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re: UPDATED: When Will We Reach Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT)
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:50 am to ShoeBang
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:50 am to ShoeBang
quote:
If you test more, you will get more positives, even if the infection rate stays the same. I thought that was common, easy to understand knowledge
By this logic, stop testing and the virus goes away.
Herd immunity means the spread of the virus is kept under control and thus the infection rate drops. Neither of those are happening in Louisiana despite the OP saying we reached herd immunity back in May.
3
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:54 am to the808bass
quote:
I think the NY numbers should caution us a bit about a relatively low HIT.
The one factor not accounted for is population density, public transportation, and time spent indoors for a particular area. These factors will effect the HIT so I don’t think his estimation is perfect but my guess is it will be close.
NYC will be an outlier because of very high population density.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:55 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
The CDC estimates the IFR at 0.65% and the largest meta analysis (continually adding studies) estimates it at 0.69%.
waaay to high
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:56 am to deathvalleytiger10
quote:
How do you explain Louisiana cases still climbing?
one way is people having to take multiple test to get 2 negatives to go back to work....So to break it down in simple terms for you....you get a positive test on the initial test....well if you go a week later you still could have it...week after that still could have it....well there you go 1 person has 3 positive test.....which means to the government 3 new cases
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:00 am to TigerStripes30
Same thing happens here in Alabama. You have to test negative twice to get out of the hospital. Every positive test counts as a new case.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:01 am to TigerStripes30
Herd immunity has never used numbers from testing asymptotic people either. Imagine if we tested everyone in a household and everyone that someone works with bc that person tested positive for flu. We’d have 10x more cases probably that never actually originated. This is been so manufactured to create political turmoil even the best sources of data are not reliable to other models of HIT.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:02 am to deathvalleytiger10
quote:
If you test more, you will get more positives, even if the infection rate stays the same. I thought that was common, easy to understand knowledge
By this logic, stop testing and the virus goes away.
no
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:05 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
The CDC estimates the IFR at 0.65% and the largest meta analysis (continually adding studies) estimates it at 0.69%.
It doesn't strike you as odd that it would increase from .26% to .65% during a period of increasing cases without a commensurate increase in deaths?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:10 am to moneyg
quote:
quote:
If you test more, you will get more positives, even if the infection rate stays the same. I thought that was common, easy to understand knowledge
By this logic, stop testing and the virus goes away.
no
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:13 am to deathvalleytiger10
quote:
Neither of those are happening in Louisiana despite the OP saying we reached herd immunity back in May.
You can't know that since we have no accurate data on the number of people infected, in hospitals, how many died, the number of positives the number of negatives. We have no real data on any of that. We should but the fraud has been well documented.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:17 am to deathvalleytiger10
quote:
By this logic, stop testing and the virus goes away.
No.
Stop testing and you will stop getting positive results. Obviously this doesn't mean the virus is gone any more than increased testing means the virus is worsening.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:19 am to ML Crisis
quote:
It doesn't strike you as odd that it would increase from .26% to .65% during a period of increasing cases without a commensurate increase in deaths?
I was just going to say the same thing. I’d LOVE to know how they came to this conclusion
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:24 am to CptRusty
The 7 day rolling average of deaths in Louisiana is 21.
The 7 day rolling average of deaths in Louisiana on June 4th when Louisiana entered Phase 2 was 21.
The 7 day rolling average of deaths in Louisiana on June 4th when Louisiana entered Phase 2 was 21.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:27 am to moneyg
quote:
waaay to high
It seems odd to double it this late in the game.
But I also suspect that our poor health population is driving this number up.
China had a CFR early on of 1.something in one of their early studies. And that made us suspect that the mortality was sub .5. But I don’t think that took into account the amount of pre-existing immunity China had.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:34 am to BaldEagleHey
As soon as we reach herd immunity from the common cold virus.
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