UPDATED: Florida election analysis - anyone follow this guy?

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He and a few others strongly believe Trump will win easily and there are others that say Biden will cruise. Someone is way off.

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I used to follow him on other websites. He was wrong about 2012.

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1) FL numbers

First, Vote by Mail (VBM)
49.3% of requested D ballots have been returned
44.5% of R ballots have been returned

10/20/20 #s:
Ds 1,291,463 (48.5%)
REPs 808,962 (30.4%)
(Two weeks ago this was 55-29%)
Ds lead in VBM 482,501

Magic # for Ds in VBM: Lead by 653,000
They have turned down drastically in incoming ballots over the last two days, averaging just over 10,000 a day. If that keeps up (but even that should slow) they will add 110,000 VBM, or finish with a lead of 590,000---63,000 short.

2) Just for comparison, in 2016 Ds finished VBM (mostly absentee in 2016) and In Person Early Voting (walk in) with a lead of 88,000.

So the dynamic of having people vote early has changed massively, yet the Ds will barely beat their 2016 lead (Trump won FL, remember?).

3) Let's move on to what is now also occurring, "In Person Early Voting" (IPEV or "walk in voting").

R lead of 3,809

Magic Number for Rs to hit in IPEV: +265,375

Combined VBM+IPEV Magic Number for Rs to hit by Election Day this year: Dem lead of 217,00

4) These #s courtesy of "Freeper" SpeedyinTexas.

5) From "Freeper" bort:
Miami-Dade numbers from yesterday, in-person early voting:

15,278 Republicans

19,237 Democrats.

That, my friends, is good news.

6) One more tidbit from Speedy: Ds have requested 802,947 more VBM ballots than Rs.
If their VBM lead ends up at 592k that = 74% !

Does 74% sound familiar? That is their VBM returned % in 2016 AND their overall turnout in 2016. At 74%, Dems lose. They need around 80.5%.

7) So, for those of you mathematically challenged like me, I will translate from Swahili:

Ds are behind their mail in ballot rate from 2016 by over 6%. They look to be short about 63,000 depending on the strength of R walk-in voting (which right now is pretty darn good).

8) In 2106, Rs lost IPEV on first day by 24,007. Won this year by 3,809.

In 2016, Rs who did NOT vote by mail, cast 55% of votes IPEV & 45% on Election Day. That ratio could change this year, maybe 50/50 or 40/60.

10% of counties haven't walk-in voted yet. These are mostly R.

9) And this from a FL poll watcher for Seminole County Longwood Hunt Club library. "I noticed yesterday that anytime the line had a lull, about 10 minutes later every other voter was surrendering a VBM ballot that they had probably intended to deposit in the box outside" so these seniors can wait in a line to drop a VBM in a mail box but can't wait in a line to vote in person. Sheesh.

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