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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:58 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
There is pretty good evidence from across the globe that social distancing and lockdowns had a tremendous effect on reduced transmission rates. It follows the math behind it so it's highly likely that its accurate.
"Pretty good evidence" again based on assumptions. In order to determine an "effect" on transmission rates, you'd have to know what the transmission rates would have been without such measures....and then you'd have to be able to rule out other possibilities. (i.e.: the bug running its course; the unknown numbers of those who had the disease and never knew who were then immune, reducing available hosts; the propensity of the remaining population to get the disease, etc...) That is "unknown" and impossible to quantify by any objective scientific measure. You can certainly "assume" because it is plausible, but at the end of the day, you don't really have anything to measure other than those assumptions. I find it funny how most of those who jump to proclaim the "validity" of these projections are the same ones who say there is no "valid evidence" that hydrochloroquine has any effect on the disease...because there is not enough scientific testing.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:06 am to rumproast
quote:
"Pretty good evidence" again based on assumptions. In order to determine an "effect" on transmission rates, you'd have to know what the transmission rates would have been without such measures....
We do have some data on that.
quote:
and then you'd have to be able to rule out other possibilities. (i.e.: the bug running its course; the unknown numbers of those who had the disease and never knew who were then immune, reducing available hosts; the propensity of the remaining population to get the disease, etc...) That is "unknown" and impossible to quantify by any objective scientific measure. You can certainly "assume" because it is plausible, but at the end of the day, you don't really have anything to measure other than those assumptions.
We have R(0) rates from before and after measures were taken from multiple sources around the world.
quote:
I find it funny how most of those who jump to proclaim the "validity" of these projections are the same ones who say there is no "valid evidence" that hydrochloroquine has any effect on the disease...because there is not enough scientific testing.
Meh. I'm all for treating this with HCQ. It's not perfect evidence but its pretty good and that's all we have right now.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:16 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
The low end projections account for highly effective social distancing and lockdown measures.
This is like arguing with the Black Knight over his flesh wound. No matter how many people die, from 20,000 to 500,000, the models were accurate.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:17 am to Flats
Some people are biased to trust the peer-reviewed experts. Even when they’re wrong.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:18 am to Flats
quote:
This is like arguing with the Black Knight over his flesh wound. No matter how many people die, from 20,000 to 500,000, the models were accurate.
It's more like arguing with people who want simple, incorrect answers rather than complex, correct ones.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:19 am to Antonio Moss
Lolzy.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:22 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
It's more like arguing with people who want simple, incorrect answers rather than complex, correct ones.
“”Correct” just like my hurricane analogy. Throwing a swag out there that covers a range that it literally an order of magnitude from low end to high end isn’t difficult, requires little expertise and sure as hell doesn’t qualify as a model.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:27 am to Flats
quote:
“”Correct” just like my hurricane analogy
Your hurricane analogy is shite. Someone tried it on the OT yesterday and it was thoroughly dismissed. It would only make sense if the Hurricane was traveling at 100 mph where it was going to hit the U.S. in 30 hours instead of three weeks.
Sure, no one in their right mind is going to call for evacuations under your scenario because we would have 14-18 days to gather better data before action had to be taken.
That's not the case with infectious disease spread. If you wait 14 days, then we most likely realize the outcomes at the upper ends of the models while we gather better data.
So like I said - simple, incorrect answers for simple people.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:28 am to ImaObserver
quote:
What alternate comprehensive data was there available that you consider more suitable?
there wasn't any which is the problem with taking drastic measures, especially on large scales
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:30 am to Shaun176
quote:
Plus, they are running stories for Drs. And nurses on the frontline to scare people. If they have enough time to reflect and interview, it must be getting better.
I have a doctor friend who keeps blabbering about how bad this is, never seen anything like it...posts on FB several times a day. I know when I’m busy I don’t even get on TD.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:33 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
So like I said - simple, incorrect answers for simple people.
You owe Hank a commission. That’s his schtick.
I predict that Donald Trump will get between 40% and 60% of the popular vote in the election. Bow before my genius intellect and complex election model.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:33 am to YouAre8Up
quote:
This is what happens when you let medical people and scientist make policy and restrictions over a country. These people along with their friends in the media caused a mass panic.
When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail....
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