re: 2021-2022 Ski Thread

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Initial projections were 21" from this storm but now looking around 16" over the course of 2 days. Heading there for Christmas.

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16" will help a lot and we have a nice cloud deck over the mountains today keeping things chilly. So there's 24 hour snowmaking potential today through Saturday, along with a decent bounty from nature.

Not a hell of a lot of spread on the ensemble members this afternoon. Looking at Leadville and the 80 combined members of the GEFS and EPS, the range is 1-8". Sounds like a huge spread, but it's actually pretty tight for the location. Especially with only a few members hitting the low or high numbers, making a good case for 2-5" for most of Lake County except the high terrain.

Looking at the range for Red Cliff Pass (Copper Mountain/Vail Pass area):

Got a range of 3-9", with the bulk around 5-7". I do think underdone but ensembles don't have the resolution to do better and assume a straight 10:1 ratio.

You want the big fun though? Let's look at Telluride. The San Juans should crank snow with this and the ensembles agree.

GEFS mean is 13". A few sub 8" members and the rest are 14-15".

EPS with 11" as the mean.

But interestingly enough, the Euro ensembles are running hotter to the north than the GFS ensembles. Noting there are subtle differences in timing and where exactly the base of the trough slides through that will favor south or north.

Ok, so the Euro is phasing some southern stream energy in right over Colorado and all the energy hits over the divide. Hence the better snow numbers east. The GFS brings the southern energy just a little faster and it doesn't combine until the base of the trough is over the plains. Subtle little fly still in the ointment.

Good storm for your boy to learn on.

I'll do some nowcasting later on. You have to remember, for me, a good snowstorm is basically like getting a blowjob from an angel on a hybrid Christmas/Easter.

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constantly. Peru chair was no wait all day so spammed that a lot. It's mind boggling how many people just stop and camp out in the middle of a run all down the mountain.

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That was my go to. Pull up to the lot, pay $20 to skip the long line out on highway 6. Go up and hit the backside all day. End of day beers and short walk to the car

Winds on top of the mountains be like that. Sangres were rocking 100 mph gusts down my way last night. Next storm looks productive for Tahoe.

I got jack shite from the first wave but I know Leadville was reporting snow off and on all night.

The big story was Copper and Breck who managed about 6" with a really shitty wind direction for them. Aspen mountains also did better than the wind direction suggested. Must have been some really small scale thing enhancing snow.

Snowing currently at my Dad's in Utah. Waiting for it to start here, but honestly not expecting much till tonight here.

I was really surprised by the 6 inches at Copper I saw on OpenSnow. Another 8 inches today and tomorrow would be lovely.

Meanwhile, LCC is getting 20 inches today and tomorrow and another 20 next week... If only my family would move to SLC...

Heavenly opens the season on the 11th!

someone not getting any snow downvoting everything

Brighton got 8”

Damn jealous

Slowed down (and I overestimated a bit earlier). Still in a steady snow and got a little over 1/2". Should snow all night, 1-3" definitely on schedule. Should be doing as well on the mountains.

We need updates Duke! OpenSnow says 5 in at Copper, which I think is more than projected?

Looks like OpenSnow is projecting another 8 inches at Copper next week too. LET’S GO