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The Des Moines Register: Here's why, despite what polls say, Trump is winning.

Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:31 am
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
44328 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:31 am
Despite nearly every poll showing Joe Biden all but certain to oust President Donald Trump, some little-noticed factors indicate the opposite.


quote:

Trump also benefits from a weak Democratic candidate who, among other problems, can't decide whether he is moderate or progressive.



quote:

In August, the respected CATO Institute reported that 62% of Americans acknowledge holding views that many people consider offensive. Among conservatives, that number skyrockets to 77%. With potentially tens of millions of closeted fans, Trump is a pollster’s nightmare. The wife of a pro-Trump buddy of mine detests the 45th president. Yet, when she slams Trump — which is very often — my friend smiles, nods approvingly, and replies, “I hear ya, sweetie,” or, “you sure got that right, honey.” Another guy who does the same thing says, “Happy wife; happy life.” These pro-union Democrats, incidentally, own vehicles affixed with Biden-Harris bumper stickers. But most Democrats summarily reject the notion that scores of millions of likely voters adore Trump’s views, statements and actions


Opinion piece is pretty spot on. Have to say, there are not a lot of stickers or yard signs like in the past like there was for Obama and Hillary. I live in a very liberal neighborhood, and there are only 4 houses with yard signs. In fact, Lexington as a whole was littered with Obama yard signs all over the city when he ran...there is hardly and Biden signs this election.

quote:

The Trafalgar Group’s Rob Cahaly — who predicted Trump’s 2016 victory — claims most Americans dislike responding to polls consisting of 25 or more questions. Accordingly, Trafalgar’s polls feature under 10 questions. Having worked on two U.S. Senate campaigns, four U.S. House races and three presidential campaigns, my experience tells me that Cahaly is spot-on. He posits that Americans whose views are unpopular “don’t want to be judged by somebody on the phone that they don’t know. They’ve seen this stuff with people being judged for their opinion, losing their jobs.”


THIS

This is what happens with certain groups want to DOX anyone.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 7:35 am
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
47573 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:33 am to
The pollsters are going to try and blame this debacle on “lying” Trump supporters.

Posted by Lawyered
The Sip
Member since Oct 2016
38348 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:35 am to
People don’t want their homes and vehicles vandalized by putting trump signs or flags in their yard

I don’t blame them.

So they sit quietly until Tuesday hopefully
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
44328 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:36 am to
quote:

Then there’s Biden, himself — who, while claiming to be a moderate, says he plans to be “one of the most progressive presidents in American history.” He lied in the Oct. 22 debate by denying he’d flip-flopped on fracking and had labeled Black men as “super predators.”


Could be the reason he is not getting a segment of voters...that is a major blunder on his part like his killing the oil industry statement.
Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12700 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:37 am to
“We weren’t wrong, we were lied to!”
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
44328 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:39 am to
Interesting about the author of the article.

quote:

Todd Blodgett of Clear Lake served on Ronald Reagan’s White House staff and as an adviser to the 1988 presidential campaign committee of George H.W. Bush. He also worked for the Republican National Committee and the FBI.


It is obvious Mr Blodgett has some inside knowledge of what maybe happening in this election.
Posted by Bottom9
Arsenal Til I Die
Member since Jul 2010
25205 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:39 am to
quote:

“We weren’t wrong, we were lied to!”


The man who loves getting pegged Nate Bronze definitely gonna be saying this.
Posted by JJJimmyJimJames
Southern States
Member since May 2020
18496 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:40 am to
interesting read about polling and some fairly recent trends - like doxxing and losing jobs due to marxist thugs, that are not simply distant operatives but neighbors
Posted by lepdagod
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
6077 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 7:44 am to
Trump has lost this election... not because Biden better... but just like 08 everyone I know is voting ...
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138884 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:09 am to
quote:

... but just like 08 everyone I know is voting ...
So your extrapolation is that "everyone" will vote the same way as they did in 2008?

McCain was milquetoast. His campaign events looked like Biden's do now. Palin drew crowds. McCain didn't.
Trump is no McCain.

Obama packed arenas. He excited Dems. Enthusiasm for Obama was similar to current enthusiasm for Trump.
Biden is no Obama.

Maybe you're right though that somehow turnout favors Biden
Posted by Burreaux09
Member since Jan 2020
770 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:14 am to
quote:

Trump has lost this election... not because Biden better... but just like 08 everyone I know is voting




Yeah ok
Posted by Bayoubred
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2011
4151 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:43 am to
Correct analysis but I will add that TRUMP enthusiasm FAR surpasses the Obama enthusiasm, and that was alot.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 11/1/20 at 8:54 am to
quote:

The pollsters are going to try and blame this debacle on “lying” Trump supporters.


And whose fault is that? How about you stop enabling a bunch of violent communists and maybe people won’t lie.
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