re: Peter Navarro Warns Wall Street Globalists: “Stand Down” Or Else…

Basic economics and jingoism do not always work well together.

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Hurr durr nationalism good

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Damn straight it is. What comes first in your house, the welfare of your own family or the welfare of your neighbor's families? I hope you make the connection.

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It will also teach you that Keynes was a demi-God and Hayek and Von Mises were idiots.

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but I am amazed at how quickly domestic manufacturing has bounced back

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I'd suggest you take a sober look at the data and re-assess this. Here's a start:

total manufacturing employment:



iron & steel mill employment:



aluminum production employment:


total nonfarm employment, for context on just how "amazed" you should be by this manufacturing bounceback:


eta: updated to ensure graphs stay visible

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If is not in our best interest to get screwed up the arse by China forever either

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reminder: trade deficit still growing, including the quarter ending in september, which was the largest in a decade

same story with us/china. on pace for biggest deficit ever. q3 was largest q3 deficit ever

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Can y’all please have more patience than an infant to allow this trade skirmish to play out?

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can you please call out the ridiculous claims of this having played out in our favor already?

REEEEEEEEEEEEE

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Protected industries have, but the tariffs haven't improved prospects for anyone else.

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In other words, they worked and should be expanded.

Importance of Manufacturing in the U.S. Economy

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Manufacturing is an essential component of gross domestic product. In 2016, it was $2.25 trillion. That drove 11.7 percent of U.S. economic output. Manufactured goods comprise half of U.S. exports.

Manufacturing adds a lot of value to the power of the U.S. economy. Every dollar spent in manufacturing adds $1.89 in business growth in other supporting sectors. These include retailing, transportation, and business services.

The United States has 12.5 million manufacturing jobs. That employs 8.5 percent of the workforce. These jobs pay 12 percent more than all others. In 2015, they earned an average of $82,023 per worker. This includes benefits. That's $26.50 per hour. Yet, more than 600,000 jobs are still waiting for workers with the right skills.

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Trends

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Manufacturing used to be a larger component of the U.S. economy. In 1970, it was 24.3 percent of GDP, much larger than it is today.

America's edge as the world's leading manufacturer has also slipped. In 1985, it produced 28 percent of the world's goods. That's because the industry has only grown 1.1 percent a year since then. That's much slower than the 2.3 percent average growth rate of the economy as a whole.

It's also slower than our major trading partners are. China grew 9.8 percent; India, 5.1 percent; Germany, 3.6 percent; the United Kingdom, 2.8 percent; Canada, 2.7 percent; and Japan, 1.9 percent.

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Reasons for Decline

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The biggest reason is a shift to a service-based economy. Banking and other financial services began growing after 1999, when Congress repealed the Glass-Steagall Act.

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Outlook

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Manufacturing is forecast to increase faster than the general economy. According to the MAPI Foundation, production will grow 2.8 percent from 2018 - 2021. It will be boosted by President Trump's tax plan and a declining dollar.

But portions of the sector could suffer from Trump's trade war. It also depends on the strength of the U.S. dollar. If it weakens, that's good for exporters. But the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. That's making the dollar stronger.

Underlying these short-term developments are five new forces that are driving manufacturing's growth. First is increased productivity.

Second is the growing domestic production of domestic natural gas and shale oil.

The third reason is rising wages in emerging markets.

Fourth, companies realize the need to protect homegrown intellectual property.


Last, and probably least, is the awareness among consumers that "Made in America" means jobs for Americans.

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Trump's Impact on Manufacturing

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President Donald Trump promises to bring jobs back to manufacturing. He delivered on his promised tax cut for U.S. manufacturers and higher tariffs for those who build overseas. He must make these incentives equal to the additional cost of U.S. manufacturing. Otherwise, it won't be enough to bring back jobs. Trump's job creation plan aims to create 25 million jobs in the next 10 years.

The National Association of Manufacturers applauds Trump's plan to reduce taxes and regulations. It also supports his strategy to upgrade the quality of infrastructure. But it would prefer he create more free trade agreements.

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Patience and reciprocity on the last sentence.

LINK

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Every economics class will teach you the same basic things, and that is this protectionist policy is bad economics.

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Can't refute protectionism is bad economic policy but here's the caveat. The US Corporatocracy has made trillion dollar trade deals with other countries that practice protectionism, it gave our trading partners unfair advantages and it greatly diminished our industrial/manufacturing base. Trump's doing what he can to level the trade barriers but he's meeting strong resistance from the folks (Globalists) whose gravy train is potentially getting derailed. Finally we have a POTUS that's not having any more of it.