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Somebody give an update on redistricting -- GOP gaining/losing seats in the midterms.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:16 pm
I saw Missouri's new map was upheld, but Alabama and South Carolina hit a snag. Anybody got an updated tally showing the +/- of seats?
6
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:21 pm to Slippy
I’m sure republicants will screw this up as usual.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:25 pm to Slippy
quote:
I saw Missouri's new map was upheld, but Alabama and South Carolina hit a snag. Anybody got an updated tally showing the +/- of seats?
Here's some Saint Louis NPR whining after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of governor Kehoe.
quote:
The Missouri Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a governor’s power to call lawmakers into a special session at any time, ending the last lawsuit intended to overturn the state’s newly gerrymandered congressional map without a statewide vote.
In an unanimous decision issued just a few hours after oral arguments, the court held that the Missouri Constitution’s section granting the governor authority to convene the General Assembly on “extraordinary occasions” means it can be done any time the Legislature is not already meeting.
The section, Judge Mary Russell wrote, “does not include language suggesting the governor’s discretion to call an extraordinary session is limited in any way.”
The NAACP of Missouri filed a lawsuit challenging Kehoe’s authority to call a special session on the day lawmakers began meeting in September to consider revising congressional districts and a ballot measure to make it harder to pass constitutional amendments proposed by initiative.
Kehoe called the special session at the urging of President Donald Trump, who wanted to flip a Democratic-held district in the state.
Neither the circumstances nor the legislation was so urgent that a special session was justified, the lawsuit argued
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:49 pm to Bass Tiger
The Republican's hopes should not pend on on seat each from Alabama and South Carolina.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:51 pm to Slippy
Bama's is moving forward, but South Carolina seems to be pu$sy-ing out.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 5:58 pm to Slippy
Chatgpt:
As of today, the rough “net seat change” scoreboard from the mid-decade redistricting fights looks something like this:
State Status Estimated Seat Impact
Missouri New GOP map upheld by Missouri Supreme Court GOP +1
Florida New map signed and mostly surviving so far GOP +3 to +4
Texas SCOTUS allowed new map to stand for 2026 GOP +5
North Carolina Earlier redraw remains in effect GOP +1
Ohio GOP-friendlier redraw implemented GOP +1
Utah Court-imposed map creates safer Dem seat DEM +1
California Anti-Texas response redraw approved DEM +1
Alabama GOP redraw blocked by federal court GOP expected gain erased (roughly -1 from prior GOP hopes)
South Carolina Senate balked at redraw targeting Clyburn seat GOP expected gain erased (roughly -1 from prior GOP hopes)
So the updated practical running tally is approximately:
Republicans: about +9 to +10
Democrats: about +2
Net overall: roughly GOP +7 to +8 seats
But if you compare it to where Republicans thought they might get after Alabama + South Carolina, the recent setbacks trimmed the ceiling by about 2 seats.
The biggest drivers are still:
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Missouri
while the Alabama ruling was a pretty significant brake on the broader Southern strategy.
As of today, the rough “net seat change” scoreboard from the mid-decade redistricting fights looks something like this:
State Status Estimated Seat Impact
Missouri New GOP map upheld by Missouri Supreme Court GOP +1
Florida New map signed and mostly surviving so far GOP +3 to +4
Texas SCOTUS allowed new map to stand for 2026 GOP +5
North Carolina Earlier redraw remains in effect GOP +1
Ohio GOP-friendlier redraw implemented GOP +1
Utah Court-imposed map creates safer Dem seat DEM +1
California Anti-Texas response redraw approved DEM +1
Alabama GOP redraw blocked by federal court GOP expected gain erased (roughly -1 from prior GOP hopes)
South Carolina Senate balked at redraw targeting Clyburn seat GOP expected gain erased (roughly -1 from prior GOP hopes)
So the updated practical running tally is approximately:
Republicans: about +9 to +10
Democrats: about +2
Net overall: roughly GOP +7 to +8 seats
But if you compare it to where Republicans thought they might get after Alabama + South Carolina, the recent setbacks trimmed the ceiling by about 2 seats.
The biggest drivers are still:
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Missouri
while the Alabama ruling was a pretty significant brake on the broader Southern strategy.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:03 pm to tketaco
Why didn’t ChatGPT list the state that lit the fuse?
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:25 pm to Slippy
Alabama will gain at least 1 seat hopefully 2.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:33 pm to Slippy
It’s less than ten seats total and won’t be determinative.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:34 pm to dkreller
quote:
Why didn’t ChatGPT list the state that lit the fuse?
Because even ChatGPT knows that neither Illinois or California started gerrymandering, and that the practice predates both states and has never not been practiced in the US.
Texas did choose to start this race for nothing mid-cycle.
This post was edited on 5/27/26 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:40 pm to Indefatigable
I was talking about Louisiana
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:41 pm to wareagle7298
quote:
The Republican's hopes should not pend on on seat each from Alabama and South Carolina.
If the folks in Missouri are not overrun with East and West coast leftists we could be an 8-0 map
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:46 pm to dkreller
quote:
I was talking about Louisiana
Louisiana didn’t start this either.
This post was edited on 5/27/26 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:54 pm to Indefatigable
Ok bro. Clearly I’m talking about the Callais ruling which lit all the pink hair on fire and triggered a chain reaction of states.
This post was edited on 5/27/26 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:55 pm to tketaco
Also Tater tot in MS pussed out and kicked the can down the road where we will eventually redraw but not in time for these midterms
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:39 pm to tketaco
They left out TN's GOP +1.
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:43 pm to hogcard1964
quote:
Bama's is moving forward, but South Carolina seems to be pu$sy-ing out.
Lindsay Graham must be in charge of it
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