The Hill Piece: Ranking the Republican 2028 contenders

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1. Vice President Vance
Vice President Vance is the obvious heir apparent — as any vice president so much younger than the commander in chief would be.

Vance, 42, has always had a lot of backing within Trump’s inner circle, which helped him to be chosen as the president’s 2024 running mate in the first place.

Vance is also seen by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) grassroots as one of their own.

This, admittedly, rather whitewashes Vance’s history, which includes once wondering to a friend if Trump could be “America’s Hitler.”

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2. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vance are, by almost universal agreement, the two front-runners for the 2028 nomination.

In an Emerson College poll for The Hill last month, the secretary of State ran mostly better than Vance in hypothetical match-ups against several potential Democratic nominees.

Rubio has been in the national spotlight since 2010 when he won a U.S. Senate seat representing Florida.

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3. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is one of the few figures outside Trump’s inner circle who could pose a real threat to Vance and Rubio. He is making little secret of the fact that he will probably try.

In a recent interview with MS NOW, Cruz pushed back against the idea that the GOP was beginning to coalesce around Vance as its likely nominee.

When it came to the question of where the Republican Party was going and what its identity should be, Cruz stated that he would be “part of the discussion.”

Cruz, 55, is vigorously conservative, and his base in Texas gives him strong relationships with many big GOP donors.

Like Rubio, Cruz ran against Trump in 2016 before going on to make his peace with the president.

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4. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
Among serious contenders, few divide opinion as much as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

His advocates point to his electoral successes in Florida, his embrace of the president’s agenda especially in terms of immigration and opposition to supposed “wokeness,” and the clout that comes from being governor of a large, increasingly Republican state.

But DeSantis’s downsides are equally obvious. His 2024 campaign against Trump never fired on all cylinders. It did, however, mark the Florida governor as a figure of suspicion in the minds of many Trump supporters.

While Vance, Rubio and Cruz are all assumed to be likely to run in 2028, that is less true of DeSantis, for whom the 2024 campaign was a bruising experience.

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5. Donald Trump Jr.
Could the ardor that the GOP base feels for the current president be transferred to his eldest son?

It’s possible, but far from guaranteed.

The younger Trump has never run for office. Then again, neither had his father prior to 2016.

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6. Tucker Carlson
One of the most intriguing — and controversial — prospects within the GOP is the idea of a presidential run by the conservative commentator.

Tucker Carlson, who was once a staunch backer of Trump, has turned against him, primarily over the war in Iran. The former Fox News host has also become a fervent critic of Israel and its influence on American foreign policy.

To his fans, Carlson has remained true to the populist, “America First” ideology that they believe Trump was supposed to represent. To his detractors, he is stoking his own notoriety by attacking the president and giving a platform to fringe extremists.

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7. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth
Late last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphatically denied an NBC News report that he had “told close friends and associates that he is considering a run for president in 2028.”

The secretary of Defense wrote on social media that the story was “100% false.”

Beyond the specifics of that story, a 2028 run doesn’t seem beyond the bounds of possibility for the ambitious former TV host.

But his tenure at the Pentagon has been deeply controversial, even among some Republicans.

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8. Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.)
Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) appeal is somewhat similar to that of Cruz, except the Arkansas senator is a few years younger and unencumbered by the baggage of a previous run for the presidency.

Cotton, 49, is just as firmly conservative and a good communicator who keeps his profile high with regular appearances in friendly media.

Cotton faces the perennial problem for candidates who are seen as outside the top tier, however.

It’s hard to see him outflanking everyone to actually become the nominee, though it’s quite easy to see him as a possible vice presidential pick.

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9. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders still has a reservoir of support among Trump fans because of her stint as White House press secretary during his first term.

She won election as governor of her native Arkansas in 2022 and is up for reelection this year. One recent poll had her leading only by a surprisingly narrow 5-point margin, but it would be a huge shock if she were to lose.

Sanders hasn’t said much about a possible 2028 bid, though she does have a book coming out this fall, which will see her step more firmly into the national spotlight.

Right now, she appears to be the only viable female candidate for the GOP nomination in 2028.

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10. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp
As a two-term governor of a large Southern state, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp looks good on paper. He will soon have time on his hands to focus on a presidential bid as well: Term limits prevent him from seeking reelection this year.

The big problem for Kemp is his complicated and sometimes rancorous relationship with Trump.

For Kemp to become the nominee, the GOP would have to be ready to rebuke Trump and Trumpism. There is vanishingly little evidence that it is.

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