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Message
re: While Putin doubles down in Ukraine, his gas gambit is failing
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Uh, that is making the end closer and making the conflict end more quickly. That's the whole point
If you assume that the only end is complete surrender by either Russia or Ukraine. That certainly wasn’t the case when this started. And it’s unlikely that is the ultimate end either way.
More likely, this will end in a compromise…or what no one here wants, this is going to significantly escalate.
1
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Uh, just because I post an article doesn't mean I agree with every word in it
You literally quoted that part and you haven’t replied to anyone who took exception with that part.
Why don’t you clearly explain what let’s if that article you agree with.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:47 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
What would we do if Putin successfully transferred nukes to Cuba, and we knew they would be operational within weeks?
Well they’re already there. Why isn’t he attacking any of those countries?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:48 pm to moneyg
quote:
That certainly wasn’t the case when this started.
That depends on how much Ukraine would have to give up for it to not be unconditional surrender.
quote:
More likely, this will end in a compromise
Putin has kind of backed Russia into a corner, here. He won't give up the areas he's taken (it's real reason for invasion). He's not going to permit Ukraine to maintain autonomous sovereignty.
So the question is if Putin can even compromise, at this point, without being ousted. What is he going to give up to make peace?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:49 pm to moneyg
quote:
You literally quoted that part and you haven’t replied to anyone who took exception with that part.
I quoted as much as permitted by the rules here to summarize the article. It wasn't a curation.
I haven't replied because I don't necessarily agree with the comment and the point is irrelevant to the main summary of the article (that Europe has supplies for winter)
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:52 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Secondary sanctions are coming at some point, like with Iran. Going to be much more difficult to be a middle man.
then you will see riots all over Europe
there is a delicate balance right now BUT if we see a spike in demand and/or a disruption then the shite will hit the fan with the quickness
a second set of sanctions would be a serious disruption
many EU countries have their own significant gas resources, they have been relatively slow (poland) to indifferent (greece) to fully develop them.
the Paris Climate Accords and ESG have also kicked the EU O&G Industry in the nuts
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:55 pm to David_DJS
quote:sho is...
My comment was a general one, and I think it’s a fair observation. A shitload of the Ukraine conflict cheerleaders were also Covid cheerleaders.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 7:56 pm to supatigah
Oh the Russian invasion is going to be the most anti-Green agent of chaos in history likely
Posted on 10/10/22 at 8:05 pm to SlowFlowPro
most of Europe is at >90% of their gas stores right now, which is part of the premise this article is based on
HOWEVAH a lot of that was done with Russian gas flowing to them directly and supplementing their LNG purchasing
what will be interesting is to see how Europe replenishes their gas consumed this winter with no Russian gas directly available.
how much economic pain can some of these countries take?
does govt shut down industry to provide gas to homes if consumption is too high? that will cause layoffs
HOWEVAH a lot of that was done with Russian gas flowing to them directly and supplementing their LNG purchasing
what will be interesting is to see how Europe replenishes their gas consumed this winter with no Russian gas directly available.
how much economic pain can some of these countries take?
does govt shut down industry to provide gas to homes if consumption is too high? that will cause layoffs
Posted on 10/10/22 at 8:11 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I think their supply is full but it was costly. Like I've said over and over, these are the costs I'm talking about from Russia invading Ukraine. The whole world is going to suffer hundreds of billions (possibly trillions) because of this invasion.
quote:
It's going to be the cost for a while unless Russia really gives in bigly.
quote:
Europe isn't going to be buying Russian gas for a long while, most likely. I could be wrong and Russia may give up unconditionally relatively quickly, which would increase the chance of Europe buying gas again, but I don't think anyone really believes it's going to happen.
quote:
Is he also surrounding and withdrawing from Ukraine? Because that's what it's going to take for Europe to reconsider sanctions in response to the invasion.
quote:
I've been saying for weeks this invasion is costing Europe hundreds of billions of dollars. You're making assumptions that the EU will lift sanctions relatively easily, which they have not shown to be willing to do.
quote:
As I've been arguing on here for some time. Russia's invasion is costing the world a LOT more than what little we've sent Ukraine in aid.
You seem VERY confident, almost cavalier, that EU countries will maintain these sanctions against Russia, no matter the suffering in their own countries.
And yet…
Hungary PM Orban says EU sanctions on Russia have "backfired"
’End the energy sanctions against Russia because we are on our knees,’ says Italian candidate Matteo Salvini
70,000 people take to streets of Prague to protest against anti-Russian sanctions, arms supplies to Ukraine
French far right leader Le Pen calls for an end to 'useless' Russia sanctions
Posted on 10/10/22 at 8:32 pm to Lightning
quote:
Hungary PM Orban says EU sanctions on Russia have "backfired"
Anti-"globalist" leader
quote:
Matteo Salvini
BIG time anti-EU pol
quote:
Le Pen
Anti-EU pol
So politicians are opportunists? Who knew?
quote:
70,000 people take to streets of Prague to protest against anti-Russian sanctions, arms supplies to Ukraine
Similar to Germany. Some anti-Establishment parties trying to churn up support.
quote:
The event was organized by several political parties and organizations, including the Communist Party of the Czech Republic and the Eurosceptic Tricolor Citizens’ Movement.
So Extremists also being opportunists against the sitting government.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 8:44 pm to SlowFlowPro
thats all fine and good until the independents and Pro- EU factions join the fight because they cant pay their light bill
Posted on 10/10/22 at 8:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
Looks like the Euros will be able to muddle through, but there will likely be some industrial casualties in some countries (especially Germany). France should have its crap together in the next 12 to 18 months but will require some investment in its aging nuclear fleet.
A February or early March cold snap will be brutal through unless the winter is warmer than normal.
A February or early March cold snap will be brutal through unless the winter is warmer than normal.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:12 pm to SlowFlowPro
You can dismiss it as “anti-EU,” “far right” (but also far left! ), “anti-Establishment,” “anti-globalist,” “extremists” but it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
There are fractures in EU countries already over this issue, despite you making excuses over every single example. You are very convinced that these countries will not reverse course on sanctions, when there are tens of thousands in the streets already saying they want to end these sanctions.
You're giving very “Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make” vibes here.
The average European doesn’t actually care that much about Ukrainians if it comes down to a them or us choice.
Call Orban what you want but Hungary is IN NATO, IN the EU, lived under the thumb of Soviet rule for 40 years and are *still* calling for an end to the sanctions.
They’re also building a pipeline with Serbia for Russian oil
Hungary and Serbia to build pipeline to transport Russian oil
But yes, this is fine, everything is fine. Keep repeating that and burying your head in the sand as Orban says “governments in Europe are collapsing ‘like dominoes'”.
), “anti-Establishment,” “anti-globalist,” “extremists” but it doesn’t mean it’s not happening. There are fractures in EU countries already over this issue, despite you making excuses over every single example. You are very convinced that these countries will not reverse course on sanctions, when there are tens of thousands in the streets already saying they want to end these sanctions.
You're giving very “Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make” vibes here.
The average European doesn’t actually care that much about Ukrainians if it comes down to a them or us choice.
Call Orban what you want but Hungary is IN NATO, IN the EU, lived under the thumb of Soviet rule for 40 years and are *still* calling for an end to the sanctions.
They’re also building a pipeline with Serbia for Russian oil
Hungary and Serbia to build pipeline to transport Russian oil
But yes, this is fine, everything is fine. Keep repeating that and burying your head in the sand as Orban says “governments in Europe are collapsing ‘like dominoes'”.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Putin has kind of backed Russia into a corner, here. He won't give up the areas he's taken (it's real reason for invasion). He's not going to permit Ukraine to maintain autonomous sovereignty.
So the question is if Putin can even compromise, at this point, without being ousted. What is he going to give up to make peace?
So, you are admitting that the policy that you support doesn't have a positive outcome?
You ever been in a pissing contest with someone as stubbornly arrogant as yourself? Did it ever make you wonder if you shouldn't have been in the pissing contest in the first place?
You think Putin is concerned with putting his people through economic hardship? How much economic hardship does the world need to go through to reach this end you desire? Will it be worth it?
At best, you look back and regret the cost of this. At worst, this costs the lives of Americans. Of course, you have nothing to risk there. You are playing a game. It's easy when you don't have children or people you love.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:21 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How long can Putin last? Assuming this is true, why would the US, Poland, EU, etc. destroy the pipeline? The theory is that the US did it to make sure the EU didn't bend the knee, but if the EU has already secured enough in supply, this makes no sense. If the EU doesn't bend the knee, the sanctions would prevent flow to Europe.
You have been wrong on all things PUTIN. If you really believe PUTIN is going to lose then you likely voted for the potato.
The United States (I love the country I used to know) has become a completely corrupt and pathetic shithole. But, you just go on believing the propaganda "media".
TRUMP 2024!
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I've actually been posting for some time about investing in Central America, both to thwart Chinese influence on the US and to make this sort of scenario unlikely. Trade is peace. Trade is development.
Has anyone seen you and Jeb Bush at the same time? I’m not sure I could tell y’all apart
Posted on 10/10/22 at 9:57 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Sanctions against Russia aren't going away anytime soon.
And?
The longer sanctions are imposed on Russia the more desperate they’ll become with the use of tactical nukes in Ukraine.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:47 pm to Decatur
quote:yes
By chance is your first language something other than English?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 6:23 am to moneyg
quote:
So, you are admitting that the policy that you support doesn't have a positive outcome?
For Putin? Diplomatically? Probably not. He made a huge mistake. His only positive outcome is total military victory.
That's not "my" policy. Putin has just put himself and Russia in a terrible spot, diplomatically.
quote:
You ever been in a pissing contest with someone as stubbornly arrogant as yourself? Did it ever make you wonder if you shouldn't have been in the pissing contest in the first place?
Again, that's Putin. He thought the West was too weak because of Covid and was too arrogant because of the appeasement in 2014. He miscalculated. Bigly. Now he's stuck diplomatically and domestically.
quote:
You think Putin is concerned with putting his people through economic hardship? How much economic hardship does the world need to go through to reach this end you desire? Will it be worth it?
Putin is concerned with his oligarch buddies killing him and one of them taking over. That's why he's boxed into a corner. He made expectations too high and can't give an inch without risking a coup.
quote:
At best, you look back and regret the cost of this. At worst, this costs the lives of Americans. Of course, you have nothing to risk there. You are playing a game. It's easy when you don't have children or people you love.
I don't support US boots on the ground. This conflict doesn't need boots on the ground (I imagine there will be some spec ops here or there but not an actual force). Money and military support? Different story.
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