them supposedly being included in this package, the JDAM kits aren't listed.


I think this may be it from the list above

-Precision aerial munitions;

If precision aerial munitions are a type of precision guided munitions then this definition may apply -

Definition from DoD -

The Department of Defense (DOD) defines a precision-
guided munition (PGM) as a “guided weapon intended to
destroy a point target and minimize collateral damage.”
This includes air- and ship-launched missiles, multiple
launched rockets, and guided bombs. PGMs typically use
the global positioning system (GPS), laser guidance, or
inertial navigation systems to improve a weapon’s accuracy
to reportedly less than 3 meters (approximately 10 feet).


This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 1:01 pm
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

One Patriot battery and munitions;


Any word on when the hawks and other older SAM systems will reach Ukraine?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

Any word on when the hawks and other older SAM systems will reach Ukraine?



It was a month ago that the US announced that the money for the HAWKs refurbishment had been allocated.

That process is clearly not yet complete, because we haven't included the HAWKs in any drawdown announcement yet.

The good news is that Spain has already donated its HAWKs, so any additional training time for Ukrainians to use US HAWKs should be minimal.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
19115 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

-Precision aerial munitions;



Thanks, cypher. That makes sense.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
41576 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

It was a month ago that the US announced that the money for the HAWKs refurbishment had been allocated. That process is clearly not yet complete, because we haven't included the HAWKs in any drawdown announcement yet. The good news is that Spain has already donated its HAWKs, so any additional training time for Ukrainians to use US HAWKs should be minimal.


I wonder how long it takes to refurbish and modernize a missile. If Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure keeps getting hit as hard as it has been then they are not going to be able to repair it before the next attack. That will start a snowball effect and could bring down the electric system completely. If the electric system goes down that wipes out 1/3rd of Ukraine’s freight rail capacity and that could be bad news if it coincides with a Russian offensive. Those SAMs are needed ASAP or sooner.
Posted by LeClerc
USVI
Member since Oct 2012
2841 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:26 pm to
Wee, do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session? Because I just heard MTG is against it.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
10836 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

Wee, do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session? Because I just heard MTG is against it.


MTG is a noisy minority, the alternative to AOC. 75% of the GOP supports Ukraine.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
23965 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:48 pm to
quote:

do you think the Republicans in the House are going to support Ukraine in the next session?


Oh no, this most recent appropriation will be the last.

Posted by LeClerc
USVI
Member since Oct 2012
2841 posts
Posted on 12/21/22 at 5:48 pm to
The list of House Republicans who have always voted against Ukraine relief are:



Jodey Arrington of Texas
Brian Babin of Texas
Jim Banks of Indiana
Andy Biggs of Arizona
Gus Bilirakis of Florida
Dan Bishop of North Carolina
Lauren Boebert of Colorado
Ken Buck of Colorado
Tim Burchett of Tennessee
Kat Cammack of Florida
Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina
Michael Cloud of Texas
Andrew Clyde of Georgia
James Comer of Kentucky
Warren Davidson of Ohio
Scott Des Jarlais of Tennessee
Byron Donalds of Florida
Jeff Duncan of South Carolina
Ron Estes of Kansas
Russ Fulcher of Idaho
Matt Gaetz of Florida
Bob Gibbs of Ohio
Louie Gohmert of Texas
Bob Good of Virginia
Paul Gosar of Arizona
Garret Graves of Louisiana
Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia
Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee
Vicky Hartzler of Missouri
Kevin Hern of Oklahoma
Yvette Herrell of New Mexico
Jody Hice of Georgia
Clay Higgins of Louisiana
Bill Huizenga of Michigan
Ronny Jackson of Texas
Mike Johnson of Louisiana
Jim Jordan of Ohio
Debbie Lesko of Arizona
Billy Long of Missouri
Tracey Mann of Kansas
Thomas Massie of Kentucky
Brian Mast of Florida
Mary Miller of Illinois
Barry Moore of Alabama
Troy Nehls of Texas
Ralph Norman of South Carolina
Scott Perry of Pennsylvania
John Rose of Tennessee
Matthew Rosendale of Montana
Chip Roy of Texas
Pete Sessions of Texas
Greg Steube of Florida
Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin
Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey
Beth Van Duyne of Texas
Bruce Westerman of Arkansas
Roger Williams of Texas

They may be a minority but in a conference with such a weak Speaker it could make a difference.

Newsweek
This post was edited on 12/21/22 at 5:50 pm
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