re: Trump: Lake Ontario to be named "Lake America?"

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How long do you think he spent making this comment

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Probably took him a few minutes and Natalie another few minutes to type it up.

But it’s pretty evident he spends way more time than he should thinking of ways to pad his own ego

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Can you please explain this statement in your Op?

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Happy to comply. On the day President Trump took office for the second time, January 20, 2025, Conservatives in Canada enjoyed over a 20% advantage in the polls over the Liberals.

Trump immediately began referring to Canada as the "51st state" and Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "Governor Trudeau." He also imposed stiff tariffs on Canadian goods.

Because of Trump's attacks, Canadians rallied around the flag, and voted in favor of the incumbent Liberals in the April 2025 election. In just three months, the Conservatives lost their 20 plus point lead.

Instead of the brilliant Pierre Poilievre (look up some of his videos abusing the Liberals and Leftist media) and the Conservative Party leading Canada and working with Trump and the US, Trump has to deal with Mark Carney and an adversarial Canadian government.

There are dozens of articles documenting that Trump helped the Liberals snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. I couldn't find a single one that said Trump was NOT the primary cause of the Conservatives' defeat.

The ChatGPT summary below is helpful. At the beginning, I included a cite to the best academic article on the subject if you want more details.

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LINK


1. The polling movement is actually one of the clearest pieces of evidence that Trump's actions mattered. The remarkable thing is that the Conservatives went from what looked like an almost certain majority to losing the election in roughly four months.

The basic trajectory
Canadian Liberal–Conservative polling reversal
Approximate national polling averages/representative polling snapshots during the 2025 Canadian election campaign. The figures illustrate the direction and scale of the reversal rather than a single pollster's series.

Conservative 44%
Liberal 20%

Sources include contemporary Canadian polling analyses and reporting; values are rounded representative snapshots.

The exact numbers vary by pollster, but the shape of the movement is not really in dispute.
1. Before Trump became a major issue: Conservatives were crushing the Liberals
At the beginning of 2025, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives had roughly a 20–25-point advantage over the Liberals in some polling averages.

This was largely a referendum on the deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau government. The Conservatives appeared headed for a very large majority. ABC described the Conservative lead as approximately 25 points.

And here's an important detail: Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, but that alone didn't immediately reverse the Liberal collapse. The Liberals remained badly behind for weeks.

2. Then Trump enters the picture
Trump's rhetoric escalated dramatically after his January 20 inauguration:
25% tariffs on Canadian goods
repeated threats concerning Canadian sovereignty
talk of Canada becoming the "51st state"
calling Trudeau "Governor Trudeau"
portraying Canada as taking advantage of the United States
That produced a very strong Canadian nationalist reaction.
By early March, the Liberal deficit had shrunk dramatically. The Washington Post reported that the Liberals had been 20 points behind before Trump's intervention but were rapidly recovering afterward.

The Guardian described the transformation as extraordinary: polling averages that had the Liberals 23 points behind the Conservatives two months earlier had moved to essentially even or slightly ahead.

3. Trump's tariffs appear to have produced repeated Liberal bumps

This is particularly interesting because we can see movements associated with individual tariff announcements/deadlines.

For example, Innovative Research Group reported in April that a new Trump tariff deadline produced a six-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives. The poll also found that 52% approved of the Canadian government's response to Trump, while only 30% approved of Poilievre's response.

Innovative Research
So it wasn't simply:
Trudeau leaves ? Liberals get a new leader ? polls recover.
It was more like:
Trudeau leaves ? Liberals remain badly behind ? Trump escalates ? Canadian nationalism rises ? Liberals rapidly recover.

4. By election day, the Conservatives' enormous advantage had disappeared

The final result was:
Liberals: 43.7%
Conservatives: 41.3%
The Liberals won 169 seats, just short of the 172 required for a majority.

So you're looking at a swing from something like:

Conservatives +20 to +25 points
to:
Liberals +2.4 points on election day.

That's roughly a 25-point reversal in the relative position of the two parties.

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Hopefully you aren't referring to Hungary or Venezuela.

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I wasn't. That's why I qualified it. President Trump has had more victories than losses.

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Now imagine why. Oh, here.

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I don't think it's in dispute that Trump helped the Liberals win the election. You have any proof of the opposite? No conservative outlet or pundit wrote that.

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You have any proof of the opposite? No conservative outlet or pundit wrote that.

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Of course no conservative outlet would say that.

Do you have any proof that a less bellicose Trump helped the conservatives of Canada prior to 2025?

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If I were Carney I would dare him and say go ahead and add to it Brought to you by Donald J. Trump, now let's talk about those stupid tariffs that are going to hurt American consumers and manufacturers especially in Michigan and upstate New York.

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What Upstate New York consumers and manufacturers are you referring to?

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Do you have any proof that a less bellicose Trump helped the conservatives of Canada prior to 2025?

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I'm not sure what your point is. I suspect most Conservative Canadians WELCOMED Trump’s fact-based attacks on the Liberals in the Truckers Strike (ChatGPT summary below).

He wasn't belittling Canadians. He was specifically pointing out how horrible the Canadian Liberals.


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Yes. Donald Trump very explicitly supported the Canadian “Freedom Convoy” trucker protests in 2022. He was not merely sympathetic to their general cause; he repeatedly praised the protesters and condemned Justin Trudeau's response.

A few examples:
January 29, 2022: At a rally in Conroe, Texas, Trump said the Canadian truckers were “doing more to defend American freedom than our own leaders by far” and told them, “we are with them all the way.”
February 4: Trump described the convoy as peacefully protesting Trudeau's “harsh policies” and “insane COVID mandates.”

February 26: At CPAC, Trump again strongly defended the protesters, saying “we stand with the truckers and we stand with the Canadian people” and attacking Trudeau's treatment of them.

This is significant in the context of your earlier question about Trump's effect on Canadian politics. Trump wasn't just criticizing Trudeau from the sidelines—he was openly taking the side of a movement that was directly challenging Trudeau's government.

So if you're trying to establish a pattern of Trump intervening rhetorically in Canadian politics before his second term, the 2022 Freedom Convoy is a pretty strong example.

Thanks. I hadn't seen the prior post.

Since this thread is anchored, I'm curious your opinion about the truth of the statement "half the people on this Board we be against free beer if Trump was for it"?

How many people on the Board do you think actually have TDS? Do you think it’s fair to characterize you that way?

There's a good bit of trade that moves through the Niagra/ Buffalo area from Canada. Granted not as much as the Detroit area, but it's nothing to dismiss either

Most people here, or at least most active posters here, are certainly pro-Trump.

I'd say the split might be around 80% pro-Trump 20% not pro-Trump.

I consider myself politically homeless. I don't identify with either party. I don't really like associating posters with political parties, tbh. I'd rather just discuss issues without assigning teams. That just muddies the water and doesn't really help explain much.