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Message
Trump's current poll lead over Biden is staggering.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:54 am
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:54 am
First take a look at the 2020 Trump v. Biden polling.
We like to use polling as a predictive measure of election outcomes going into the election. Campaigns use polls to adjust their message or messaging strategy.
We all knew going into the 2020 election there was a polling bias for Biden and we can look back and see...it was a 2.7% polling bias for Biden. But note, if you remove all those fraudulent votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and everywhere else the polling bias for Biden in 2020 becomes massive. But kudos to the polling firms to account for extra fake ballots that Biden would receive in 2020 to get the aggregate 2020 polling bias margin of 2.7%. 2.7% is not horrible but it is significant. I mean, that's 4.2 million ballots in 2020. In the right counties 4.2 million votes can swing an election one way or the other with ease.
Anyway, here is a snapshot of 2020 Trump v. Biden:
Now lets move on to the current polling. Holy shite Trump as a 3.8% lead in the aggregate going into 2024. Trump NEVER lead in 2020 in any poll including the Trump bias poll Rasmussen.
The question is, are polling firms still maintaining a Biden bias? Are they overtly giving Trump a bias this time as to force Biden out?
If not, the Democrats have a frick LOAD of cheating to do in election 2024. The Democrats had the perfect storm in 2020 to cheat. They went in with a polling bias of 11.2 million ballot buffer from the 2020 aggregate polls and they still almost did not pull it off. The margin in WI, AZ, and GA was ~42,500 that would have given Trump the electoral votes to secure 2020. But we know the rest of the story.
I know elections are fluid and polling can change in a heartbeat. I also know single polls can be deceiving. However polls are useful especially when viewed in the aggregate.
Furthermore I realize presidential elections come down to state polling, specifically swing states. At this time there is not enough current general election swing state polling. In fact there is only one 2024 GE Pennsylvania Trump v. Biden poll and Biden is leading by 8 in that poll. Damn, the people of PA love them some Biden. With that said Trump lost PA by 1.2% in 2020 so that 8 point Biden lead in PA is sus.
We like to use polling as a predictive measure of election outcomes going into the election. Campaigns use polls to adjust their message or messaging strategy.
We all knew going into the 2020 election there was a polling bias for Biden and we can look back and see...it was a 2.7% polling bias for Biden. But note, if you remove all those fraudulent votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and everywhere else the polling bias for Biden in 2020 becomes massive. But kudos to the polling firms to account for extra fake ballots that Biden would receive in 2020 to get the aggregate 2020 polling bias margin of 2.7%. 2.7% is not horrible but it is significant. I mean, that's 4.2 million ballots in 2020. In the right counties 4.2 million votes can swing an election one way or the other with ease.
Anyway, here is a snapshot of 2020 Trump v. Biden:
Now lets move on to the current polling. Holy shite Trump as a 3.8% lead in the aggregate going into 2024. Trump NEVER lead in 2020 in any poll including the Trump bias poll Rasmussen.
The question is, are polling firms still maintaining a Biden bias? Are they overtly giving Trump a bias this time as to force Biden out?
If not, the Democrats have a frick LOAD of cheating to do in election 2024. The Democrats had the perfect storm in 2020 to cheat. They went in with a polling bias of 11.2 million ballot buffer from the 2020 aggregate polls and they still almost did not pull it off. The margin in WI, AZ, and GA was ~42,500 that would have given Trump the electoral votes to secure 2020. But we know the rest of the story.
I know elections are fluid and polling can change in a heartbeat. I also know single polls can be deceiving. However polls are useful especially when viewed in the aggregate.
Furthermore I realize presidential elections come down to state polling, specifically swing states. At this time there is not enough current general election swing state polling. In fact there is only one 2024 GE Pennsylvania Trump v. Biden poll and Biden is leading by 8 in that poll. Damn, the people of PA love them some Biden. With that said Trump lost PA by 1.2% in 2020 so that 8 point Biden lead in PA is sus.
18
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:56 am to GumboPot
Means hes up by like 30
We are inching closer to another AJones was right. And thats not a good thinf
We are inching closer to another AJones was right. And thats not a good thinf
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:58 am to GumboPot
This is why they have no choice but to replace Biden. Polling generally skews Democrat, as shown by polling data vs results in 2020 (even including the fraud). If the polls show Trump winning by 3, than means that he's actually winning by 7. No way the Dems go into the 2024 general election with those kinds of numbers.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:59 am to SDVTiger
quote:
We are inching closer to another AJones was right. And thats not a good thinf
Yeah. They see Trump as the modern version of Adolf Hitler. If election cheating and lawfare won't work they will obviously resort to what Alex Soros alluded to in the Atlantic Magazine a few days ago.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:59 am to GumboPot
So when Biden “wins” what do these polls mean?
If a group commits election fraud in the forest and no one investigates it, does it make a sound?
If a group commits election fraud in the forest and no one investigates it, does it make a sound?
Posted on 1/26/24 at 8:59 am to GumboPot
Maybe they are trying to get Texas to secede to save themselves?
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:01 am to MAADFACTS
quote:
Maybe they are trying to get Texas to secede to save themselves?
Deal.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:01 am to ShoeBang
quote:
So when Biden “wins” what do these polls mean?
IDK.
I'm looking at past and current polls and trying to apply the same logic.
I will let you know after the 2024 election when the same analysis can be applied.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:02 am to GumboPot
Biden won't be the Dem nominee.
So the polls are meaningless.
So the polls are meaningless.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:03 am to GumboPot
Not good. The last two were complete reverse of what polling predicted. The eternal forces tinkering with our elections are digitally rigging things to make it look one way, and then rig the reverse results in the actual election. All just to create distrust in Democracy and cause civil unrest. They are beating us from the inside out.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:05 am to GumboPot
quote:
GumboPot
You know as well as I, that we have seen this before in 2020. Remember the midnight Biden bump?
What is Trump going to do to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona? That is the race. Popular polls don't matter. We don't elect a POTUS by popular vote.
How does Trump win the states he MUST win in 2024? And rather than devolve into name calling, give me a logical answer. I think he wins Georgia now that they've fixed their election laws, but Michigan is under full Democrat control. That state is lost. Wisconsin and PA have problems with their election system. I haven't heard of Arizona doing anything to prevent the 20 day "election day", so how does Trump win the states he must win to become POTUS?
Again, rather than melt down and lash out, provide a reasonable argument. If there has been some news stories that came out over the last year that point me to where these states have fixed their election laws, i'll be glad to read them. I haven't been as plugged in to politics lately.
Also, you are comparing election day polls with polls 10 months out.
This post was edited on 1/26/24 at 9:07 am
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:08 am to GumboPot
quote:
We like to use polling as a predictive
And it's not all that reliable.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:12 am to GumboPot
I don't want to be cynical, but polls literally mean nothing to the outcome. You have reputable pollsters out there who are actually relaying legit data, but then the election happens and the cheat is in. Investigations conducted by those who cheated, no investigations into cheating, media perpetuating the false narrative that this was the most secure election in history, etc.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:13 am to Tantal
quote:
This is why they have no choice but to replace Biden.
They ARE NOT replacing him
1) Dr. Jill Biden didnt frick him while being the babysitter, just to step away from the First Ladies spot. She has dirt on everyone that matters
2) They would have to elevate Harris or face racism charges. Either way Trump beats Harris worse than he beats Biden, or the 30% of blacks the DIMs depend on, stay home. No matter which white male they recruit
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:18 am to BugAC
quote:
What is Trump going to do to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona?
I honestly don't know expect get more ballots counted in his favor.
But I nor Trump is giving up in these states to Biden. I think he should fight for these state constituents' votes as hard as he can. I think he will.
quote:
How does Trump win the states he MUST win in 2024? And rather than devolve into name calling, give me a logical answer. I think he wins Georgia now that they've fixed their election laws, but Michigan is under full Democrat control. That state is lost. Wisconsin and PA have problems with their election system. I haven't heard of Arizona doing anything to prevent the 20 day "election day", so how does Trump win the states he must win to become POTUS?
Are you suggesting Trump just give up?
If so I don't believe he will. Giving up is not a characteristic in Trump's personality. At least he has never demonstrated that characteristic. So, I have no reason to believe he will give up even if it is like Mitt Romney gave up in 2012 when he basically stopped campaigning in the final days versus Obama.
quote:
Also, you are comparing election day polls with polls 10 months out.
I realize that. I don't have close to election day polls for 2024 because, well, we are 10 months out.
This post was edited on 1/26/24 at 9:20 am
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:19 am to BugAC
quote:
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona?
AZ - Trump, +8, +10, +5 (since Dec 8)
MI - Trump +5, +8, +12, +3 (since Jan 2)
PA - Trump +1, even (since Dec 18)
WI - Trump +4, +6 (since Dec 6)
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:21 am to RobbBobb
quote:
AZ - Trump, +8, +10, +5 (since Dec 8)
MI - Trump +5, +8, +12, +3 (since Jan 2)
PA - Trump +1, even (since Dec 18)
WI - Trump +4, +6 (since Dec 6)
I looked for these and couldn't find them. If you have a link handy that would be great.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:24 am to BugAC
quote:
What is Trump going to do to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona?
This question never gets answered on this board.
Ever.
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:24 am to GumboPot
And yet (so far anyway) Biden and the Dems are full bore fighting to keep the border at a free flow and going about general business like they don’t have a care in the world.
Interesting behavior since traditionally parties always seemed to start moving towards the middle (for Election purposes.)
Interesting behavior since traditionally parties always seemed to start moving towards the middle (for Election purposes.)
Posted on 1/26/24 at 9:25 am to GumboPot
People are fed up again. I think enough white women and minorities flip from 2020 to give Trump the dub.
Dems know this so they are desperate to get a conviction before fall. But even if so, it will not matter.
Dems know this so they are desperate to get a conviction before fall. But even if so, it will not matter.
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