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re: Remember the pollsters have nothing to lose by being wildly wrong this year
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:13 pm to Mr Perfect
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:13 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:People give Nate leeway with his 30% bullshite excuse, but he was overall wrong in 2016.
agreed nate will be done. ive been checking on him every day and he keeps digging in further and further on the sleepy Joe win.
He won’t be able to justify his percentages this time if Trump wins.
1
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:13 pm to oogabooga68
I think polling in general will never be as accurate as it was from the 70s through 2000's.
The increase in SPAM calls, Caller ID abilities, serious decrease in Landline usage (etc during the past 10 years) has greatly impacted the type of person that will take the time to answer a phone call, text message, or email.
its my theory that the more conservative parts of society, even WITHIN the republican party, are less likely to participate vs more liberal or moderate individuals.
this doesnt even take into consideration people that are trolling or straight up lying to pollsters.
ETA- and they dont know how to fix it
ETA2- you know women and soy boys are more willing to participate than men...and this immediate would throw off Trumps numbers in itself
The increase in SPAM calls, Caller ID abilities, serious decrease in Landline usage (etc during the past 10 years) has greatly impacted the type of person that will take the time to answer a phone call, text message, or email.
its my theory that the more conservative parts of society, even WITHIN the republican party, are less likely to participate vs more liberal or moderate individuals.
this doesnt even take into consideration people that are trolling or straight up lying to pollsters.
ETA- and they dont know how to fix it
ETA2- you know women and soy boys are more willing to participate than men...and this immediate would throw off Trumps numbers in itself
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:14 pm to SCLibertarian
quote:
Trump cannot win and anyone who thinks so is nuts
He hasn't once said this.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:14 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
If all these independent polling firms have gathered together to collude on the dumbest, most ineffectual goal ever, then so be it.
We have 3 major news networks that are 100% transparent propaganda machines for the Democrat party, and you think it's a "stretch" that someone might pay to skew polling data?
JFC.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:15 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
Except that's not what's happening at all
If anything it has the Trump fans even more fired up than usual
Maybe. I think the point of polls favoring Biden so much serve to make Trump fans question if they're missing something. Biden is so popular there must be something to it, right? At least I think that's a big part of the shy Trumper.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:15 pm to NawlinsTiger9
trafalgar crosstabs were taking down after nate analyzed and then attacked them on Twitter. idk what to think about it
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:16 pm to Scruffy
quote:
People give Nate leeway with his 30% bullshite excuse
It's just probability, though.
I know he's an easy target, but he was giving Trump more of a shot than most.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:17 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:I mean, that would only make sense if it happened only once.
To put it short, I think there's a belief that they arrive at correct conclusions with a bad process.
Their process has put out accurate results multiple times.
How can it still be called a “bad process”?
I believe part of it is that Nate Silver feels one upped by them, which is why he publicly craps on them often.
I never see him crap on those polls that have Biden up >10 in states that don’t make sense, and he even gives those that royally missed 2016 better ratings.
Had Nate arrived at the same result as Trafalgar in 2016, he likely wouldn’t have as big of an issue with them, IMO.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:17 pm to Dave Worth
the psychology behind it is weird.. my gf is a sleepy Joe supporter and she is nervous about all the polls saying he's in the lead bc she thinks no one will go out and vote
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:17 pm to oogabooga68
quote:
Remember the pollsters have nothing to lose by being wildly wrong this year
Actually, that's false. If they whiff this go around like 2016, it could put them out of business. The media has ruined it for pollsters. People think pollsters are an arm of the Dem party and either don't want to tell their voting intentions or they want to jack with the pollsters because people don't trust them.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:18 pm to Jp1LSU
quote:
The casino odds are making Biden a 2:1 favorite now. They’re in on it too.
Vegas is basing their numbers off the polls - it’s exactly the same BS in 2016.
The difference is now people are vocally favoring Trump this time. Who knows how the election ends up. Both sides are going to claim voter fraud either way. Place your money on that instead.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:18 pm to CptRusty
quote:
We have 3 major news networks that are 100% transparent propaganda machines for the Democrat party
the frick does this have to do with anything I said?
quote:
you think it's a "stretch" that someone might pay to skew polling data?
paying SOMEONE to skew polling data is one thing
paying EVERYONE to skew all the polls is another
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:19 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:Completely irrelevant, IMO.
It's just probability, though.
I know he's an easy target, but he was giving Trump more of a shot than most.
Are you going to give him the same consideration if he is wrong again with his current ~10% chances?
Probability in a one off event is useless. It is only useful when the scenario can be repeated.
It is a 1 or 0 game.
He predicted Clinton would win.
She didn’t.
He was wrong.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:22 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:If he is wrong, he won’t be able to recover from that.
nate silver says 71% chance for Dems 3 way sweep. this guy is going all in on his prediction
Damn.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:23 pm to MrFizzle
quote:
Are you kidding? If they are wrong every single one of them is losing their job
Sure, if their job was accuracy. It isn’t
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:24 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Their process has put out accurate results multiple times.
How can it still be called a “bad process”?
we're still talking about a small sample size, though
And that's just moneyline 1:1 picking. Their margins can be crazy. They had Kemp winning Georgia by 12 for frick's sake.
So they got the winner right but were further away from the actual number than everyone else who got it wrong.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:25 pm to Scruffy
agreed.. he will need to rebrand bc no one will forget this ever
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:26 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
Who here would be surprised if blacks who vote for Trump lie to an exit pollster? I'd say that you can add at least 5% to whatever the exit polls say the black vote for trump ends up being.
Probably so.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:31 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
He hasn't once said this.
Not in so many words, but it's the same 2016 bs. Polling in an age of no landline phones and social media doxxing is dead. With a 65% turnout, and the response rates of polls being so low, the data they put out is completely untrustworthy. In 8 days, Nate Silver is going to have less credibility than a used car salesman in Queens.
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