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Landing the big fish is all about timing...
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:24 pm
Chris Petersen from Boise State to Washington was timing...same with Fisher to A&M...and Saban to Alabama...Harbaugh to Michigan. Herman was the big fish in 2016...if Texas doesn't have an opening, he goes to LSU.
Most Power 5 head coach hires are not splash hires. They are most often either a successful G5 coach making his big move, or a successful P5 coordinator making his big move. Sometimes it is a P5 coach from a smaller program making the move to a powerhouse.
So, as it relates to LSU's search:
Tomlin, Riley? Forget about it.
Kiffin? Ole Miss can pay him a lot of money...and maybe he believes he can be the hero of Oxford and make them into a perennial winner. Plus his ties to O don't help his case at LSU. Timing wise, he has only been at Ole Miss for two seasons...and hasn't been head coach anywhere for longer than three seasons. I would love to see his offense at LSU but there are definitely some red flags.
Franklin? He won 9 games twice at Vanderbilt, which should automatically put him in the College Football Hall of Fame. Took over for O'Brien at Penn State and kept them rolling but can't get over the hump. He is already paid well, and is from Pennsylvania.
Tucker and Aranda? They haven't been head coaches at same place for more than 2 years...is this enough sample size to get you to hand over the keys to the LSU program?
Napier? He's been at ULL for four recruiting cycles...and has his team competing well...since 2019, his team is 27-5...plus Saban twice brought him to Bama to help in some capacity. The knock on him is if LSU is too big a jump from the Sun Belt...
Matt Campbell? Meat and Potatoes guy from the midwest...success at MAC and Big 12 but can't get over the hump yet...
Brian Kelly? He is likely paid very well, and likes being at a program with the prestige of Notre Dame. He likely knows he can't win the title at ND but might be ok with that. But who knows? Perhaps he wants a better chance to win a title by going to a school whose previous three coaches all won titles?
Dabo? Not sure why his name is coming up...perhaps its to win a title at a different school, but seems as far-fetched as Lincoln Riley.
Jamey Chadwell is Napier without the familiarity of Louisiana.
Fickell...seems destined to stay in Midwest...and wait out a Big Ten opening or even Notre Dame.
Mark Stoops...has had success at Kentucky, which is remarkable in itself. Took over for Joker Phillips, who went 13–24 overall (4–20 in SEC) in three seasons...Five straight bowl appearance and has gone 29-15 record since 2018 season. Don't think it gets to Stoops, though.
Matt Rhule? Is he the Saban of this coaching search? An NFL coach tired of the NFL after two seasons? Probably not...
Chris Petersen? Woodward got him to Washington...he retired after 2019 season. He is 147-38 overall as a head coach. Is he the white whale, or is he content in retirement?
Bob Stoops..amazing resume at OU...won a title and competed for two others. Out of college coaching for 5 years but had a big enough itch to sign up to be an XFL coach in 2020. Can Woodward get him to come to LSU?
In summary, if we don't get some big fish who is wanting a change of scenery, I think we end up with Napier, Tucker, Aranda or Campbell...with long shot James Franklin, Bob Stoops or Chris Petersen.
Most Power 5 head coach hires are not splash hires. They are most often either a successful G5 coach making his big move, or a successful P5 coordinator making his big move. Sometimes it is a P5 coach from a smaller program making the move to a powerhouse.
So, as it relates to LSU's search:
Tomlin, Riley? Forget about it.
Kiffin? Ole Miss can pay him a lot of money...and maybe he believes he can be the hero of Oxford and make them into a perennial winner. Plus his ties to O don't help his case at LSU. Timing wise, he has only been at Ole Miss for two seasons...and hasn't been head coach anywhere for longer than three seasons. I would love to see his offense at LSU but there are definitely some red flags.
Franklin? He won 9 games twice at Vanderbilt, which should automatically put him in the College Football Hall of Fame. Took over for O'Brien at Penn State and kept them rolling but can't get over the hump. He is already paid well, and is from Pennsylvania.
Tucker and Aranda? They haven't been head coaches at same place for more than 2 years...is this enough sample size to get you to hand over the keys to the LSU program?
Napier? He's been at ULL for four recruiting cycles...and has his team competing well...since 2019, his team is 27-5...plus Saban twice brought him to Bama to help in some capacity. The knock on him is if LSU is too big a jump from the Sun Belt...
Matt Campbell? Meat and Potatoes guy from the midwest...success at MAC and Big 12 but can't get over the hump yet...
Brian Kelly? He is likely paid very well, and likes being at a program with the prestige of Notre Dame. He likely knows he can't win the title at ND but might be ok with that. But who knows? Perhaps he wants a better chance to win a title by going to a school whose previous three coaches all won titles?
Dabo? Not sure why his name is coming up...perhaps its to win a title at a different school, but seems as far-fetched as Lincoln Riley.
Jamey Chadwell is Napier without the familiarity of Louisiana.
Fickell...seems destined to stay in Midwest...and wait out a Big Ten opening or even Notre Dame.
Mark Stoops...has had success at Kentucky, which is remarkable in itself. Took over for Joker Phillips, who went 13–24 overall (4–20 in SEC) in three seasons...Five straight bowl appearance and has gone 29-15 record since 2018 season. Don't think it gets to Stoops, though.
Matt Rhule? Is he the Saban of this coaching search? An NFL coach tired of the NFL after two seasons? Probably not...
Chris Petersen? Woodward got him to Washington...he retired after 2019 season. He is 147-38 overall as a head coach. Is he the white whale, or is he content in retirement?
Bob Stoops..amazing resume at OU...won a title and competed for two others. Out of college coaching for 5 years but had a big enough itch to sign up to be an XFL coach in 2020. Can Woodward get him to come to LSU?
In summary, if we don't get some big fish who is wanting a change of scenery, I think we end up with Napier, Tucker, Aranda or Campbell...with long shot James Franklin, Bob Stoops or Chris Petersen.
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 9:44 pm
45
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:27 pm to Chicken
Finally, someone spells Petersen correctly
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:28 pm to Chicken
quote:
In summary, if we don't get some big fish who is wanting a change of scenery, I think we end up with Napier, Tucker, Aranda or Campbell.
Yep, been my contention all along. Great post Chicken.
most will hate to hear it as they dont understand hiring and just want to stomp their foot and throw money at the problem.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:28 pm to Chicken
100% agree. I'm thinking Napier from your summation. Tucker will make or break his opportunity over the next 4 weeks.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:29 pm to Chicken
Rhule may be the best bet if he wants out of the NFL.
Otherwise, LSU is into Tier 2 coaches hoping it works out.
Otherwise, LSU is into Tier 2 coaches hoping it works out.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:29 pm to Chicken
I think that about sums it up.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:30 pm to Chicken
Thank you for bringing common since.
Timing wise our Tier 2 list will be the only thing that lines up.
Riley has 5 weeks left of football plus CC and Playoff and he's still undefeated. If we threw $12 mill offer to him like some say he's thinking about it BUT Woodward asking for a decision probably fairy quickly and that's just to much to process with so much football left.
Timing wise our Tier 2 list will be the only thing that lines up.
Riley has 5 weeks left of football plus CC and Playoff and he's still undefeated. If we threw $12 mill offer to him like some say he's thinking about it BUT Woodward asking for a decision probably fairy quickly and that's just to much to process with so much football left.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:30 pm to Chicken
We would Rhule college football with Matt
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:31 pm to Larry_Hotdogs
Still think there's a chance that LSU lands Riley. You talked about timing, OU moving to the SEC could make the timing right.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:32 pm to Chicken
Good analysis Chicken.
I think Riley might be interested because he's headed to the SEC. He can stay at OU and be in the bottom half of the SEC or go to LSU and go to the top half. OU can only recruit 1.5 teams (1 stout offensive unit and a half of a defense) due to talent area being split up by several big competitors. LSU has proven it can man top flight teams on both sides of the ball.
I think Riley has better chance at Natty at LSU, unless somehow he can pop that cherry before OU gets into the SEC.
I think Riley might be interested because he's headed to the SEC. He can stay at OU and be in the bottom half of the SEC or go to LSU and go to the top half. OU can only recruit 1.5 teams (1 stout offensive unit and a half of a defense) due to talent area being split up by several big competitors. LSU has proven it can man top flight teams on both sides of the ball.
I think Riley has better chance at Natty at LSU, unless somehow he can pop that cherry before OU gets into the SEC.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:33 pm to PIGSKIN
Rhule doesn't strike me as the type to quit.
Don't think it will be rhule.
Don't think it will be rhule.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:35 pm to BEATIGER
quote:
Good analysis Chicken.
I think Riley might be interested because he's headed to the SEC. He can stay at OU and be in the bottom half of the SEC or go to LSU and go to the top half. OU can only recruit 1.5 teams (1 stout offensive unit and a half of a defense) due to talent area being split up by several big competitors. LSU has proven it can man top flight teams on both sides of the ball.
I think Riley has better chance at Natty at LSU, unless somehow he can pop that cherry before OU gets into the SEC.
WTF makes yall think that a program that historically has been much much more successful than LSU is suddenly goign to suck in the SEC.
said the same shite about A&M and yall were wrong then.
OU will elevate the program. They may be behind Bama and UGA right away but thats it.
Next tier would be LSU, A&M, Texas, Florida, OU
bottom half of the SEC??? Are you frickign retarded, jesus christ
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:35 pm to Chicken
But much like when O was hired we offered Herman & Jimbo….or Johnson we made big names tell us not interested first…We have to offer a few of the coaches before your final 4 because it’s tough to imagine teams will be lined out the door to scoop them up this year. If LSU doesn’t hire 1 of those last four they are probably coaching at their respective school in 2022.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:35 pm to Chicken
At one of the premier jobs in America you don’t hire a guy who is 15-12 as a head coach. As soon as Tucker loses 4 of his last 5 this year maybe we can forget this guy and stop bringing his name up.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:36 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Napier confirmed. Thanks chicky baby.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:37 pm to lsu777
quote:
WTF makes yall think that a program that historically has been much much more successful than LSU is suddenly goign to suck in the SEC.
Because they routinely get curb stomped by SEC teams in the playoffs, dude.
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:37 pm to Chicken
quote:How do you rank these on list of wants?
In summary, if we don't get some big fish who is wanting a change of scenery, I think we end up with Napier, Tucker, Aranda or Campbell...with long shot Franklin.
I have Aranda > Napier > Tucker > Campbell > Franklin.
I just do not like the look of Penn State under Franklin. Don’t buy much into Aranda leaving Baylor on an upswing to start over again.
Napier has always been my bet. I would be beside myself if they somehow landed Riley. Worth acknowledging that Kiffin has some momentum, but I’d be just as surprised with him here as I would with Riley.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:37 pm to Magician2
quote:
BUT Woodward asking for a decision probably fairy quickly and that's just to much to process with so much football left
There is 0 chance Woodward has offered Riley a contract and asked him to make a decision quickly.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:37 pm to Chicken
Chris Petersen is not coaching right now, yet the timing filter missed him in your final list.
More than timing in his case?
More than timing in his case?
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:39 pm to BEATIGER
quote:
He can stay at OU and be in the bottom half of the SEC
Do you really believe they'll be in the bottom half of the SEC? IMO they will be just like Auburn
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