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Trade wars ARE easy to win; Jobless claims at 50 year low

Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:24 am
Posted by More&Les
Member since Nov 2012
14684 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:24 am
LINK

quote:

Jobless claims are a proxy for layoffs and have been closely watched for signs that trade disputes and escalating tariffs could be costing Americans jobs. Record lows indicate that what many have described as a “trade war” is weighing far less on the U.S. economy than predicted by critics of the Trump administration.


quote:

Weekly jobless claims can be volatile so economists often look to the four-week moving average of initial claims.  This declined by 2,250 to 205,750, the lowest level since December 1969.


Posted by BurningHeart
Member since Jan 2017
9521 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:26 am to
You're gonna trigger IB Biasedman who thinks the country's policies should fit around his business
Posted by More&Les
Member since Nov 2012
14684 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:31 am to
quote:

You're gonna trigger IB Biasedman who thinks the country's policies should fit around his business



my bad
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:35 am to
The S&P 500 index hit a new record high this morning.

That tells me the people who take a stand on the economy with their real money are saying the tariffs will, in one way or another, benefit the U.S. economy.

Sorry, I.B.

I hate tariffs, too, but maybe, just maybe, Trump and his economic advisors know what they are doing and and have more and better information than you and I do to make these tariff decisions.....
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140565 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:38 am to
Where are Eeyore and IB Screamin'?

This post was edited on 9/20/18 at 10:52 am
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
67490 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 10:49 am to
quote:

Trade wars ARE easy to win

Only if you fight them
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
17484 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 11:22 am to
No need to worry about IB anymore...I met him at Sonic last week
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 11:59 am to
quote:

The S&P 500 index hit a new record high this morning.

That tells me the people who take a stand on the economy with their real money are saying the tariffs will, in one way or another, benefit the U.S. economy.



This is flawed reasoning. The economy can perform well in spite of the tariffs and not because of the tariffs. The S&P has been on an upward trajectory for years, including after the passage of Obamacare. That doesn't mean that investors like Obamacare's effect on the economy.
Posted by Muthsera
Member since Jun 2017
7319 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 12:19 pm to
Lost in all the hyperbole on both sides is how small of a percentage of the economy is actually represented by trade with China.
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Jobless claims are a proxy for layoffs and have been closely watched for signs that trade disputes and escalating tariffs could be costing Americans jobs. Record lows indicate that what many have described as a “trade war” is weighing far less on the U.S. economy than predicted by critics of the Trump administration.


Why would tariffs result in overall job loss? Trump is simply choosing which industries suffer and which benefit
Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
24829 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

Jobless claims at 50 year low
That's because so many people are working two and three jobs.

-She Guevara

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

This is flawed reasoning. The economy can perform well in spite of the tariffs
Then why is the Hang Seng stock market down almost 18% and the Shanghai stock market down over 23% since the tariff issue started??

I'm pretty sure your reasoning is flawed.....
Posted by FourThinInches
Dallas
Member since Apr 2012
1303 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:22 pm to
China will bend the knee even with Obama/Kerry undermining attempts
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
40255 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:24 pm to
We have the best trade wars don't we folks?
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11125 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:34 pm to
Considering the tariffs didn’t get implemented until last week....nevermind
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Then why is the Hang Seng stock market down almost 18% and the Shanghai stock market down over 23% since the tariff issue started??

I'm pretty sure your reasoning is flawed.....


Because the US economy is much more robust?

So let's pretend that Trump did not implement any tariffs since taking office. In that scenario, you think the S&P would be lower than it currently is? By how much?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

Because the US economy is much more robust?
So a robust U.S. economy drives down the two major Chinese stock markets??

Seriously, you've got to explain that logic.

quote:

So let's pretend
Nah. I don't play 'let's pretend.' I only play what is.
Posted by RobbBobb
Matt Flynn, BCS MVP
Member since Feb 2007
27935 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

IB Biasedman who thinks the country's policies should fit around his business

That is staggeringly unbelievable. With his mindset we would never have cars, cells phones, the Internet, etc because they have negatively affected someones individual business
Posted by cahoots
Member since Jan 2009
9134 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

So a robust U.S. economy drives down the two major Chinese stock markets??

Seriously, you've got to explain that logic.





That's not what I said bro. Investors don't generally like tariffs because they are a drag on an economy. Hence the Chinese stock market drops. However, the US economy is strong enough to withstand tariffs. Therefore, other factors are outweighing the effects of the tariffs.

quote:

Nah. I don't play 'let's pretend.' I only play what is.



Nice dodge.

Do you think the tariffs put upward, downward, or neutral pressure on the S&P?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 9/20/18 at 1:55 pm to
I believe both our and Chinese stock market investors are telling us that the resolution of the tariffs "war", whatever and whenever that resolution will be, will end up in favor of the U.S.'s economy and not China's.
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