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Message
Sanctions turning off the spigot for Iranian crude
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:12 am
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:12 am
LINK
Some forecasts have their production dropping by two-thirds, possibly to as low as 700,000 bpd.
India (privately) and Japan (publicly) will seek out alternatives if we don't grant them a waiver - the two combine for nearly 800k bpd in imports. South Korean imports are already down 40% year over year. Greece and Spain have already begun to cut imports as well. Swiss bank BCP has announced they won't fund cargo shipments out of Iran.
Even if China decides to play hardball and ignore the sanctions (not confirmed), Iran is going to take a fricking beating on this. I think we're looking at 9 months or less before the SHTF. Maybe < 6.
Some forecasts have their production dropping by two-thirds, possibly to as low as 700,000 bpd.
India (privately) and Japan (publicly) will seek out alternatives if we don't grant them a waiver - the two combine for nearly 800k bpd in imports. South Korean imports are already down 40% year over year. Greece and Spain have already begun to cut imports as well. Swiss bank BCP has announced they won't fund cargo shipments out of Iran.
Even if China decides to play hardball and ignore the sanctions (not confirmed), Iran is going to take a fricking beating on this. I think we're looking at 9 months or less before the SHTF. Maybe < 6.
6
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:16 am to Muthsera
Hope it gets bad enough a much needed and long overdue social revolution occurs.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:19 am to Muthsera
quote:yippee! We gonna ride in Louisiana - $4.00 a gallon gas by Labor day.
Some forecasts have their production dropping by two-thirds, possibly to as low as 700,000 bpd.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:32 am to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
Hope it gets bad enough a much needed and long overdue social revolution occurs.
Right. Because Iranian social revolutions usually go in favor of western powers.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 3:34 am to skinny domino
idiot
The prices I have been paying have not moved outside of a narrow band for at least 2 months.
The prices I have been paying have not moved outside of a narrow band for at least 2 months.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:29 am to MrCarton
quote:
Iranian social revolutions usually go in favor of western powers.
We'll see what happens when we aren't arming the Quran-thumpers.
Persians are not Arabs; they have a long history of wealth and social achievement. Plus, the EU has already been establishing trade ties the last few years, so there's already a guidewire to Western culture for them.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:40 am to skinny domino
quote:
yippee! We gonna ride in Louisiana - $4.00 a gallon gas by Labor day.
In the overall picture 700K bps isn’t going to have a large affect on spot oil prices. The BR Exxon refinery goes through 500K BPD as a reference.
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 4:41 am
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:45 am to skinny domino
quote:Good.
We gonna ride in Louisiana - $4.00 a gallon gas by Labor day.
So given a choice between an Islamic Extremist enemy of the West arming itself with Nukes, and $4 gas, we now know where your support lies.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 5:14 am to Muthsera
quote:
I think we're looking at 9 months or less before the SHTF. Maybe < 6.
And what is the result? What will this accomplish?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 6:02 am to skinny domino
quote:
yippee! We gonna ride in Louisiana - $4.00 a gallon gas by Labor day.
You probably said the same thing about the July 4th holiday too. Prices actually were lower in some states from what I read. But keep projecting - history is on your side, eventually huh?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 6:04 am to Muthsera
Trumps still pissed about Iran taking hostages in the 70's.I don't think he'd mind if the Mulahs and Ayatolla's were ousted in Iran.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 6:24 am to MrCarton
quote:
Right. Because Iranian social revolutions usually go in favor of western powers.
Even when they do, they don't in the long run.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 7:02 am to lsufan1971
quote:
In the overall picture 700K bps isn’t going to have a large affect on spot oil prices. The BR Exxon refinery goes through 500K BPD as a reference.
Meh who knows, the crude market can we wildly elastic
Posted on 7/18/18 at 7:05 am to Wtodd
quote:
Even when they do, they don't in the long run.
They don't, so this isn't really a tested theory.
The notion that one could sanction Iran into line with a US policy that is to essentially completely eradicate broader Iranian influence in their own back yard is ridiculous.
The notion that there have been any social revolutions in the region that have led to compatibility with western objectives is also ridiculous.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 7:13 am to Muthsera
quote:
guidewire to Western culture for them
Inside every asian there’s an American waiting to get out?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 7:14 am to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
social revolution
They don't need a social revolution. They need a kill all the mullahs revolution.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 7:27 am to Muthsera
Looks like it's time for the US and Saudi productions to ramp up to meet demand.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 8:19 am to skinny domino
quote:
We gonna ride in Louisiana - $4.00 a gallon gas by Labor day.
if so that means tons of jobs and primary and secondary businesses will do well and whole economy here. Don't worry u can ride your scooter to your job at burger king.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 8:21 am to skinny domino
Mullah Domino
Posted on 7/18/18 at 8:44 am to Muthsera
quote:
Sanctions turning off the spigot for Iranian crude
I have done no such thing
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