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re: Remember the pollsters have nothing to lose by being wildly wrong this year
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:31 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:31 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:And they were also the only polling service to predict the FL results that year.
So they got the winner right but were further away from the actual number than everyone else who got it wrong.
The Trafalgar group explained why they missed on GA and TX.
Stated that the ground game that year from the Democrats was far higher than they thought. Credited the party for putting that together.
At the same time Real Clear Politics STILL credited them as the most accurate polling service in 2018.
1
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:34 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The Trafalgar group explained why they missed on GA and TX.
You can explain a lot of things, but being off by 11 is bonkers for any polling organization.
Like you said, they still did really well that year - but I bet you their best results occurred when Republicans won, and their worst results came when Dems either won or came close to it.
That says a lot.
Like my college roomie who predicted Saints by TDs every year since 2006 - he looked like a frickin genius in 2009
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:36 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Probability in a one off event is useless. It is only useful when the scenario can be repeated.
It amazes me that more people don't understand this.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:38 pm to Flats
quote:
Probability in a one off event is useless
quote:
It amazes me that more people don't understand this.
Would you ask a one night stand if she was on birth control before you unloaded inside her?
Because if the answer is yes, then you need to reconsider your post.
If the answer is no, then you're a braver man than I.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:39 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Would you ask a one night stand if she was on birth control before you unloaded inside her?
Because if the answer is yes, then you need to reconsider your post.
If the answer is no, then you're a braver man than I.
That probably made sense in your head. It didn't translate.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:48 pm to Bonkers119
quote:
Bonkers119
Why are you poor?
Did you come from a broken home?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:50 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:Well, that isn’t a one off event.
Would you ask a one night stand if she was on birth control before you unloaded inside her?
Because if the answer is yes, then you need to reconsider your post.
If the answer is no, then you're a braver man than I.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:51 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Well, that isn’t a one off event
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:55 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:This is \non sequitur for any genuine discussion of a comparison of Trafalgar and Nate Silver.
The fact that they haven't been around for too long probably doesn't help, either.
First and most important, over 90% of "the polls" as prepared now, are politically motivated for whatever reason the favored political shepherd wants. IOW, it is exactly like the media. The methods of ALL OF THE "BIDEN IS UP" big numbers are bogus and a direct result of showing ECACTLY what the Democrat Party wants shown for whatever reason the Democrat Party wants it shown the way, IOW EXACTLY like the media. Paint that Bullshite picture... disregard the meaningless sourcing of the paint
Second, and has been roundly discussed by the most intuitive here:
1. Without the fully cockamamie polls, EVERY OTHER MEASURE INDICATES TRUMP IN FRONT BY A WIDE MARGIN. Crowd size, enthusiasm, better off than four years ago, economic measure, lack of military adventuring (who knew the vilent Democrats would turn into such war mongering), taxes, presidential accomplishment.
2. THOSE THAT FOLLOW those RULES OF THUMB, have a vastly higher success of prediction rate than the "lets pretend for Joe because it pays" numbskulls.
3. Another important indicator is what is said by the campaigns about the ones THEY pay. They obtain the best polling operation and get the best prediction - as good as the rule of thumb predictors. So what have they said about their polling operations? Trump has bee signaling that theirs is showing him ahead in all battlegrounds, WAY ahead in some, and a solid "hard to tell" in PA (apparently true), that MN could go his way, and he clearly has the electoral votes falling into line for victory.
What have the BIDEN zombie guides had to say?. Well, just a week or so ago they warned their followers to "NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS" and that they had a lot of ground to make up. Sounds like they know they are losing and will lose.
4. WILDCARD/OCTOBER SURPRISE - Well, if you have to be told what has happened you dont have the reasoning ability to discuss this in any meaningful way.
SO, tout the media polls, they are all you have and are the most meaningless part of the unfolding story.
The REAL indicators are M A G A all the way...
Thank God.
Biden is losing badly.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:59 pm to JJJimmyJimJames
That's a whole lot of words to say that you believe your gut over the data.
And hell, you might be correct. We'll see.
And hell, you might be correct. We'll see.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:01 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:Actually that is the only gleanable data in this election, where the media has created the polling situation. FAR SUPERIOR to the clown polls that tried to go 15, 8 3, last week and felt the need to go back to 8
That's a whole lot of words to say that you believe your gut over the data.
And hell, you might be correct. We'll see.
Thats why the RULE OF THUMB prediction guys, usually professors, are the best performing
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:16 pm to oogabooga68
I overheard a convo one of my employees was having about the site predictit and how Vegas doesn't care about politics just facts and all this and how it would be a Biden landslide. I didnt tell them the part that Vegas just hedges the line based on who the money is coming in for. A site like that is almost certainly mostly young dems in their 20s and 30s betting on who the media tells them to put it on.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:42 pm to xxTIMMYxx
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:43 pm to xxTIMMYxx
quote:
Didn't last time
Last time most Democrat polls worth a shite were saying HC will win the popular vote and Trump had about a 30% chance of winning the Electoral college. 1/3 ain’t the worst odds.
Its one thing to be inaccurate and grossly wrong. Most polls were accurate, but predictions were wrong.
If most of the pollsters are wrong in 2020, they are vastly inaccurate and grossly wrong. And not only that, their predictions would be incorrect twice in a row. You can mess up once at a job, but to do twice when they are claiming Biden is going to crush Trump is going to get your arse fired.
My thoughts are Trump is probably losing but it’s not a non 0% chance, unless things shift heavily in the next week in his favor. If you think Trump is winning in a landslide you live in a fairyland or need to get out of your bubble lol
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 8:21 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
They either think Biden will win, or they think that the majority of people wanting to bet on the election think Biden will win.
That's not how it works.
That’s exactly how it works. The favorite and the underdog are based on public perception. It this case the guy at -200 is the favorite. The casino is making you pay more money to win $100 than if you bet the dog.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 7:05 am to MrFizzle
quote:
Are you kidding? If they are wrong every single one of them is losing their job
No, Liberal hacks fail UPWARDS.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 8:58 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
the frick does this have to do with anything I said?
how fricking stupid are you that you can't follow the logical progression of a simple sentence?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:01 am to LSUROXS
quote:
Actually, that's false. If they whiff this go around like 2016, it could put them out of business. The media has ruined it for pollsters. People think pollsters are an arm of the Dem party and either don't want to tell their voting intentions or they want to jack with the pollsters because people don't trust them.
I honestly think that some of them just can't bring themselves to say Trump is ahead.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:11 am to xxTIMMYxx
quote:
I honestly think that some of them just can't bring themselves to say Trump is ahead.
This as well.
Regardless of how far ahead Trump is, do you ever think CNN or MSNBC is going to have headlines touting Trumps giant lead? Hell no.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 10:03 am to xxTIMMYxx
As of this morning in the gambling market 67% of all bets have been placed in Trump. Bets on Trump to win Arizona and Georgia have increased accounting for 59% and 60% of all bets placed.
Trumps odds in PA improved overnight and he is now a +210 underdog and Biden is at -275.
Trump to win the electoral college vote has moved from +162 to +188. A $100 bet returns $188. Biden’s odds from -200 haven’t changed.
Trumps odds in PA improved overnight and he is now a +210 underdog and Biden is at -275.
Trump to win the electoral college vote has moved from +162 to +188. A $100 bet returns $188. Biden’s odds from -200 haven’t changed.
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