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re: Remember the pollsters have nothing to lose by being wildly wrong this year
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:49 pm to Vacherie Saint
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:49 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
It's research bias. These pollsters have benefactors to answer to.
There is no benefit to setting your credibility on fire just to put perfume on a pig.
3
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:49 pm to ROPO
Elections organically tend to tighten in the closing weeks. It's odd that this one hasn't yet.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:51 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Those polls aren't meant for the informed that keep up with politics. It is meant for the average person that may just "Trump isn't going to win and I don't have time to vote so screw it".
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:51 pm to NawlinsTiger9
early voting setting records
so to me it seems like they should have a better idea of the final results than ever before?
so to me it seems like they should have a better idea of the final results than ever before?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:52 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
I'm not saying you're wrong, I've just never met a single human being that thinks like that 
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:54 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
There is no benefit
There is no harm in it for the pollsters either. Dems like seeing their candidate ahead and their views being validated, so they will continue to pay attention to those polls even if they turn out to be wrong. They already believe that progressive views are more popular than they actually are because the media and education systems reinforce their inaccurate perception of majority views. The networks pump the polls over and over. Dems see the polls and believe them.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:54 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Credibility?
When did networks or the pollsters they hire ever have credibility? Yet they make more cash than ever. They arent beholden to the consumer. They are beholden to corporate advertisers who love them some dem.
When did networks or the pollsters they hire ever have credibility? Yet they make more cash than ever. They arent beholden to the consumer. They are beholden to corporate advertisers who love them some dem.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:54 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:
so to me it seems like they should have a better idea of the final results than ever before?
Yeah, I think so.
Also, here's this on the topic in the OP
LINK
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:55 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Several polls have. Maybe just not the ones you like?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:56 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
so to me it seems like they should have a better idea of the final results than ever before?
quote:
Yeah, I think so.
You both are idiots, but carry on.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:56 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
networks
I'm not even talking about networks, though.
There are dozens and dozens of independent polling firms that have essentially everything to lose by being consistently wrong. They aren't lighting a match to their career just to present a positive façade that has no impact on the actual election.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:57 pm to Jp1LSU
quote:
They either think Biden will win, or they think that the majority of people wanting to bet on the election think Biden will win.
That's not how it works.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:57 pm to Jp1LSU
How did Vegas change in 2 days? Trump was the favorite in Vegas according to some other threads this weekend.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:57 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Several polls have. Maybe just not the ones you like?
I try to focus on averages.
This has been a very consistent election in that regard.
You also have to watch out for herding during this time of year.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:58 pm to LSU Patrick
gimme a break dude. i do not want sleepy Joe to win but I think the odds are heavily in his favor so that's why I placed my $$ on him
nate silver will either be a king or a laughing stock after this is all over. I'll say that much
nate silver will either be a king or a laughing stock after this is all over. I'll say that much
Posted on 10/26/20 at 3:59 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
There is no harm in it for the pollsters either. Dems like seeing their candidate ahead and their views being validated, so they will continue to pay attention to those polls even if they turn out to be wrong. They already believe that progressive views are more popular than they actually are because the media and education systems reinforce their inaccurate perception of majority views. The networks pump the polls over and over. Dems see the polls and believe them.
This is kind of my point
Look at all the people who have to be in on this for your theory to be correct
It seems like way less work just to do the job correctly.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:00 pm to Jp1LSU
quote:
They either think Biden will win, or they think that the majority of people wanting to bet on the election think Biden will win
it's not a matter of what they think.
Lot's of people betting on Biden will drive up the odds because they want to entice more people to put money on Trump.
The goal for them is to have equal money on both so they can pay off the winners with the losers and make their money on the vig.
The betting line is a reflection of where people are placing their bets, not what the casino "thinks" the outcome will be.
People are betting on Biden because of the polls.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:00 pm to Mr Perfect
I'm not going to convince you. I guess 2016 didn't convince you either. Thanks for the entertainment though. 
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:00 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:Yep.
nate silver will either be a king or a laughing stock after this is all over. I'll say that much
This election is going to destroy some pollsters, particularly Trafalgar or Nate Silver.
One of them is going down HARD after November 3rd.
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