re: Why is france such a huge favorite?

It's hard to argue when you start a thread with a false premise. France is -120 to win in regulation, sure its closer to -180 to lift the cup. But that's hardly "huge favorites."

The key for me is how much Croatia press the French back line. If it forces Lloris to go long, Giroud is a better hold up player than Kane, and Mbappe can do more with the second ball than Sterling can. There was sometimes 20 yards of space between Brozovic and Modric/Rakitic during pressing phases which left Croatia exposed to the second ball against England, situations that put Sterling in a good position.

Pressing as a unit upfield means that they can close the space down, but leave themselves vulnerable to balls into the space. Dropping off means they are less likely to win the ball upfield and catch France off guard in the transition phase. Not only that Croatia don't have a numerical advantage in midfield, and likely won't have immediate outballs available wide, as France's defensive shape is 4-3-3 ish and should mean that France and Croatia won't have free men in their defensive phases.

There are a lot of interesting tradeoffs to make for both teams. France's midfield quality is not that far off Croatia's, and Kante is as good at his job as Modric is at his. It's actually a really even matchup on paper. The key might be if Croatia decide to go to the low block, Umtiti is a good passer between the lines, and should be free to make passes. It might come down to the ball-playing ability of the French CB's, and the lack thereof by the Croatians.

Well everyone on both teams is mostly comfortable on the ball. Being pressured and panicking is something I would expect of England, but not of any player on France and Croatia, at least to the same degree. In France's offensive phase, if there is too much space behind Modric and Rakitic when they press, a wide player can move inside, bypassing the press, since they seem to insist on keeping Brozovic deeper. Griezemann, especially this tournament, isn't afraid to drop deep and dictate play if he can. The problem for Croatia is that France has the technical ability to deal with everything that Croatia like to do, and aren't physically deficient. It's going to come down to a couple of key phases. What if France decides to bypass the midfield and try to drop in on the chest of Giroud, who is really a superb target striker? What if Croatia presses high up the field which leaves space for Mbappe to run onto balls?

Croatia might have a slight advantage with regards to Perisic, who has been a wily sort of player this tournament. Perisic and Mandzukic can't be ignored, as Mandzukic presents similar problems to France's back line that Giroud presents to Croatia's, and is more dynamic and is a better scorer. Both Mandzukic and Giroud are excellent defensive forwards and will close down space, so to my eyes there isn't a real tactical advantage to be had on either side, and will come down to individual battles.

If I was France, I'd attempt to flood the middle if Croatia's midfield presses, and try to get Pavard upfied as an outlet to pin Croatia's weakest spot, LB, back. If I'm Croatia, I'd try to move it around the back quickly enough so that Giroud's closing down is avoided, and free passes are available to the midfield players, where one on one advantages can be pressed.

I like your analysis but I don’t think Giroud is all that great at closing down defenders. He puts in the effort but his speed limits him.

Croatia have started slowly, especially against England. But England played into their hands leaving Henderson on an island. They basically had a 2 v 1 in midfield for the last 75 minutes of the game. It won't be that easy against France, as the French also like to be compact. I can imagine a scenario where the French are comfortable enough to let Modric and Rakitic have some of the ball and try to draw them into areas where they can overload them, and then break. I can also imagine a situation where Mandzukic gets an inch of space and utilizes it. I have been super impressed by Varane in particular this tournament. He's been really good.

This game is hard to read for me. It could also be a game that goes 0-0 to ET and is won on penalties. France will probably be the aggressor, because their memories of what happened in Paris.

Selfishly, I'd like France to win the game so we can emulate the French youth system, as their use of regional schools would be the best solution to our problem with development as it relates to geography. But I wouldn't begrudge the best DLP of the tournament, Modric, again lifting the trophy, as has been the case since 2006. The difference between the French and Croatian midfield's is razor small though.

Was Kroos a DLP in 2014?

i don't think Germany had just one

Kroos, Schweinie, and Khedira started in their midfield

Yeah I consider him to be. Khedira was there to run around both going forwards and backwards, and Kroos was there to recycle possession and play passes forward. Germany's set up, from what I recall, also put a lot of emphasis on the CB's making passes, especially Boateng. In general, I'd consider Kroos a DLP generally. Do people consider Kroos to be some other type of player? He's not really mobile, he doesn't really dribble to find space, and he's always ready to offer an outlet once he releases the ball.

think strinic been starting. they basically been running 3 back tho with vida covering the left. he's played well tho