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What's the probability CPI is lower than expected tomorrow?
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:35 pm
I won't be surprised if February CPI is reported under .5....if this is the case there will be some discussions on whether the Fed can pause rate hikes to see what March CPI brings.
But what if February CPI is higher than January ........now what, does the Fed continue to raise rates?
But what if February CPI is higher than January ........now what, does the Fed continue to raise rates?
11
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:39 pm to Bass Tiger
Fed needs to pull off the bandaid and raise the rates
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:40 pm to Bass Tiger
All the banking mess is deflationary but
its not baked into this number
it will still be pretty high
its not baked into this number
it will still be pretty high
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:40 pm to Bass Tiger
Its going to be
Shelter costs make up 43% of the report and that is starting to catch up
May 10th we will see significant drop
Shelter costs make up 43% of the report and that is starting to catch up
May 10th we will see significant drop
Posted on 3/13/23 at 7:58 pm to Bass Tiger
Who really knows the real numbers...
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:00 pm to TOPAL
quote:
Who really knows the real numbers...
Usually 3 months after they are due when they make corrections
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:08 pm to cajuntiger1010
Fed has to follow the Volker model.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:10 pm to GoldenGuy
But even 3 months later they still aren’t correct either
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:12 pm to Bass Tiger
They fricked everyone who bought i-bonds.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:12 pm to Bass Tiger
Reddit Politics believes a soft landing is imminent in ‘23 or ‘24. I don’t know where they get that confidence from lol
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:16 pm to cajuntiger1010
quote:
Fed needs to pull off the bandaid and raise the rates
Wouldn't that create more banking problems with their asset ratios?
If a bank has Tbonds at 2% as an asset reserve, then the government starts issuing them at 4%, what is the liquid value of that 2% bond now? The bank's reserves have just been cut in half.
Run on the bank.
Bank collapses.
Government bails out whoever they choose to be a winner and says frick you to whoever they decide to be a loser.
Rate changes have to be gradual.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:23 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Rate changes have to be gradual.
I agree, But slowplaying the rate whenever inflation is still high is just causing the economic downfall to prolong become worse
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:23 pm to cajuntiger1010
quote:
Fed needs to pull off the bandaid and raise the rates
And, their should be ZERO bailouts. Including paying more than the insured 250k amounts.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:28 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
I won't be surprised if February CPI is reported under .5
Expectations are .4 but then January came in higher than expected (which is what started driving the possibility of .5 for the next meeting) due to a jump in spending (after it had dropped in November and December).
If it's .5 or more, I think we can be sure of a .5 increase at the next meeting.
This post was edited on 3/13/23 at 8:41 pm
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:33 pm to Bard
quote:
.5 increase at the next meeting.
.5 increase will make everything so interesting. I’m expecting a .25 increase
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:46 pm to Bass Tiger
I don't have a clue what any of this shite means.
But it's obvious that the morons making the decisions don't have a clue about any of it either.
But it's obvious that the morons making the decisions don't have a clue about any of it either.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 8:59 pm to Bass Tiger
The fed is stuck. Inflation is based on supply this time instead of low monetary restrictions. Raising interest rates does not fix the supply issue but makes it worse. They are phucked because they are not the smartest people in the room.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:18 pm to Dgarne2
Based on the price of ribeyes the cpi will be up.
I do believe folks are tapped out of cash, and a huge reduction in restaurant , entertainment, and travel is happening now. Vendors will push pricing to adjust for lower volume .
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:08 am to deeprig9
quote:
Wouldn't that create more banking problems with their asset ratios?
If a bank has Tbonds at 2% as an asset reserve, then the government starts issuing them at 4%, what is the liquid value of that 2% bond now? The bank's reserves have just been cut in half.
Run on the bank.
Bank collapses.
I think a lot of banks are holding a shite ton of treasuries yielding less than 2%.....yeah, it's that bad. It's crazy to think the "smart people" in banking didn't know or simply ignored that ZIRP/QE/deficit spending would eventually rear its ugly head as surging inflation and higher interest rates.
Government bails out whoever they choose to be a winner and says frick you to whoever they decide to be a loser.
Rate changes have to be gradual.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:11 am to TomShelby
quote:
CPI for all items rises 0.4% in February as shelter increases #CPI
Shelter continues to keep the report hotter than it is
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