re: Pro-Trump Republicans will get nothing, not even retention of a House majority

WaPo Conservatism is George Will conservatism. No thanks.

Give me the giant orange a-hole who actually gets shite done any day.

Melt little bitch

The link doesn't work.

Excellent post

Yeah, "conservative.". Who wrote that, Meghan McCain?

Not a trump fan here, and I have to say that article is a steaming cup of bullshite

Toddy, your link isn't working for me. And why not just say this is a Jennifer Rubin article?

Anyway, I think her advice here to the GOP (rally now as a party to turn against Trump, push him out of office, and hope for a President Pence?) is half-baked and absurd. What makes your thread (and Rubin's article) interesting, however, is the underlying data from the Quinnipiac poll.

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From May 4 – 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling health care?

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Only 28% approve, and 66% disapprove.

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42. Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's tax plan?

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Only 30% approve, and 52% disapprove.

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TREND: As president, do you think Donald Trump should support efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, or not?

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Only 44% say yes, and 53% say no.

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TREND: Do you think President Trump and the Republicans in Congress should repeal all of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, should repeal parts of the healthcare law but keep other parts, or should not repeal any of the Affordable Care Act? (*President-elect)

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Only 19% say "repeal all"; 45% say "repeal parts"; and 34% say "not repeal".

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60. There is a revised Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, known as the American Health Care Act. Do you approve or disapprove of this revised Republican health care plan?

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Only 21% approve, and 56% disapprove.

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61. Under this Republican health care plan, do you think your health insurance costs would go up, go down, or do you think the costs would stay about the same as they are now?

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Only 11% say "go down", and 42% say "go up."

(That response confuses the hell out of me, by the way.)

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62. Do you approve or disapprove of the current law which prevents health insurance companies from raising insurance rates for Americans with pre-existing conditions?

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Only 32% disapprove, and 64% approve.

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63. Do you think that giving states the ability to decide whether or not to allow health insurance companies to raise insurance rates for Americans with pre-existing conditions

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Only 21% say "good idea", and 75% say "bad idea."


But what is the best strategy for Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell here?

I think you have to take public opinion polls on health care and tax law with a grain of salt right now. There is an incredible amount of ignorance on these subjects for the average American voter, and the GOP is still in the back-room deal-making phase, rather than in the public support campaigning mode. This is as it should be, because you don't want to try to rally the people behind the party's legislation before you even know what that legislation will look like. So it's okay to take some hits in public opinion polls for now.

The AHCA just passed the House on Thursday, May 4, and McConnell will have his hands full trying to get something passed in the Senate with 50 votes using budget reconciliation--both on the procedural front to stop a Democratic filibuster, and also on the vote-counting front. (How do you pass anything that will have the support of Ted Cruz & Rand Paul & Mike Lee on the one hand, and also the support of Susan Collins & Dean Heller & Lisa Murkowski on the other hand?)

Then comes tax reform. Some of the proposals floated by Trump simply won't fly, but it's nothing to get too worked up about, because it's part of Trump's bargaining schtick to stake out absurd maximalist positions early on in the process, to give him more maneuvering room for later. Fine. So far, Trump has managed to strike a deal with Ryan to get Ryan to support his crappy border-adjustment tax ideas, but I think Ryan has upheld his part of the bargain by putting up a good faith effort, and those adjustments can go ahead and get scrapped. Some type of tax reform is coming, and some kind of health care reform is coming (a 2nd round after whatever becomes of the AHCA may also be coming, albeit much later).

Anyway, when the 1st round passes at healthcare and tax reform pass, THEN the Congressional GOP can worry about uniting around a public campaign to rally public support for the 2018 Congressional elections. The public opinion numbers will hopefully start looking much better for them then.

In the meantime, however, yeah, Jennifer Rubin has a good point about Trump's shenanigans threatening to torpedo all of this for the Republicans, and leave them with a House election disaster. That's a very real threat. I just don't think she puts forward a credible plan of action for how best to handle it. I think the McConnell approach is the smartest play right now--i.e., try your best to lay low and kick these Russia investigations down the line until after you get your healthcare and tax reform bills passed.

Once those bills are passed, however, yeah... unleash the hounds on this shite. I think the idea of having a special investigator within the FBI is a flawed concept. This is a situation where only a Congressional investigation will do. Ryan & McConnell should definitely press ahead with those investigations... but let the timeline of the eventual conclusions and findings come out AFTER you've passed your major legislation. Every sophisticated GOP Congressman understands that Trump is a ticking time bomb for the party, but it's best not to take on his populist movement directly just yet.

That's the political game McConnell and others are playing right now. Good God, we live in crazy times.