re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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Is there a thread made on Dance of Dragons discussion or can we do it here?

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History: patchface was a jester slave in volantis, apparently very clever. steffon baratheon bought his freedom, and meant to bring him back to storm’s end after his trip to the free cities to find a wife for rhaegar. in steffon’s words: "perhaps in time he will even teach stannis how to laugh." this is where robert and stannis see their father’s ship, windproud, get wrecked, killing both steffon and his wife. there were no survivors — but, three days later, patchface was found with clammy cold skin, taken for dead until he coughed up water. the wreck had given him amnesia and ruined his mind. the smallfolk nearby have been known to say "a mermaid had taught him to breathe water in return for his seed." he was no longer known as a witty fool, but a twitchy, unstable man.

Patchface literally drowned and was reborn as a new person. sound familiar?

This is what aeron damphair claims to do to those willing to pledge their life to the drowned god.

After the accident, much of what patchface says has to do with being under the sea.

And then there are his prophecies:

Wherein patchface predicts renly’s death (wearing an outfit eerily similar to renly’s armor): “the shadows came to dance, my lord, dance my lord, dance my lord,” he sang, hopping from one foot to the other and back again. “the shadows came to stay, my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord.” he jerked his head with each word, the bells in his antlers ringing up a clangor.

Wherein patchface predicts the red wedding:“fool’s blood, king’s blood, blood on the maiden’s thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye aye aye.”

In a lot of his little jingles, patchface talks about being "under the sea", like he was for the three days where he was dead. some examples: "it is always summer under the sea." "under the sea, you fall up." "here we eat fish, under the sea, the fish eat us." "under the sea no one wears [crowns]." "under the sea the crows are white as snow." "away, away, come with me beneath the sea, away, away, away."

There seems to be a direct correlation between the sea and death; especially since this is where patchface died and, we can assume, was given back his life, or a shell of it, by the drowned god. and since he has such accurate predictions, i think it’s safe to say that, following this line of reasoning, patchface has become a prophet of the drowned god.

So i guess we have reason to get freaked out by this: "i will lead it. we will march into the sea and out again. under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming." following the relationship between death and the sea, it seems to be that what patchface is saying is that he will lead people to their deaths, only to have them brought back to life.

I know it can’t only be me who immediately thought of the others — especially when the “mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming,” which could either a) reflect the ten blasts signalling white walkers for the night’s watch, or b) be an allusion to the horn of joramun. either way, patchface, the prophet of the drowned god, has a clear association with the others.

Which brings us to another question: how does patchface mean to bring an army to their death, in order to lead them as white walkers?

Well, let’s talk about greyscale: greyscale is born in a cold, damp climate; somewhere by the sea, or perhaps in the sea itself. the wildlings in particular fear it; they say that those who survive it are “unclean” and that it is never dormant, and could become active again years after it stopped spreading the first time.

Shireen baratheon is the most prominent character, but others have had it too — jon connington is dying of it, and harlon greyjoy, brother to balon, crow’s eye, victarion, and aeron damphair, died of it as a child. so what does this mean? it means shireen is literally like a biological weapon or something. patchface, who most likely brought the illness upon shireen in the first place, being of the sea and such, would have control over the greyscale, being a prophet of the drowned god. he can use this control to make the greyscale become active again, spreading to any group of people he chooses in order to lead them as a risen-again army.

So what does this mean for shireen?

When you have a weed, you need to pull it up by the root. when you have a problem, you need to get to the source of it in order to fix it. in this case, the source of the greyscale would be shireen. "i had bad dreams," shireen told him. "about the dragons. they were coming to eat me." shireen is 1/8 targaryen, so even if she doesn’t have important prophetic dreams, they are still something to take into account. it may be that the stone dragons she knows from dragonstone have come back to “eat” her in the flames, her death being a direct result of patchface’s “stone” (greyscaled) army.

It would also explain mel’s vision of patchface surrounded by skulls, lips red with blood. so what does this mean for all of team dragonstone? if we are to go ahead and accept the possibility of a sacrifice of shireen, this could mean many things for team dragonstone.

Shireen’s greyscale really is the root of the problem, and with her sacrifice patchface’s army of others falls shireen’s sacrifice is the king’s blood mel has needed all this time, and it will give stannis the power he needs to overpower the others

Shireen is stannis’ nyssa nyssa; she is the personal sacrifice he needs to make to temper the sword lightbringer and defeat the others

So, conclusion: patchface is a deranged general of the others, the drowned god has some majorly dark objectives with unknown motives, and shireen is basically by far the most important pawn in the entire game of thrones, and as soon as people realize that, some major shite is going to down.

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Aerys and Tywin were both born between 240-244AL. By 259AL they were both young men filled with ambition and life was about to confine each of them to the shadows unless they made their own luck. Aegon V was a popular King and in good health. There wasn't any reason to think that his reign wouldn't last as long as Jaehaerys I—or longer. Because of some prophecy, Aegon V had forced Aerys to marry his sister and now their first son was about to be born. Worst, his grandfather had high hopes for the child. Aerys didn't have to be a genius to know that the succession would pass from his grandfather to his son and that unless something changed he was a has-been at 16. Knowing what we know about Aerys, I can’t see him meekly accepting that fate.

His friend Tywin had similar problems. Lannister power was at a low ebb. His father was weak and vassal Lords laughed at his family and his father just took the disrespect. He even married Tywin’s sister to a Frey. Worst, while Aegon V was on the throne there was nothing Tywin could do about it. He wanted to extinguish House Tarbeck and House Reyne, but King Aegon V would never accept Tywin’s idea of justice. Unless there was a different King, Tywin would never be free to do what he wanted to do to protect “the honor” of his House.

If something happened to Aegon V, the next in line would be Jaehaerys II (Aerys’ father). He was a weak man in body and spirit. If he took the crown, Aerys would be King sooner or later (and sooner if Jaehaerys died an untimely death). OTOH, if Aegon V lived, Aerys would never be King (and Tywin would never be free to punish his enemies).

By the simple rules of the GoT, Aerys and Tywin had every reason to want Aegon V dead. They had motive up the wazzoo. They also had means and opportunity.

In “The Mystery Knight” Daemon II Blackfyre dreams that a dragon will hatch and it turns out that the dragon is Egg becoming Aegon. So it is with Targaryen dreams about dragons. We are told that Aegon V and the Duncans were at Summerhall to “hatch a dragon”. Most read this literally as if they were going to hatch a dragon from an egg like Dany. This seems an odd belief based on the Dunk and Egg stories—these stories would suggest that they gathered in Summerhall to be at the birth (or hatching) of Rhaegar. He was the Targaryen that Aegon V expected to be TPTWP. The move to fulfill the prophecy required Rhaegar—the dragon—to be born. Real dragons (while a nice add-on) were not necessary to the moment. There was no reason for Aegon V to burn the joint down trying to hatch a real dragon from a real egg. That most likely seems way out of character, because it is.

But Aerys and Tywin had a reason to kill Aegon, his son and his Commander of the Kingsguard. All three had to go if Aerys was ever to have a chance to become King.

It is said that Rhaegar Targaryen was born at Summerhall while the fires raged. Knowing what we do about castles in Westeros that seems possible. As the summer palace of the Targaryens, it was likely made up of a number of buildings. One structure could burn, while a child was born in another. Rhaegar’s father, Aerys would have been at Summerhall. Grand Maester Pycelle would have been there as well. The family would have felt secure there. So secure that as far as we know; only Duncan the Tall was there from the Kingsguard.

It would have been relatively easy for a family member to murder somebody and cover their tracks. Poison is discussed often in the books and that would have been the easiest way to kill Egg, Dunk and Duncan (and in Pycelle, Aerys had a master poisoner at his disposal). Once they were dead, a cover-up was needed. In Westeros (and in our medieval society) sorcery has always been a perfect cover for the deeds of men. Once the King and his closest comrades were dead, it was only a matter of setting off pre-positioned supplies of wildfire to destroy the evidence and to blame the tragedy on sorcery gone wrong (and Aerys would have known all about wildfire from the stories about his uncle, Aerion Brightflame).

Within a year of Summerhall, Tywin was free to pursue genocide and extinguish House Tarbeck and House Reyne. Within three years, Jaehaerys II was dead and his son became King Aerys II.

Without the overlay of magic, the Tragedy at Summerhall makes perfect sense as political murder played as a winning move in the Game of Thrones. The myth of magic is a great way to cover-up the crime. The relation between Tywin and Aerys makes more sense when you consider them bound together by a dark secret. It gives a depth to everything from the rejection of Cersie for Rhaegar’s bride to Duskendale to the hire of Varys to the Tourney at Harrenhal to the Sack of King's Landing.

Perhaps this speculation is wrong and magic was at the core of the Tragedy at Summerhall, but I doubt it. AsoIaF is ultimately a story about people and the choices that they make when confronted with conflicts to their heart. If Summerhall was about magic, then this central mystery to the books wasn't about the human heart. OTOH, if it was a political murder then I think that would make the narrative more interesting and layered. Murder in place of magic would be more subversive and in sync with the plot twists that we know about.

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