The College Coaching Pay Bubble Is Bursting — Time for LSU to Lead, Not Follow

Good luck finding a reputable coach that will be the trailblazer in that endeavor

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That’s fine — you don’t have to “find” a trailblazer. The market will force one.

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The invisible hand is at play man…..ask yourself this question, If you were at the top of your career and other people in that space were guaranteed 1,000,000, would you take 600k if someone else was willing to pay full price?

Totally get that — nobody’s saying a coach chooses to take less out of generosity. If someone’s willing to pay, they’ll take it. That’s human nature.

But the invisible hand works both ways. When the market conditions change — like when schools have to fund $20M+ in player pay, escalating staff costs, and facility arms races — that “someone willing to pay full price” starts disappearing. The buyer side of the equation changes, not just the seller.

It’s not about whether a coach would accept less. It’s about whether a school will still be able or willing to offer it.
Once the economics shift, prices adjust — even for the top guys.

That’s exactly how the invisible hand works.

Something is going to have to be done to regulate the portal and/or NIL. The current financial model in college sports is just not sustainable. It’s going to collapse under its own weight. It’s the sports equivalent of trying to have a welfare state with open borders.

Exactly. The system’s burning cash from every direction — NIL, portal payouts, coaching contracts, facilities, and bloated staff budgets. There’s no real cost control anywhere.

Right now it’s all market chaos — short-term spending, long-term obligations, and no governing framework. If something doesn’t change soon (some form of cap, structured revenue-sharing, or player contract regulation), the model will eat itself.

You can’t run a billion-dollar industry on emotional spending and booster checks forever. Either the NCAA, Congress, or the conferences themselves are going to have to step in — because this version of college sports isn’t economically sustainable.

This is all an excuse for when LSU settles for some G5 or OC.

Your ideas are actually well thought out. I completely agree with you. However, there are some differences.

The NFL has a CBA. No such thing exists in CFB.

The NFL and their sponsors must play by the FTC rules governing endorsements and sponsorships (established decades ago). For now, the FTC (and IRS for that matter) has been rather quiet. But don’t be fooled by people who say otherwise. The Feds are watching. Oracle does not and never will receive “benefits” by giving a HS QB $10M. They just won’t. There must be value.

The schools don't pay the Revenue Sharing nor do they pay coaches salaries nor do they pay NIL (which now must pass through a clearinghouse).

The NFL teams receive money from tickets and royalties from merchandise, which, if you ask me, should be what NIL truly is. Tell every player, you’ll get a royalty check for every jersey, mug etc etc that is sold. PERIOD.

Good points — you're looking at the right structural issues. And yes, college football isn’t the NFL right now. But the direction still leads toward a correction.

You’re right about the CBA — CFB doesn’t have one yet. But with the House settlement, Johnson case, and players moving toward employee status, a CBA-style framework is coming. Courts are forcing structure, and once it’s here, spending guards and standardized contracts follow.

FTC/IRS oversight is also going to increase. NIL deals with no real value exchange won’t fly forever. When real compliance hits, “booster as ATM” becomes harder.

And while schools don’t technically pay all the money today — the ecosystem still comes from the same donor base. When you're funding roster money, coaching buyouts, assistants, analysts, recruiting, and facilities, something eventually has to give. That’s where the correction hits — mostly in the middle tier, not the elite.

Your royalty-based NIL idea is logical, but we’re past that point. Players now have leverage. The future looks like a hybrid: revenue share + regulated NIL + some form of contract structure.

So yes — different mechanics, but the same outcome: once real labor costs exist and federal compliance tightens, the market stops paying everyone like they’re Kirby Smart. The top stays paid. The excess underneath gets squeezed.

It isn’t even close to bursting it’s only going to keep getting worse