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| Favorite team: | Florida |
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How can they even judge whether a fictional AI character is 18 or 17 years and 364 days old?
Look at the odds to make the CFB playoff. It's as obvious as can possibly be that somebody on the committee leaking news to Vegas after how Alabama was -3300 to make the playoffs even before the committee reveal.
Here are some things of note:
1. Most notably, ND's playoff odds are -520 to make the playoffs and +370 to not make the playoffs. Not coincidentally, those are almost exactly the same as the odds for Texas Tech to beat BYU.
2. Relatedly, Miami is -900 to not make the playoff and +570 to make the playoff. Apparently it's unlikely the committee will invite them even if Duke wins the ACC title. (Which would leave the ACC with no playoff teams.)
3. On a more minor note, Alabama's odds are actually now down to -1500 to make the playoff and +790 to miss the playoff. I guess there's a smidgen of chance that the committee will move Alabama out if they get routed by Georgia. The committee actually really didn't completely follow their "Championship Game can't move a team down in the rankings" philosophy last year with how SMU falled from 7th to 12th after losing to Clemson. However, they did follow a policy of not actually dropping a team from the playoffs due to a CCG loss.
LINK
Here are some things of note:
1. Most notably, ND's playoff odds are -520 to make the playoffs and +370 to not make the playoffs. Not coincidentally, those are almost exactly the same as the odds for Texas Tech to beat BYU.
2. Relatedly, Miami is -900 to not make the playoff and +570 to make the playoff. Apparently it's unlikely the committee will invite them even if Duke wins the ACC title. (Which would leave the ACC with no playoff teams.)
3. On a more minor note, Alabama's odds are actually now down to -1500 to make the playoff and +790 to miss the playoff. I guess there's a smidgen of chance that the committee will move Alabama out if they get routed by Georgia. The committee actually really didn't completely follow their "Championship Game can't move a team down in the rankings" philosophy last year with how SMU falled from 7th to 12th after losing to Clemson. However, they did follow a policy of not actually dropping a team from the playoffs due to a CCG loss.
LINK
Eh, there definitely seems to be somebody in the committee who leaks news to Vegas based on how Alabama was given -3300 odds to make the playoffs even before this ranking reveal while ND was at like -350.
ND will probably still make the playoffs if Texas Tech beats BYU.
ND’s odds to make the playoffs are actually up to -500 after the ranking reveal, which implies that the leaker on the committee is now saying that ND and Miami won’t be reversed next week. Not coincidentally, Texas Tech is also -500 favorites to beat BYU.
ND will probably still make the playoffs if Texas Tech beats BYU.
ND’s odds to make the playoffs are actually up to -500 after the ranking reveal, which implies that the leaker on the committee is now saying that ND and Miami won’t be reversed next week. Not coincidentally, Texas Tech is also -500 favorites to beat BYU.
re: Latest CFP is out
Posted by UFFan on 12/2/25 at 6:28 pm to castorinho
What’s with the double standard between Vandy and Alabama?
Vandy remains barely in the top 15 after a solid win over a ranked TN team? But Alabama needing the refs hope to beat Auburn moves them up a spot?
Vandy remains barely in the top 15 after a solid win over a ranked TN team? But Alabama needing the refs hope to beat Auburn moves them up a spot?
Probably, although we still haven’t seen what the committee will do if a team loses a CCG by 30 points or something.
re: Latest CFP is out
Posted by UFFan on 12/2/25 at 6:15 pm to castorinho
Regardless of whether ND should have been ahead of Alabama to begin with, moving Alabama ahead of ND on the basis of that abortion of a win over Auburn is BS.
re: SEC Basketball vs the Torvik Top 100 - post-Thanksgiving Update & This Week in the SEC
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:48 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I can't really find any source that clearly ranks the basketball conferences. Pomeroy doesn't provide conference rankings unless you buy his subscription which costs $24.95, and I'm not going to spend $25 for that. Sagarin has inexplicably stopped providing CBK rankings ever since April 2024.
re: LSU isn't a blue blood, and yet...
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:43 pm to white beans
IIRC, didn't LSU's president come up with the idea of the SWC and chair the first SWC meeting, but then decided to not have LSU join the conference?
Wasn't the BK hire supposed to be a smashing success?
re: SEC Basketball vs the Torvik Top 100 - post-Thanksgiving Update & This Week in the SEC
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
No, the SEC is probably not quite as tremendous as last year. But it's still the best bball conference again.
re: How did UCLA, VT and OK State get better hires than the SEC openings
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:27 pm to Utah_CUtiger
I had to look up who OK State's hire was.
How is getting the North Texas coach who went 22-15 better than anybody who the SEC hired?
I'm unhappy with the Sumrall hiring, but he has a better resume than OK State's new coach.
How is getting the North Texas coach who went 22-15 better than anybody who the SEC hired?
I'm unhappy with the Sumrall hiring, but he has a better resume than OK State's new coach.
For the last time, even if the committee assigns zero penalty to Alabama for losing the CCG, Alabama would miss the playoffs if they lose to UGA and BYU beats Texas Tech. Alabama is currently the last team in, and BYU would take their playoff spot. I mean, seriously, what's the committee going to do? Move Alabama ahead of Notre Dame as some kind of reward for Alabama losing to Georgia?
We'll see who leaves. It's only been a day or two now. Although I don't think I've ever seen the day or two after a coach's departure look this bad for a team before.
Edit: I forgot about how they've already hired Pete Golding as their new head coach. Now that I remember that, I definitely think they're falling off badly next year.
Edit: I forgot about how they've already hired Pete Golding as their new head coach. Now that I remember that, I definitely think they're falling off badly next year.
If Alabama loses to Georgia and Texas Tech loses to BYU, then Alabama is out of the playoffs even if the committee assigns zero penalty to Alabama losing the SEC title game.
BYU beating Texas Tech as a roughly 11.5 point underdog is a fairly big if, but t plenty of upsets like that have occurred before.
Georgia beating Alabama as 1.5 point favorites is actually what's (slightly) predicted to happen.
Yeah, in all likelihood, one of these two games (especially the former) will go Alabama's way. But I'm not really sure why Alabama is -3300 playoff odds on Fanduel.
Georgia beating Alabama as 1.5 point favorites is actually what's (slightly) predicted to happen.
Yeah, in all likelihood, one of these two games (especially the former) will go Alabama's way. But I'm not really sure why Alabama is -3300 playoff odds on Fanduel.
re: Alabama's a bubble-team that needs to win the SEC CG to guarantee a playoff spot
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:15 pm to GAT BoilerPickle Doc
Alabama is out of the playoffs if BYU beats Texas Tech and Georgia beats Alabama. I don't know why people don't realize that. The committee already made the decision to rank ND ahead of Alabama. Regardless of whether that was the correct decision in the first place, there would be no reason to reverse that decision based on Alabama barely beating Auburn last week and then losing to Georgia.
This is a bad year to be a bubble team, with how there were hardly any upsets after we quickly figured out how overrated a lot of top 10 preseason teams were (Clemson, PSU, LSU, and to some extent Texas).
This is a bad year to be a bubble team, with how there were hardly any upsets after we quickly figured out how overrated a lot of top 10 preseason teams were (Clemson, PSU, LSU, and to some extent Texas).
re: Wonky CFP committee precedent question
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:06 pm to Violent Hip Swivel
Even if they follow the "no penalty for losing a CCG game" rule, Alabama currently has the last spot in the playoff. And BYU would take Alabama's spot if BYU beats Texas Tech and Georgia beats Alabama.
I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel. Those odds don't really make sense unless they're expecting Alabama to pass ND in tomorrow night's playoff rankings. (Which itself wouldn't make much sense, but it would be even less sensible if Alabama passed ND after Alabama lost to Georgia.)
And that's not even accounting for things that I think are unlikely for the committee to do but that I wouldn't exactly assign 0% probability. (I.e. the possibility that if Duke wins the ACC championship, the committee might invite Miami and two Group of 5 champions to the playoffs, because they have to invite 5 champions, Duke would be such a ridiculous team to invite, and they want to invite somebody from the ACC.)
I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel. Those odds don't really make sense unless they're expecting Alabama to pass ND in tomorrow night's playoff rankings. (Which itself wouldn't make much sense, but it would be even less sensible if Alabama passed ND after Alabama lost to Georgia.)
And that's not even accounting for things that I think are unlikely for the committee to do but that I wouldn't exactly assign 0% probability. (I.e. the possibility that if Duke wins the ACC championship, the committee might invite Miami and two Group of 5 champions to the playoffs, because they have to invite 5 champions, Duke would be such a ridiculous team to invite, and they want to invite somebody from the ACC.)
re: Why does Bama jump AM?
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 1:02 pm to Hugh McElroy
The committee itself says that CCG losses won't hurt a team. (At least that's what the committee said and seemed to follow last year, and they haven't said anything contrary this year.)
However, Alabama will seemingly miss the playoffs if they lose the SEC title game and BYU beats Texas Tech. Just due to BYU taking the last playoff spot that Alabama currently holds. I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel.
However, Alabama will seemingly miss the playoffs if they lose the SEC title game and BYU beats Texas Tech. Just due to BYU taking the last playoff spot that Alabama currently holds. I don't really understand Alabama's -3300 odds to make the playoffs on FanDuel.
re: Conspiracy Theory on why Texas will not make CFP
Posted by UFFan on 12/1/25 at 12:45 pm to Tx Trailblazer
They won't get in because of 3 losses. One of the losses being to 4-8 UF, combined with close wins over Mississippi State and a Kentucky team that lost 41-0 to Louisville are icing on the cake.
Billy Napier probably had a better resume before UF than Sumrall does.
Posted by UFFan on 11/29/25 at 4:35 pm
Jesus Christ. Billy Napier probably had a better resume before UF than Sumrall does. Napier actually had a handful of decent wins like over eventual Big 12 and Fiesta Bowl champion Iowa State in 2020. Sumrall has nothing.
re: t.u. has really improved throughout the season
Posted by UFFan on 11/24/25 at 7:46 pm to ForgetTheRest
TU? Good God.
Had anybody except for Faggies fans heard of that abbreviation before Texas joined the SEC?
Had anybody except for Faggies fans heard of that abbreviation before Texas joined the SEC?
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