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re: Why are we doing this??
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:28 am to roadGator
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:28 am to roadGator
quote:
Yes. But I just think with numbers so small it’s important to be exact.
Fair enough.
Have you looked at the number of deaths and cases on a log graph? The plot is damn near linear. Is it unreasonable to think that won't change for the time being?
quote:
Anyway, do your thing if you want.
Instead of running away and thinking I am trying to flame the board with hysteria, look at the numbers.
2
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:47 am to EarlyCuyler3
Socialism doesn’t work!
Simple enough?
Simple enough?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 8:50 am to NYNolaguy1
Patient 31 in South Korea is a fine example of what can happen should an infected individual move around unchecked. Korea did a tremendous job preventing an outbreak initially, but this moron took it upon themselves to act a fool, and she's likely responsible for around 80% of the cases in that country now.
Just sit tight. This one spreads easily in the early stages of the epidemic, but that'll pass soon enough if people take this seriously and do what they're supposed to do.
Just sit tight. This one spreads easily in the early stages of the epidemic, but that'll pass soon enough if people take this seriously and do what they're supposed to do.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:04 am to mule74
The working class was doing too well, they need to get all the sheep back in line and show us who really controls things.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:09 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
The plot is damn near linear. Is it unreasonable to think that won't change for the time being?
Linear is the goal.
Active cases in China are down to around 10,000 around 10 weeks after the first case was identified (it had likely been around a while longer than that).
Is there a reason we won’t see the same drastic reduction in the number of active cases 4-6 weeks from now?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:12 am to the808bass
quote:
Linear is the goal
Linear on a log graph (i.e. it is exponential).
Current rates since March 1st is that this is infecting 10 times as many people every 9 days, and killing 10 times as many people every 14 days.
Thats been constant since March 1st.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:12 am to the808bass
quote:
Is there a reason we won’t see the same drastic reduction in the number of active cases 4-6 weeks from now?
I really hope the rate slows down before then....
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:21 am to mule74
Why is Cuomo on the tube again?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:22 am to Bigbens42
quote:God damn you a retard
Millions potentially infected, potentially close to 2 million dead. The economic losses are recoverable once the FUD ends, the lives are not.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 9:32 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
I realize I am probably the only one on this board actually following the numbers, but yesterdays death count (18) just about doubled from the day before (11). It is an exponential curve. When it tops 80 deaths a day will you pay attention? At the current rate that line will be crossed in a week and a half.
You are cherry picking stats to support your conclusion. The days before it went from 8-3-8-8 then 11 to 18.
Diabetes, cancer, smoking....all over 1,000 deaths/day.
You are suggesting a potential daily death rate of 80 is reason to shut down the world, guarantee economic failure if it drags on, which will certainly result in more deaths than this virus.
A balanced plan with healthcare AND economic advisors seems more prudent.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 10:27 am to dsides
quote:
You are cherry picking stats to support your conclusion. The days before it went from 8-3-8-8 then 11 to 18.
Diabetes, cancer, smoking....all over 1,000 deaths/day.
You are suggesting a potential daily death rate of 80 is reason to shut down the world, guarantee economic failure if it drags on, which will certainly result in more deaths than this virus.
A balanced plan with healthcare AND economic advisors seems more prudent.
I wouldn't be concerned if I thought the 80 deaths would stay at 80.
Since March 1st the exponential rate of deaths and new cases has been near constant.
Do you have excel on your computer?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:02 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
I wouldn't be concerned if I thought the 80 deaths would stay at 80.
Since March 1st the exponential rate of deaths and new cases has been near constant.
Do you have excel on your computer?
Dude, understanding linear vs. exponential growth is not difficult. I hear what you are saying, but check back when you have a larger data set with material numbers. I'm sure you can't wait to prove me wrong.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:06 am to dsides
quote:
I hear what you are saying, but check back when you have a larger data set with material numbers. I'm sure you can't wait to prove me wrong.
Thats fair. I hope I am wrong and you can come back in two months and say what an idiot I am.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:10 am to mule74
Economy won't return?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:12 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
I really hope the rate slows down before then....
The rate will have to slow well before then to have a marked decrease in active cases.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:26 am to used2becool
The great depression begs to differ with you. The greatest and at the same time most tragically accurate statement was "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself"...This nation was in no way prepared for the thirties. And that was a nation of people tougher and more resilient to the power of 10 over the weak, entitlement current generation.
If the economy falls some people will be frankly out of control committing horrible crimes while others will paying for space to jump out of high windows. Stay tuned. Now what is going to happen? The spring will naturally cause a turn down in activity and some of the novelty will wear off and the steps the government is taking will help and we'll likely survive. Much to the chagrin of the media. BTW, where were all of you end of time advocates when 80K (according to a report) died of flu in 2018. In the USA. If over a couple of thousand die from this by the summer I'll be shocked.
If the economy falls some people will be frankly out of control committing horrible crimes while others will paying for space to jump out of high windows. Stay tuned. Now what is going to happen? The spring will naturally cause a turn down in activity and some of the novelty will wear off and the steps the government is taking will help and we'll likely survive. Much to the chagrin of the media. BTW, where were all of you end of time advocates when 80K (according to a report) died of flu in 2018. In the USA. If over a couple of thousand die from this by the summer I'll be shocked.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 6:31 pm to mule74
I’m still wondering WTF we are doing this for.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 1:12 pm to mule74
Can we stop pretending like this was a big deal now and open up our economy?
Posted on 4/12/20 at 1:13 pm to mule74
Because it was her turn. Time to turn this country into North Korea because it was her turn.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 1:15 pm to mule74
quote:
Can we stop pretending like this was a big deal now and open up our economy?
They're all-in, kind of like the russia, russia, russia thing that nobody wants to talk about now.
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