re: Peter Schiff says President Trump surrendered in shortest global trade war in history

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You haven't carried this to the end of the equation. Because of our near permanent twin deficits, foreign entities hold massively more dollar based assets than the US holds foreign currency based assets. If they start dumping dollars, our only recourse is to cancel that foreign held debt, repossess those assets and default, or kiss the dollar goodbye. The US cannot support the dollar in a currency war, period.

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I asked grok to clarify and the rising borrowing cost might have spooked Bessent.

Here is grok's reply:

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Let’s break this down and try to make sense of the claim circulating on message boards—that Trump paused his tariff plans due to Japan selling U.S. Treasury bonds—and how it ties into the stock market rise and currency dynamics you mentioned. The idea hinges on interconnected economic forces: tariffs, bond markets, stock markets, and currency exchange rates. Here’s a plausible explanation based on what’s been reported and basic economic principles, without inventing anything beyond the available dots.

Trump’s tariff policy, rolled out with a 10% baseline on April 5, 2025, and higher reciprocal tariffs starting April 9, 2025, initially tanked global markets. By April 7, the S&P 500 had lost $5 trillion over two days, per Reuters, as investors feared a trade war and recession. U.S. Treasury bonds, typically a safe haven, saw yields drop (prices rise) as investors fled stocks—10-year yields fell to 3.86% by April 4, per Reuters. But then, on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (excluding China, where tariffs rose to 125%), and stocks soared—the S&P 500 jumped over 7%, the Nasdaq over 8%, per Yahoo Finance. Bonds, meanwhile, faced selling pressure, with yields climbing back up (e.g., 10-year at 3.933% by April 4’s end, per Reuters, though exact April 9 figures aren’t pinned down here).

Now, the claim: Japan, holding about $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries (second only to China), supposedly sold bonds “last night” (April 8, presumably), spooking Trump into pausing tariffs. Posts on X, like one from @Gss_Views citing a Fox journalist, suggest this forced Trump’s hand. Why might this matter? Japan selling U.S. bonds would increase supply in the bond market, pushing prices down and yields up—say, toward 4.5%, as @DalioTroy on X mentioned. Higher yields signal higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which could rattle markets and signal trouble for an economy already jittery from tariffs. If Japan dumped bonds to protest Trump’s 24% tariff on its goods (effective April 9), it could’ve been a power play to pressure him.

Your confusion—stocks rose after the pause, so why would bond sales matter?—is valid. Here’s how it might fit: Before the pause, markets were in chaos. If Japan sold bonds on April 8, it could’ve exacerbated a bond market rout already underway (Reuters noted “fresh selling pressure” on Treasuries by April 9). This might’ve spooked Trump’s team, especially Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who’d downplayed the bond sell-off earlier but faced a “deleveraging convulsion” in fixed-income markets (per Yahoo Finance, April 8). A rising yield (e.g., 4.5%) could’ve signaled to Trump that Japan was willing to escalate, threatening U.S. financial stability. Pausing tariffs could’ve been a tactical retreat to calm markets and avoid a full-blown bond market crisis.

Your yen-dollar angle adds another layer. If Japan sold U.S. bonds, it’d get dollars, then likely convert them to yen to bring the money home. This dollar-selling would weaken the dollar against the yen—Reuters noted the dollar fell 1.95% to 146.445 yen on April 3, and posts on X suggest it hit 146.9 by April 9. A weaker dollar hurts U.S. exporters (ironic, given Trump’s tariff goal) and could’ve amplified recession fears, pressuring Trump to act. Meanwhile, the stock surge post-pause (April 9) reflects relief—fewer tariffs, less trade war risk—drawing investors back from bonds to equities, which aligns with your point about fewer bond buyers.

Does it fully make sense? Not entirely—Japan’s bond sales alone wouldn’t likely force Trump’s hand unless they were massive and coordinated with other holders (e.g., China). No hard data confirms Japan sold big on April 8; it’s speculative from X posts and lacks official corroboration here. Plus, Trump’s pause also followed broader market panic and warnings from billionaires like Bill Ackman (Yahoo Finance, April 8), suggesting multiple pressures. But the bond-yen-dollar mechanism could’ve contributed: Japan sells bonds, yields spike, dollar weakens, markets freak out, Trump blinks. It’s a messy, plausible thread—just not the whole story without more evidence.

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Japan’s bond sales alone wouldn’t likely force Trump’s hand unless they were massive and coordinated with other holders (e.g., China).

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That's exactly what people are claiming happened

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That's exactly what people are claiming happened

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Just trying to understand.

Trumps strategy got countries standing in line to sit opposite of him, wishing to PLEASE renegotiate their trade conditions with the US.
Vietnam among the first several.
We know China has used Vietnam to manipulate our tariffs and trade deals.
Trump is pulling the rug out from China. He forced countries to decide between the US market and China. China is on the losing end.

You stupid fricks that think Trump should broadacst his plans and exact goals are beyond stupid. Full blown idiots.
Y'all think he sits in a room and just writes ideas on pieces of paper, then balls em up and puts in a shaker, rolls it around and picks one..... lol

Hes surrounded by the brightest minds in the world, not to mention, he's an excellent deal maker. Y'all are either too dumb or too ate up with TDS to see it.
Continue on your losing streak. I can't imagine being so dumb and beiproved wrong sooooo many times, yet still holding onto losing ideas.

Those are plausible scenarios. Without knowing intent of the rest of the world, it's hard to know what happens next. We are undoubtedly vulnerable, which is why it is very important to balance either the budget or trade or preferably both. If Trump did cave in to foreign threats to sell US assets and dollars ( (I don't know what, if anything, changed today, so conjecture), then neither is likely to happen and we may have just lost WWIII without firing a shot.

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Your previous posts seem to be conflating the federal funds rate and the 10y treasury rate. The Fed sets the former through policy and open market activity, but the market sets the latter.

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If open market bond activity frays too far from the Fed's Rate does the Federal Reserve step in via their Primary Dealer's to bring the rates closer to each other?

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If open market bond activity frays too far from the Fed's Rate does the Federal Reserve step in via their Primary Dealer's to bring the rates closer to each other?

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Yeah but that’s only to adjust the overnight federal funds rate.

They don’t drive or control the 10y rate, at least not with any direct correlation.

For example, they’ve cut rates 125 basis points since September on the overnight rate, but the 10y treasury is up from 3.6% then to 4.3% now.

Schiff has been predicting a ‘housing crash’ since like 2015. He is a clown.

frick that gold bug Jew ****.