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Message
Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:10 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:10 am
States Trump is most likely to win in 2020 that he didn't in 2016 (most to least likely):
New Hampshire (30% chance)
Minnesota (25%)
Nevada (20%)
New Mexico (15%)
Virginia (10%)
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Michigan (75% chance)
Wisconsin (60%)
Pennsylvania (50%)
Arizona (40%)
Florida (40%)
New Hampshire (30% chance)
Minnesota (25%)
Nevada (20%)
New Mexico (15%)
Virginia (10%)
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Michigan (75% chance)
Wisconsin (60%)
Pennsylvania (50%)
Arizona (40%)
Florida (40%)
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:51 am
9
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:18 am to GeneralLee
New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no
I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no
quote:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida
I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:19 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:18 am to GeneralLee
quote:
New Hampshire
Nope. This is a state he lost narrowly in 2016 but where he’s become much more unpopular since being in office.
ETA: +1 favorability when he took office, -20 now.
This post was edited on 6/12/19 at 9:22 am
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:21 am to GeneralLee
I’ll go with Georgia and Arizona biggest concern and biggest surprise trump wins Pennsylvania again with good margins.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:22 am to jb4
Georgia may flip in 2024 but not in 2020. Abrams was only close due to it being a midterm election.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:22 am to BugAC
quote:
New Mexico - no
Idk baw. I’ve been seeing a lot of Trump hats around these parts lately
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:24 am to GeneralLee
nm
This post was edited on 5/21/20 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:27 am to GeneralLee
Virginia is full blue.
based on 2016 results, the 5 closest Hillary states were: (within 5%)
New Hampshire - D +0.4
Minnesota - D +1.5
Nevada - D +2.4
Maine - D +2.9
Colorado - D +4.9
6 closest Trump States (within 5%):
Michigan - R +0.2
Pennsylvania - R +0.7
Wisconsin - R +1.7
Florida - R +1.6
Arizona R +3.6
North Carolina - R +3.6
based on 2016 results, the 5 closest Hillary states were: (within 5%)
New Hampshire - D +0.4
Minnesota - D +1.5
Nevada - D +2.4
Maine - D +2.9
Colorado - D +4.9
6 closest Trump States (within 5%):
Michigan - R +0.2
Pennsylvania - R +0.7
Wisconsin - R +1.7
Florida - R +1.6
Arizona R +3.6
North Carolina - R +3.6
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:29 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Georgia may flip in 2024 but not in 2020. Abrams was only close due to it being a midterm election.
I agree with you that Georgia won’t flip (unless Dems win in a blowout) but the 2018 midterm pretty much had 2016-level turnout.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:31 am to GeneralLee
I guess DC finally took a strong foothold in Virginia it likely will never be a red state ever again.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:35 am to BugAC
quote:
New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no
quote:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida
I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
we could feasibly take Colorado as well
Florida is 100% safe for us, Dems will put on a full court press in GA & NC, but won't take either
Arizona will be tight, but I'm pretty sure we hold on there
the ones we need to worry about are MI, WI & PA
we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:36 am to dcbl
Y’all are allergic to polling, huh?
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:37 am to dcbl
quote:
we could feasibly take Colorado as well
Doubtful, but perhaps it is close enough that Gardner can hold onto that Senate seat.
quote:
we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee
WI is looking better imho due to the f***up that their current Dem governor is and the state Supreme Court election upset.
MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.
PA is going to be a barnburner. Lots of new Trump voters in that state in 2016, and Philly had decent turnout in 2016 for Clinton.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:38 am to inelishaitrust
quote:polls are used to shape the narrative and suppress conservative votes, especially in a presidential election year
Y’all are allergic to polling, huh?
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:41 am to GeneralLee
quote:Trump will gain with white working class voters, and I expect him to also have significant increases with black voters
MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.
so we probably WILL see a higher turnout in Detroit, but it won't be the typical 90/10 dem advantage
my predict8is that Trump takes at least 15% of the black vote and maybe even into the 20s
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:45 am to dcbl
If I were betting, I would go With dems winning Michigan in 2020. Also, it’s a long shot but wouldn’t be shocked if Biden picked current Michigan governor for veep. I like Ohio and Florida in the bag right now for trump with Wisconsin trending his way.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 10:00 am to dcbl
quote:
polls are used to shape the narrative and suppress conservative votes, especially in a presidential election year
But they’ve been pretty accurate the last couple of elections. Polling in 2016 missed the popular vote by 1 point (although it was much less reliable on a state-by-state basis). No reason to think that we can’t use polling to draw some conclusions about the race.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that Trump will outperform his approval rating in most cases but If he’s 19 points underwater in a state, it’s pretty unlikely that he’s gonna win it.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 10:16 am to GeneralLee
quote:
States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):
Iowa. Obama won in 2012, most hit by Trump policies.
Posted on 6/12/19 at 10:21 am to mmcgrath
quote:
Iowa. Obama won in 2012, most hit by Trump policies
Not happening. A farmer who is pissed at Trump's tariffs is going to vote for someone who is going to rearm the EPA against farmers and try to implement the Green New Deal?
Posted on 6/12/19 at 10:57 am to inelishaitrust
quote:
although it was much less reliable on a state-by-state basis
which is kind of important eh?
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