- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
The doomsday model all of this was based on....was wrong (UPDATED)
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:07 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:07 am
Dr. Neil Ferguson was the imperial college scientist whose report the media and politicians took as gospel and the reason why we are shut down. His model predicted 2 million American dead and 500,000 dead in the UK. Turns out...the models were completely inaccurate. Ferguson is now saying the virus is much more transmissible than previously thought, which means there are likely millions of people out there who have already been infected with the virus without ever knowing they had it. Which ultimately means it is nowhere near as deadly as originally believed. Here’s a link to the article:
LINK
Daily Wire
LINK
quote:
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself from from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning
“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.
“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.
Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”
“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.
“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”
Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.
Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.
If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.
In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.
Daily Wire
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 10:58 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:09 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Which ultimately means it is nowhere near as deadly as originally believed.
Well, at least he is trying to come up with excuses...
Weren't people that suggested this shouted down very early on...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:09 am to RollTide1987
What more can you expect from a leader than making a decision based on available information when faced with the prospect of huge number of dead?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:10 am to RollTide1987
Bet he’s a global warming, beaches will be in Chicago by 2012 guy also.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:10 am to Damone
quote:
What more can you expect from a leader than making a decision based on available information when faced with the prospect of huge number of dead?
You do not rely on one model or one set of information, especially coming from a think tank that is known for pushing bullshite numbers...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:10 am to RollTide1987
I said in another thread that unlike every other academic research paper ever written, this one was universally accepted as accurate and public policies based on its conclusions were made immediately.
It is the most fascinating aspect of this entire goat roping.
It is the most fascinating aspect of this entire goat roping.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:10 am to The Maj
That was pretty clear to any that wasn't masterbating to the numbers. Its cool though he still has a job while others don't.
Its pretty clear the virus isn't that big of deal if the media is having to bury information about each death deep in the paragraphs of an article. Also when you are only stacking like 2 or 3 bodies per day in a state its just not moving the needle considering other causes of death.
Its pretty clear the virus isn't that big of deal if the media is having to bury information about each death deep in the paragraphs of an article. Also when you are only stacking like 2 or 3 bodies per day in a state its just not moving the needle considering other causes of death.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:11 am to reverendotis
quote:
It is the most fascinating aspect of this entire goat roping.
Almost like the powers that be got together and decided which study was right without question...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:12 am to RollTide1987
Did you even bother reading the article you posted? He clearly states that he believes the extreme Lockdown measures they put in place and the Influx in medical care has made his initial projections incorrect.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:15 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:14 am to The_Duke
quote:
He clearly states that he believes the measures taking and the Influx in medical care has made his initial projections incorrect.
Well, since the UK started these measures what two or three days ago, how can he say they are the cause of his model being incorrect...
This frick is trying to save face just like the fricks that have skewed the global warming hoax for years...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:16 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
Its pretty clear the virus isn't that big of deal if the media is having to bury information about each death deep in the paragraphs of an article. Also when you are only stacking like 2 or 3 bodies per day in a state its just not moving the needle considering other causes of death
It’s strange to be posting this on a Louisiana centric message board.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 9:17 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:16 am to RollTide1987
You’re not accurately summarizing that article,
and I suspect you know it. Read the thing again carefully without a preconceived notion
ofwhat it says or what you want it to say.
and I suspect you know it. Read the thing again carefully without a preconceived notion
ofwhat it says or what you want it to say.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:16 am to The Maj
Again, you prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. Hindsight is 20/20 but taking the measures that have been taken was 100% the right call, even in hindsight.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:17 am to The Maj
Notice this came out, right after that huge stimulus/pork bill was passed.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:18 am to The Maj
quote:
This frick is trying to save face just like the fricks that have skewed the global warming hoax for years...
This. A lot CYA going on in the article. I bet we are about to see a lot more.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:19 am to Damone
quote:
Again, you prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for the best.
quote:
that have been taken was 100% the right call, even in hindsight.
No, you do not prepare for the worst or we would shut this shite down every single flu season... You have to measure and weigh your response against second and third order affects and determine acceptable loss, whether it be in lives or in money or other measurable...
This was not the 100% right call and it was made on bad information from the start. The numbers have NEVER added up through this entire process...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:21 am to The Maj
This is what using science for everything gets you
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:22 am to Adam Banks
Well im not currently in LA. I think GA has 40 something deaths since this started say 3 weeks ago.
so we are at 13 per week or 2 per day. Once you remove the nursing home people each state drops considerably. Which I have been consistent on that nursing home stats should be thrown out as they are outliers.
so we are at 13 per week or 2 per day. Once you remove the nursing home people each state drops considerably. Which I have been consistent on that nursing home stats should be thrown out as they are outliers.
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News