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re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:35 am to iwasnevergivenaname
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:35 am to iwasnevergivenaname
Appreciate your edit. That's epistemic virtue.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:39 am to TigerDoc
quote:
In medicine, we have a saying that if you hear the sound of hoofbeats outside, expect to see a horse, not a zebra. Common things are common and rare things are rare,
In a war with Russia, your enemy striking your infrastructure and killing your civilians is the horse (Russian false flag narratives are too). Actual false flags are the zebra.
Look up how common false flags are during war.
It's pretty common. In fact US Department of Defense has been screaming false flag over anything Russia does.
They said Russia will attack Russia to invade. Yeah, I don't think this medical analogy is really useful here.
This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 10:40 am
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:42 am to dr90210
Your post earlier about the fog of war is apt - you seem to imply a sort of nihilism about coming by truth under our current circumstances. Do you see posting Russian propaganda as a way to keep all the dupes from buying into Western propaganda?
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:48 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Your post earlier about the fog of war is apt - you seem to imply a sort of nihilism about coming by truth under our current circumstances. Do you see posting Russian propaganda as a way to keep all the dupes from buying into Western propaganda?
Obviously you should see all sources of information available. Then people can debate, analyze, debunk and draw their own conclusions. YouTube, Facebook and big media censorship of information coming from Russia doesn't do anyone any favors.
Being spoonfed one side of the conflict will not paint a full picture of the situation. We have a media crisis in US at this moment, where it is clear the media is no longer an impartial reporter of information, so you need as much information as you can get. This is why I support independent reporters like Lancaster etc...There have been few honest French reports who have been outstanding in covering both sides of the story in East Ukraine.
This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 10:54 am
Posted on 4/8/22 at 10:53 am to dr90210
You and I probably do have different priors for the baseline rate of false flags and given that conspiracies are conducted in secret and covered up, it's hard to rule them out.
There's a popular theory that Putin came to power on the back of false-flag attacks in Russia that were pinned on Chechens. Do you believe that false flag or are you mostly a Western-false-flag sort of a false-flag theorist?
There's a popular theory that Putin came to power on the back of false-flag attacks in Russia that were pinned on Chechens. Do you believe that false flag or are you mostly a Western-false-flag sort of a false-flag theorist?
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:02 am to TigerDoc
quote:
There's a popular theory that Putin came to power on the back of false-flag attacks in Russia that were pinned on Chechens. Do you believe that false flag or are you mostly a Western-false-flag sort of a false-flag theorist?
If you are referring to apartment bombings in Russia in 1999, it is completely plausible KGB, hence Vladdy, was behind that attack. This was Russia's pretext for war with Chechnya and Putin wasn't the established figure he has become. I give it 80/20 likelyhood those bombings were done by KGB agents.
Governments throughout history were willing to sacrifice their own citizen to stay in power and push agenda or do so "for the greater good". This is why I don't rule out Ukraine staging Bucha killings(which isn't very hard to do given the amount of dead civilians) and I wouldn't put it past them to shoot a missile at railway station full of people, which would have a good propaganda effect AND force more people to stay in the city making it harder for Russians to conduct invasion.
From Business Insider:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVumec3ZQ9A
This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 11:07 am
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:03 am to dr90210
quote:
We can speculate if Russia has the supply of any Tochka-U and if they are using it, but it would be speculation.
It was reported the Russians were using the Tochka-U missiles.
Here is what my google search found:
quote:
Ukrainian soldiers shot down a "Tochka U" missile from a Stinger SATURDAY, 19 MARCH 2022, 16:03
LINK
quote:
0 0 26 MARCH 2022, SATURDAY, 19:35 321 Russia Fires Tochka-U Missile At Lysychansk Of Luhansk Region - Luhansk Governor Haidai
LINK
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:06 am to dr90210
quote:
US government just yesterday admitted to putting out false info to "prevent" Russia from doing things.
I don't buy this... I think this is in fact misinformation...
I think we have broken Russian encryption and new what was going to happen in advance.. but we don't want them to know we know..
So it was really just a lucky guess...
wink wink..
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:09 am to dr90210
quote:We don't need to speculate. We know they have them, unless they decided to sink them at the bottom of the ocean for some stupid reason (they didn't)
We can speculate if Russia has the supply of any Tochka-U
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:11 am to dr90210
quote:Have there been any Russian false flags or is it just the other side that does them?
Look up how common false flags are during war.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:17 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:
We don't need to speculate. We know they have them, unless they decided to sink them at the bottom of the ocean for some stupid reason (they didn't)
We know they have them, we know they use old equipment, and reports prior to today say they used them.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:18 am to dr90210
quote:
This is why I don't rule out Ukraine staging Bucha killings(which isn't very hard to do given the amount of dead civilians)
Hold on, though. You said you were "90% confident". That's awfually high.
Wartime atrocities with the Russian army are very well historically attested.
Ultimately, this will be left to historians, but note this - Russia has purged historians from their country and suppress information like the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. They perpetrate false flags and see them where they're not.
If you consume too much Russian propagada, it's apt to rot your brain.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:19 am to Hog on the Hill
Issue with false flag attacks in a war zone is how hard it is to accurately verify. The IA's and governments on both sides will point fingers at one another, and no independent investigators will be able to access the site.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:24 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Hold on, though. You said you were "90% confident". That's awfually high.
Wartime atrocities with the Russian army are very well historically attested.
This is not a gotcha moment. Bucha killings were so easy to stage by Ukrainian military, that they would be stupid not to have done it.
The way the bodies were spread out all along the street, and guy having his hands tied just doesn't make any combat sense. It looked like a planted scene. And yes, the name "Bucha" so the sheep can remember it better seems to have been critical, but that's not the essential part here. Optics are more crucial than phonetics in propaganda warfare.
It was done to kick Russia out of UN.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:27 am to dr90210
Russia wasn't kicked out of the UN, it's not even possible
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:31 am to dr90210
quote:There's satellite imagery and drone video of the bodies being present in the street in the same position they were found after Bucha was liberated. It wasn't faked
Bucha killings were so easy to stage by Ukrainian military, that they would be stupid not to have done it.
The way the bodies were spread out all along the street
The most you could argue is that all the civilians who were killed in Bucha were collateral damage and not directly targeted by Russia.
This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 11:32 am
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:31 am to Hog on the Hill
quote:
We don't need to speculate. We know they have them, unless they decided to sink them at the bottom of the ocean for some stupid reason (they didn't)
No we don't. Russia has been involved in bombing ISIS along with US which depleted a lot of ammunition supplies of both countries. Along with Chechnya war where they leveled cities, Georgia conflict, the 2014 Ukraine-escalation. US even stated that our depots were running low from all the bombing raids. Needless to say Russia couldn't have been in any better position.
Ukraine is openly using Tochka-U's, it's their main mid/long range missile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtoIJhR76gw
This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 11:33 am
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:33 am to dr90210
This isn't even the first time that Russia has used Tochka-Us in Ukraine
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:42 am to dr90210
quote:
Ukraine is openly using Tochka-U's,
And so has Russia. Let the chips fall where they may.
It may never be proven that Russia fired that missile or if Ukraine fired that mussel, but it’s just another red herring.
The most important thing is we know Russia invaded a sovereign country again, they have bombed civilians again and they really don’t care who are what they destroy to gain power.
.
Posted on 4/8/22 at 11:45 am to Hog on the Hill
This is what I didn't have time to do, but some Russian YTer already made an analysis based on rocket booster location and impact. It came from the direction where Ukrainian forces are stationed. I put some subtitle based on context.
So it's a Ukrainian rocket that came from a Ukraian frontline. Case closed.
Video(no-English subs, but images are self-explanatory). You can use the image to find exact Google maps location of the attack and confirm the trajectory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzWQm5zcZEs

So it's a Ukrainian rocket that came from a Ukraian frontline. Case closed.
Video(no-English subs, but images are self-explanatory). You can use the image to find exact Google maps location of the attack and confirm the trajectory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzWQm5zcZEs

This post was edited on 4/8/22 at 12:08 pm
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