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Message
Time to end the darn panic - the worst case is way overstated!!
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:16 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:16 pm
The so called SCIENTISTS are more bureaucrat and DEEP STATE than true data driven scientists!! I am a 76 year old MIT educated data scientists who earns a living providing businesses with insights from their numbers.
Let's take a realistic view of the numbers.
1. Infection Incidence rate - TEXAS tests show 3.8 % incidence!
2. Mortality rate among those infected - the US , as more cases are shown by testing, is rapidly approaching an at worst rate of 1 %
Remember these are worse case as those tested are the people with symptoms or exposure to infected people!!
South Korea has been testing the best - they now have a mortality rate of .7% (Germany is at .38%!!)
LINK to South Korea Data and article
Assuming the virus incidence rate for those tested in Texas (3.8%) and S.Korea's .7% mortality rate means that for 1 Million people, 3,800 would be infected and of those 26.6 would die. For a US Population of 330 Million, that would be 8,778. !! A nasty number for sure (we are only at 417 right now) but no where near the 100,000 or even a million that have been hyperbolically thrown around by government officials and the press.
We do need to continue to mitigate the incidence build as we are doing to keep from overwhelming our hospitals and medical system. However,the worst case is no where as near as is being forecast and my estimate might be way too high given the impact of the mitigation efforts and the high likelihood that the two drugs Trump pushed out through the Bureaucracy will actually work (I reviewed data from three studies - not ANECDOTES!!- and anecdotal summaries from other countries. Our SCIENTISTS need to be providing accurate estimates of the true incidence rate and the true mortality rate and give it to the PUBLIC!!
I forecast a great football season starting on time - I just hope we all will be able to afford tickets!!
Let's take a realistic view of the numbers.
1. Infection Incidence rate - TEXAS tests show 3.8 % incidence!
2. Mortality rate among those infected - the US , as more cases are shown by testing, is rapidly approaching an at worst rate of 1 %
Remember these are worse case as those tested are the people with symptoms or exposure to infected people!!
South Korea has been testing the best - they now have a mortality rate of .7% (Germany is at .38%!!)
LINK to South Korea Data and article
Assuming the virus incidence rate for those tested in Texas (3.8%) and S.Korea's .7% mortality rate means that for 1 Million people, 3,800 would be infected and of those 26.6 would die. For a US Population of 330 Million, that would be 8,778. !! A nasty number for sure (we are only at 417 right now) but no where near the 100,000 or even a million that have been hyperbolically thrown around by government officials and the press.
We do need to continue to mitigate the incidence build as we are doing to keep from overwhelming our hospitals and medical system. However,the worst case is no where as near as is being forecast and my estimate might be way too high given the impact of the mitigation efforts and the high likelihood that the two drugs Trump pushed out through the Bureaucracy will actually work (I reviewed data from three studies - not ANECDOTES!!- and anecdotal summaries from other countries. Our SCIENTISTS need to be providing accurate estimates of the true incidence rate and the true mortality rate and give it to the PUBLIC!!
I forecast a great football season starting on time - I just hope we all will be able to afford tickets!!
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 10:26 pm
4
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:16 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
Take it up with POTUS and the Coronavirus task force.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:28 pm to Redleg Guy
Go read Michael Berry's twitter account tonight, he's very pissed.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:29 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
thanks for this encouragement
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:44 pm to Junky
I just read that. Pitchforks.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:53 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
I have been screaming this for days...Trump is listening to a bunch of deep state, Clinton loving, bad actors who want to ruin the economy in a last ditch effort to hurt Trumps reelection chances. Anybody with a brain knows you can extrapolate nothing from the current "rising" numbers unless all are a tested daily...we could very well be on the back side of the curve as this shite was here for months...but they keep pointing to the numbers rising and scream see its spreading. bullshite...its just testing!
This is a desperate try by the deep state and China to unseat Trump and let the globalists try to take their power back. This virus has infected a fraction of the folks WORLDWIDE thst H1N1 did in just the US. This is a set up and overkill x1000.
This is a desperate try by the deep state and China to unseat Trump and let the globalists try to take their power back. This virus has infected a fraction of the folks WORLDWIDE thst H1N1 did in just the US. This is a set up and overkill x1000.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 10:55 pm to Redleg Guy
quote:
Take it up with POTUS and the Coronavirus task force.
States are shutting down, not Trump...he said it best, some places are handling it very well
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:02 pm to IceTiger
quote:
States are shutting down, not Trump...he said it best, some places are handling it very well
Really? I can't get to Iraq for work because of states' decisions? Don't think so. I can't get to Iraq precisely because of his decisions.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:14 pm to Threelot
quote:
Really? I can't get to Iraq for work because of states' decisions? Don't think so. I can't get to Iraq precisely because of his decisions
Well yeah, he is purveyor of foreign travel...so yeah, he's the one that makes the call for Americans/travelling foreign workers
The other 99.9% aren't his call
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:19 pm to TigerMuskyFanMinneso
3.8% of 1,000,000 = 38,000; therefore, 266 will die if rate is 0.7% or 0.007
This would mean 87,780 people would die, if US population is 330,000,000.
Add to the population illegal immigrants and that would be another 10-20 million.
Death total would be another 2660 to 5320. Although their immune system may be stronger, they also have more people living in the same home. Their death rate could be higher.
All of this assumes 0.7% of the infected will die. We have the best healthcare system in the world, are the richest country in the world, have a large portion of the population with the worst diets in the world, and the most out of shape population on the planet. Being out of shape affects one's breathing. This means more Americans are susceptible to having "pre-existing" conditions. People with hyper-tension have difficulty with COVID. Many overweight people have hypertension, thus are out of shape.
If the death rate/infected drops, then we should see less than the 87k die.
The real question is: How many deaths have to occur before one can say it is worth creating a global depression?
The actions are not taken with the flu when 80,000 Americans died from the flu in 2018, and people did not shut themselves inside and cancel all activities because flu season was bad.
This would mean 87,780 people would die, if US population is 330,000,000.
Add to the population illegal immigrants and that would be another 10-20 million.
Death total would be another 2660 to 5320. Although their immune system may be stronger, they also have more people living in the same home. Their death rate could be higher.
All of this assumes 0.7% of the infected will die. We have the best healthcare system in the world, are the richest country in the world, have a large portion of the population with the worst diets in the world, and the most out of shape population on the planet. Being out of shape affects one's breathing. This means more Americans are susceptible to having "pre-existing" conditions. People with hyper-tension have difficulty with COVID. Many overweight people have hypertension, thus are out of shape.
If the death rate/infected drops, then we should see less than the 87k die.
The real question is: How many deaths have to occur before one can say it is worth creating a global depression?
The actions are not taken with the flu when 80,000 Americans died from the flu in 2018, and people did not shut themselves inside and cancel all activities because flu season was bad.
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