quote:
Thing is, he doesn't have to take enough states to win. Just denying either side a path to 270 and throwing the election to the House would be epically disruptive. I'd be wearing a Kevlar helmet if I were him.

I’d be surprised if he could win a state. When’s the last time an independent got electoral votes? George Wallace during desegregation?

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Posted by Indefatigable

Member since Jan 2019

37265 posts

Posted on 10/9/23 at 4:21 pm to Ag Zwin

quote:
Thing is, he doesn't have to take enough states to win.

He won’t get more than 3-5% in any state.

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Posted by Indefatigable

Member since Jan 2019

37265 posts

Posted on 10/9/23 at 4:23 pm to ManBearSharkReb

quote:
It’s mathematically possible to win. Clinton won in 92 with 43% of the vote.

Popular vote is totally meaningless.

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Posted by Indefatigable

Member since Jan 2019

37265 posts

Posted on 10/9/23 at 4:25 pm to deltaland

quote:
When’s the last time an independent got electoral votes? George Wallace during desegregation?

I believe so.

The only way RFK impacts this election is if he siphons votes from one of the major candidates in places like Wisconsin where elections are razor thin like Stein did in 16. He’s zero threat to even compete in any state for Electoral votes.

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Posted by Ag Zwin

Member since Mar 2016

26284 posts

Posted on 10/9/23 at 4:39 pm to deltaland

quote:
I’d be surprised if he could win a state. When’s the last time an independent got electoral votes? George Wallace during desegregation?

When was the last time there was a significant challenger AND both parties had disapproval ratings well over 50%?

In 2016, the Libertarians and Greens were enough to ensure nobody (including Hillary) got a popular vote majority, but both candidates were lightweights.

Might end up saying the same thing about RFK, might not. The appetite from the people is historically high, though.