Presidential Polls in swing states

Polls are pretty much garbage this time a year, especially national presidential polls this far out. Yet, 2 or 3 posters are determined to post every poll they see, as long as the poll supports their candidate on this board. And while i still believe all polls are mostly garbage right now, the polls that actually tell you something when it gets closer to election time will be state polls, not national polls. Why? Because the presidential election is determined by electors, not popular national vote. So, that being said, let's look at the swing states, the states Trump lost whether it be through fraud or failure, and how they look right now.

Keep in mind, DeSantis has not announced yet, and these are the most recent polls garnered from RealClearPolitics for that particular state. These polls are comparing Trump v. Biden and DeSantis v. Biden when available.

Arizona 4/11 - 4/13
DeSantis v. Biden = DeSantis +6
Trump v. Biden = Trump -1

Nevada 4/18-4/26

DeSantis v. Biden = DeSantis -1
Trump v. Biden = Trump -8

Georgia (old poll) 11/28-11/30

DeSantis v. Biden = DeSantis +4
Trump v. Biden = Trump -1

Wisconsin (old) 10/27 - 10/29

Trump v. Biden = Trump -1
DeSantis v. Biden = N/A

Pennsylvania 4/27

Trump V. Biden = Trump -4
DeSantis v. Biden = n/a

Virginia 2/12-2/21

Trump v. Biden = Trump -1
DeSantis v. Biden = DeSantis +5

North Carolina 3/26

Trump v. Biden = Trump -2
DeSantis v. Biden = DeSantis +5


Also, here is an msn article, (take it for what it's worth), that goes over this exact premise with some different polls.

LINK

quote:

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In April, a survey from GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies found that DeSantis would beat Biden in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Arizona in 2024 by 45 percent to 42 percent and 48 percent to 42 percent, respectively. The same survey also showed Biden would beat Trump again in those two states, just like the president did in 2020.

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quote:

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In North Carolina, a state that had its electoral votes increased by 15 to 16 in 2024, DeSantis would also beat Biden in a presidential face-off, according to a March 30 poll of 605 likely voters.

The Civitas Poll survey conducted for The John Locke Foundation showed that DeSantis would beat Biden in 2024 by 43.6 percent to 41. The results show the current president would also beating Trump by an even narrower margin of 45.4 to 43.4 percent, albeit with poll results falling within the margin of error of nearly 4 percent.

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quote:

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Elsewhere, an April poll of 500 voters by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies showed DeSantis with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Biden in the swing state of Georgia. In the same poll, Biden beat Trump by 43 percent to 42 percent.

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quote:

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However, before DeSantis can consider if he can beat Biden in 2024, he first must beat Trump in next year's GOP primary. Despite the early enthusiasm for his potential campaign, DeSantis has been falling further and further behind Trump in the polls.

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So with the knowledge that polls are garbage, for those that live and die by the polls right now, especially the primary polls, how does Trump win the states he lost in 2020 that still show he is down?

Now the flip side is, how can Ron beat Biden if he won't get a chance to face him. Well his official campaign doesn't start until Thursday so we'll see how well his ground game works. But is it really inconceivable that swing states that didn't go for Trump in 2020 still won't go for him in 2024?