re: Reporter met with silence after asking Pennsylvania voters who feel good about economy?

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Bard

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A very well-reasoned and astute response.

I also agree that the Fed acted appropriately. However, I suspect we would not have had continued economic growth and the soft landing we are experiencing without the infrastructure act.

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However, I suspect we would not have had continued economic growth, and the soft landing we are experiencing without the infrastructure act.

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We're not in a soft landing, we're in a lull before the storm.

The stimmy checks, rent forbearance, expanded COVID benefits, etc. all added up to create a massive inflationary environment. You can't create such an environment and get out of it with just some "transitory" inflation, all you'll do kick the can of economic results down the road and that's where we're at.

The continued economic growth is built heavily on historically high consumer debt on historically high lending rates, all while real wages have been essentially flat. This means that in order for consumers to pay those debts down one of two things must happen:

1. Wages must increase dramatically. Consumer wages for lower, mid and likely even the lowest levels of the upper income bracket would need to increase by enough that it would break most (if not all) companies and that's just for the current level of consumer debt (not factoring in the very likely continued rise in inflation, the return of student loan repayments, etc) unless they cut hours/headcount and/or raised prices (thus keeping inflation sticky)

2. Consumer credit bubble pops. With so much of the economy running on debt now, a recession would likely create a domino effect of economic negativity. A recession would mean rising Unemployment, which means fewer people with jobs with the income levels needed to keep making those high-interest debt payments (even just servicing). As they become delinquent and then default, their access to credit dries up which then mandates they restrict buying to mainly only necessities. That dries up GDP, which causes more layoffs, which causes more consumers to hold back their spending, etc in a downward spiral until the economy reaches its equilibrium point.

The dirty little secret here is that both options lead to the same thing: a recession. Now you may be saying "yeah, but a recession isn't coming". One of the strongest and most reliable indicators of an upcoming recession is the inverted yield curve.



Within 6-12 months of the yield curve moving back to normal behavior (longer term yields being higher than lower term yields) we go into a recession. This has held true for every recession since the gauge started being used. Every. Single. One. We've been in the current inversion for over a year and a half now and while the depth and time length of an inversion has no known indication of depth nor time length of the following recession, the correlation that there will be one is 1:1.

Maybe I'm wrong though. If I'm wrong then we shouldn't be seeing things like increasing auto loan defaults and 40% of student loans going unpaid to go along with the rising credit card delinquencies I linked earlier, yet here we are.

Inflationary pressures are like steam in a furnace. You can't increase the pressure faster and/or for longer than you are decreasing it without an eventual explosion of some level. The Inflation Reduction Act (along with the continued fuqtarded level of continued deficit spending by Congress) has been fighting the Fed's efforts to the point where there is no way out of this without serious economic pain (if that option ever really existed). Any benefits have been short-term and at the expense of creating even greater pain once we reach the end of the can-kicking road.

With inflation that will happen. What is the real telltale sign is profit margin. If that’s a record, then you might have an argument. Otherwise, you’re just showing economic ignorance.

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. I'd say over 2/3 of Wall Street does.

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At least that much in Congress.

I stand corrected lol Imagine being THIS stupid

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I suspect we would not have had continued economic growth and the soft landing we are experiencing

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We havent come close to landing yet.

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This is such a stupid timeline.

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You think its corporate profits. You cant be helped.

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It's almost like every politician in Washington is owned by the corporations.

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Reddy Tiger needs to learn about economies of scale.

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It's almost like every politician in Washington is owned by the corporations.

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They are. PAC's have made us the United States of Corporations.

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The people that voted for Biden in 2020, have been dead over 20 years. They can’t be convinced.

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That's a pretty stupid response in and of itself, but I know. Stick your fingers in your ears and refuse to listen. If the people in Philly running the election organization are still anti-Trump, it doesn't matter what the voices from farm country are saying. That's where the big anti-Trump population is.

Also known as "fake news".

Give me a group of fat black women from Philly and see how they respond.