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GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8670 posts

Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
States Trump is most likely to win in 2020 that he didn't in 2016 (most to least likely):

New Hampshire (30% chance)
Minnesota (25%)
Nevada (20%)
New Mexico (15%)
Virginia (10%)

States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):

Michigan (75% chance)
Wisconsin (60%)
Pennsylvania (50%)
Arizona (40%)
Florida (40%)

This post was edited on 6/12 at 9:51 am


BugAC
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2007
34240 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no

quote:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida


I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?
This post was edited on 6/12 at 9:19 am


inelishaitrust
Ole Miss Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Jan 2008
25719 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

New Hampshire


Nope. This is a state he lost narrowly in 2016 but where he’s become much more unpopular since being in office.

ETA: +1 favorability when he took office, -20 now.
This post was edited on 6/12 at 9:22 am


jb4
Arkansas Fan
Member since Apr 2013
9286 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
I’ll go with Georgia and Arizona biggest concern and biggest surprise trump wins Pennsylvania again with good margins.


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8670 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Georgia may flip in 2024 but not in 2020. Abrams was only close due to it being a midterm election.


WaydownSouth
LSU Fan
West of the Mississippi
Member since Nov 2018
1335 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

New Mexico - no


Idk baw. I’ve been seeing a lot of Trump hats around these parts lately


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71
sacrathetic
USA Fan
Member since May 2019
101 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
I made this post in another thread:

2016 results

New Hampshire (4 EV's):
Clinton - 348,526
Trump - 345,790
---------------
Diff - 2,736

Chance for Trump to flip: very high


Minnesota (10 EV's):
Clinton - 1,367,716
Trump - 1,322,951
---------------
Diff - 44,765

Chance for Trump to flip: moderate



New Mexico (5 EV's):
Clinton - 385,234
Trump - 319,667
---------------
Diff - 65,567

Chance for Trump to flip: slim


Nevada (6 EV's):
Clinton - 539,260
Trump - 512,058
--------------
Diff - 27,202

Chance for Trump to flip: moderate

Maine (at large) (2 EV's):
Clinton - 357,735
Trump - 335,593
--------------
Diff - 22,142

Chance for Trump to flip: moderate
*Note, Trump won Maine 2nd CD (1 EV) in 2016. He lost Maine 1st CD (1 EV) really bad and likely has no chance to win it in 2020.



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10
tigeraddict
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
7216 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Virginia is full blue.

based on 2016 results, the 5 closest Hillary states were: (within 5%)

New Hampshire - D +0.4
Minnesota - D +1.5
Nevada - D +2.4
Maine - D +2.9
Colorado - D +4.9

6 closest Trump States (within 5%):

Michigan - R +0.2
Pennsylvania - R +0.7
Wisconsin - R +1.7
Florida - R +1.6
Arizona R +3.6
North Carolina - R +3.6



inelishaitrust
Ole Miss Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Jan 2008
25719 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

Georgia may flip in 2024 but not in 2020. Abrams was only close due to it being a midterm election.


I agree with you that Georgia won’t flip (unless Dems win in a blowout) but the 2018 midterm pretty much had 2016-level turnout.


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12
Jake_LaMotta
Alabama Fan
Coral Gables
Member since Sep 2017
5700 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
I guess DC finally took a strong foothold in Virginia it likely will never be a red state ever again.


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30
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dcbl
USA Fan
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
19439 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no

quote:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida


I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?


we could feasibly take Colorado as well

Florida is 100% safe for us, Dems will put on a full court press in GA & NC, but won't take either

Arizona will be tight, but I'm pretty sure we hold on there

the ones we need to worry about are MI, WI & PA

we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee


inelishaitrust
Ole Miss Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Jan 2008
25719 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
Y’all are allergic to polling, huh?


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8670 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

we could feasibly take Colorado as well


Doubtful, but perhaps it is close enough that Gardner can hold onto that Senate seat.

quote:

we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee


WI is looking better imho due to the f***up that their current Dem governor is and the state Supreme Court election upset.

MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.

PA is going to be a barnburner. Lots of new Trump voters in that state in 2016, and Philly had decent turnout in 2016 for Clinton.


dcbl
USA Fan
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
19439 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

Y’all are allergic to polling, huh?
polls are used to shape the narrative and suppress conservative votes, especially in a presidential election year



dcbl
USA Fan
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
19439 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.

Trump will gain with white working class voters, and I expect him to also have significant increases with black voters

so we probably WILL see a higher turnout in Detroit, but it won't be the typical 90/10 dem advantage

my predict8is that Trump takes at least 15% of the black vote and maybe even into the 20s


jb4
Arkansas Fan
Member since Apr 2013
9286 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
If I were betting, I would go With dems winning Michigan in 2020. Also, it’s a long shot but wouldn’t be shocked if Biden picked current Michigan governor for veep. I like Ohio and Florida in the bag right now for trump with Wisconsin trending his way.


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10
inelishaitrust
Ole Miss Fan
Oxford, MS
Member since Jan 2008
25719 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

polls are used to shape the narrative and suppress conservative votes, especially in a presidential election year


But they’ve been pretty accurate the last couple of elections. Polling in 2016 missed the popular vote by 1 point (although it was much less reliable on a state-by-state basis). No reason to think that we can’t use polling to draw some conclusions about the race.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Trump will outperform his approval rating in most cases but If he’s 19 points underwater in a state, it’s pretty unlikely that he’s gonna win it.


mmcgrath
LSU Fan
New Jersey
Member since Feb 2010
24594 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

States Trump won in 2016 that he might lose in 2020 (most to least likely):

Iowa. Obama won in 2012, most hit by Trump policies.


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8670 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

Iowa. Obama won in 2012, most hit by Trump policies


Not happening. A farmer who is pissed at Trump's tariffs is going to vote for someone who is going to rearm the EPA against farmers and try to implement the Green New Deal?


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30
SportTiger1
New Orleans Saints Fan
Stonewall, LA
Member since Feb 2007
18808 posts

re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability
quote:

although it was much less reliable on a state-by-state basis


which is kind of important eh?


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