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Message
Top 3 Senate Races you are observing most?
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:56 pm
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:56 pm
Within the last 48hrs there have been incessant threads covering Trump/Russia/Media/Mueller.
If you prefer to take a break from all of that let’s discuss domestic politics occurring here with midterms approaching.
Depending on the response this thread generates I’ll also do something similar for the House and Gubernatorial races.
Top 3 Senate Races I’m looking most at:
Florida
-Rick Scott (GOP)
-Bill Nelson (Dem) Incumbent
Complete toss up. CBS and various Florida polling outlets have Scott up by 4. NBC and Gracie have Nelson up by 4. All polls are within the margin of error.
The race really intrigued me the most. Scott has been a very vocal supporter of Trump for much of his presidency. Florida being a purple state is going to have a lot of eyes come Nov. if Nelson wins obviously the Ds think they can retake Florida in 2020.
Missouri
-Josh Harley (GOP)
-Claire Mckaskill (Dem) incumbent
Most polls have Mckaskill up but only within the margin of error. So far she has raised $12 million cash on hand compared to Hawley having $4million. I think this is the one seat in a red state the GOP really needs a must win. It will also be one of the first races called in the night. So look for it to set the tone for either party.
North Dakota
-Kevin Kramer (GOP)
-Heidi Heitkamp (Dem) incumbent
Hardly any polls out so far. Trump won this state by 33 points. If the GOP can’t secure a victory in this race I think it will be a long night.. likewise with the West Virginia race. Curious to see how the people of ND respond to Heitkamps vote for the Supreme Court. She voted Yes to confirm Gorsich. If she does the same for Kavanaugh will that be enough to win re election?
Disclaimer not many polls out for any Senate races. I think Florida has the most but it’s only 6 polls so far.
What are your top 3 and thoughts?
If you prefer to take a break from all of that let’s discuss domestic politics occurring here with midterms approaching.
Depending on the response this thread generates I’ll also do something similar for the House and Gubernatorial races.
Top 3 Senate Races I’m looking most at:
Florida
-Rick Scott (GOP)
-Bill Nelson (Dem) Incumbent
Complete toss up. CBS and various Florida polling outlets have Scott up by 4. NBC and Gracie have Nelson up by 4. All polls are within the margin of error.
The race really intrigued me the most. Scott has been a very vocal supporter of Trump for much of his presidency. Florida being a purple state is going to have a lot of eyes come Nov. if Nelson wins obviously the Ds think they can retake Florida in 2020.
Missouri
-Josh Harley (GOP)
-Claire Mckaskill (Dem) incumbent
Most polls have Mckaskill up but only within the margin of error. So far she has raised $12 million cash on hand compared to Hawley having $4million. I think this is the one seat in a red state the GOP really needs a must win. It will also be one of the first races called in the night. So look for it to set the tone for either party.
North Dakota
-Kevin Kramer (GOP)
-Heidi Heitkamp (Dem) incumbent
Hardly any polls out so far. Trump won this state by 33 points. If the GOP can’t secure a victory in this race I think it will be a long night.. likewise with the West Virginia race. Curious to see how the people of ND respond to Heitkamps vote for the Supreme Court. She voted Yes to confirm Gorsich. If she does the same for Kavanaugh will that be enough to win re election?
Disclaimer not many polls out for any Senate races. I think Florida has the most but it’s only 6 polls so far.
What are your top 3 and thoughts?
15
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:00 pm to Magician2
Florida...I think Scott wins.
Missouri...McCaskill loses.
Tennessee...Bredesen beats Blackburn.
GOP net gain of 1 from these 3 states.
Missouri...McCaskill loses.
Tennessee...Bredesen beats Blackburn.
GOP net gain of 1 from these 3 states.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:10 pm to Magician2
Florida is the one that I'm really rooting for.
Rick Scott is a great Governor that has gotten good results and Florida should send him to the senate to see if that translates to DC as well.
Nelson has been there since the 70s. Time to retire old man.
Rick Scott is a great Governor that has gotten good results and Florida should send him to the senate to see if that translates to DC as well.
Nelson has been there since the 70s. Time to retire old man.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:19 pm to Magician2
Watch New Jersey. Menendez is extremely corrupt and involved in a federal trial and Hugin the Republican is a former CEO of Celgene and has a big money advantage.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:20 pm to TakingStock
quote:
Watch New Jersey. Menendez is extremely corrupt and involved in a federal trial and Hugin the Republican is a former CEO of Celgene and has a big money advantage.
Might the GOP pick up a seat in NH?
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:20 pm to Magician2
Florida is top one for me. Living in Florida and being a purple state that could turn red it's a big election . Scott made this competitive as soon as he joined the race. This was a seat that democrats and the media thought would be a democrat win till the polls starting coming out . This race makes me feel better about the states Trump won big that the incumbents are democrats. Once the reblican get their name out in the states Trump won big then they showed move up in the polls.
West Virginia and Montana would be the next 2 . Both races show the republics being far behind but it's hard to see all those Trump voters really voting against a guy that he supports.
West Virginia and Montana would be the next 2 . Both races show the republics being far behind but it's hard to see all those Trump voters really voting against a guy that he supports.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:28 pm to Magician2
I think the most interesting are three GOP seats.
Arizona- pure toss up IMO. Hope McSally can hold it
Nevada—-thought this was a goner but think Heller might be able to hold on
Tennessee—-Dems have their best candidate. Hoping Trump can pull Blackburn over the line
I think GOP flips FL, ND and IN. Think Manchin wins WV. Not sure about MO. Sky Queen seems to have 9 lives
Arizona- pure toss up IMO. Hope McSally can hold it
Nevada—-thought this was a goner but think Heller might be able to hold on
Tennessee—-Dems have their best candidate. Hoping Trump can pull Blackburn over the line
I think GOP flips FL, ND and IN. Think Manchin wins WV. Not sure about MO. Sky Queen seems to have 9 lives
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:35 pm to Magician2
According to latest polls...some from RealClearPolitics, unless I could find something more recent.
Likely Dem. retain:
Manchin, WV +9
Tester, MT +3
Menendez NJ +2
Likely Dem pickups:
Rosen, NV +4
Bredesen, TN +6
Sinema, AZ +6
Likely GOP pickups:
Cramer, ND +4
Possible GOP pickups
Braun, IN +1
Hawley, MO +2
Too close:
FL...polls are all over the place the last month...Nelson +4, Scott +5, Nelson +4
I'm more worried than I was. I thought Manchin was in more trouble. It would be big if Menendez goes down. GOP really needs Scott to win. GOP will probably lose NV, AZ, and TN. Yeah, I know, most people will say that in AZ, what's the difference between Flake and a Dem. The difference is that Flake voted to confirm Gorsuch. The problem is that in spite of the fact that Trump won WV and MT big, Manchin and Tester are well liked by their constituents.
Likely Dem. retain:
Manchin, WV +9
Tester, MT +3
Menendez NJ +2
Likely Dem pickups:
Rosen, NV +4
Bredesen, TN +6
Sinema, AZ +6
Likely GOP pickups:
Cramer, ND +4
Possible GOP pickups
Braun, IN +1
Hawley, MO +2
Too close:
FL...polls are all over the place the last month...Nelson +4, Scott +5, Nelson +4
I'm more worried than I was. I thought Manchin was in more trouble. It would be big if Menendez goes down. GOP really needs Scott to win. GOP will probably lose NV, AZ, and TN. Yeah, I know, most people will say that in AZ, what's the difference between Flake and a Dem. The difference is that Flake voted to confirm Gorsuch. The problem is that in spite of the fact that Trump won WV and MT big, Manchin and Tester are well liked by their constituents.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:38 pm to Magician2
Arizona, Missouri, and tennessee
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:40 pm to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Florida...I think Scott wins. Missouri...McCaskill loses. Tennessee...Bredesen beats Blackburn. GOP net gain of 1 from these 3 states
Agree.
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:42 pm to Magician2
Texas - Cruz is a big political asset to the GOP in the Senate, would pretty much kill his political career to lose to Beto
Tennessee - Bredeson needs to win this one and keep that goddamn loon out of the Senate
Minnesota - Dems will win but it should be interesting to see how the votes predict GOP growth heading into 2020
Tennessee - Bredeson needs to win this one and keep that goddamn loon out of the Senate
Minnesota - Dems will win but it should be interesting to see how the votes predict GOP growth heading into 2020
Posted on 7/17/18 at 9:49 pm to Muthsera
Rosen will beat Sen. Heller in Nevada by 5%+
Sinema will beat McSally by 3% in Arizona.
Bredesen will edge Blackburn in TN.
Democrats will flip those three seats.
Control of the Senate will rest on what happens in North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida.
Connelly (IN) and Manchin (WV) will win relection by 6%+.
Sinema will beat McSally by 3% in Arizona.
Bredesen will edge Blackburn in TN.
Democrats will flip those three seats.
Control of the Senate will rest on what happens in North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida.
Connelly (IN) and Manchin (WV) will win relection by 6%+.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 7/17/18 at 10:49 pm to GeorgeWest
Rosen’s lies are catching up with her. Her fake degree, her fake company. She may win but it won’t be by 5+. Heller has already closed the gap considerably.
The last poll in IN showed Connelly favorability in low 40s. High 40% respondents said it was time for a change. Again, he may win but not by 6 PTs.
I agree Manchin wins.
The last poll in IN showed Connelly favorability in low 40s. High 40% respondents said it was time for a change. Again, he may win but not by 6 PTs.
I agree Manchin wins.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:28 am to GeorgeWest
quote:
Rosen will beat Sen. Heller in Nevada by 5%+
Sinema will beat McSally by 3% in Arizona.
Bredesen will edge Blackburn in TN.
Democrats will flip those three seats.
Control of the Senate will rest on what happens in North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida.
Connelly (IN) and Manchin (WV) will win relection by 6%+.
Lol you need help.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:33 am to Magician2
I find it fascinating how much the news believes that Democrats are going to get 26 of 35 seats again and then think the Dems might get 28 or 30 
It's pure delusional
It's pure delusional
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 12:35 am
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:56 am to Magician2
It’s interesting that Beta O’Rourke went full leftist and called for the impeachment of Trump.
This signals to me that he’s given up on winning in Tejas and is more interested in his national profile.
I saw that the stuttering Kenyan met with losing 2016 Senate candidate Jason Kandor in regards to a potential WH run in 2020. That seems to be what Beta is going to try and do - emerge as a far left voice nationally even though it guarantees he’ll lose his 2018 race. Probably a smart strategy honestly bc he wasn’t going to beat Rafael “Theodore” Cruz anyhow.
This signals to me that he’s given up on winning in Tejas and is more interested in his national profile.
I saw that the stuttering Kenyan met with losing 2016 Senate candidate Jason Kandor in regards to a potential WH run in 2020. That seems to be what Beta is going to try and do - emerge as a far left voice nationally even though it guarantees he’ll lose his 2018 race. Probably a smart strategy honestly bc he wasn’t going to beat Rafael “Theodore” Cruz anyhow.
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 1:02 am
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:59 am to SirWinston
Beta, Kamala, and Lieawatha. Only two may advance to the getting trounced round.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:17 am to Magician2
If there's an issue with the election in Florida...who wants to take bets that Broward County will be involved?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 6:22 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Florida...I think Scott wins. Missouri...McCaskill loses.
fingers crossed
Posted on 7/18/18 at 6:28 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Tennessee...Bredesen beats Blackburn.
If so, it won’t be my fault.
Regardless of party, West Tennessee candidates traditionally don’t do very well in Senate races.
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