- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Oil approaching $60
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:15 pm to Road Tiger
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:15 pm to Road Tiger
quote:
All it takes is talk of a war in the Middle East for the price to jump back up and I don't think that the Arabs have been getting along as of lately.
You need more war than ISIS in Syria and Iraq? I think the paradigm has changed and people now know what threats are real and which aren't. You will need a legit threat to Arabian peninsula and Iranian production to move the needle IMV.
0
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:16 pm to NukemVol
quote:
This is disconnected from natural gas prices right? So there's still opportunity in North Dakota and elsewhere right?
A little but not a lot. NG is a substitute good for oil as oil's price rises. The farther above $100 (for example) oil goes, the more attractive NG research and use becomes.
Since we are far from that point right now, NG's biggest issue at the moment is that we're the Saudi Arabia of NG so we're finding these huge fields but the tech for NG to supplant oil as primary vehicle fuel isn't even close to where it needs to be yet. This means there's a glut on the market (which is why NG has stayed below $5 for almost 5 years now) and the current drop in oil is going to only increase that glut.
As oil continues to drop while Saudi plays "Who Has the Deepest Pockets", NG looks less attractive for things other than traditional home heating uses and so the price should settle into a seasonal ebb and flow depending on how cold the winter season gets and how long the cold lasts.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:17 pm to Scoop
quote:
This isn't my thing. Any veracity to the things I've heard about this oil crash being orchestrated by OPEC as a move to screw up the economics of fracking in the US?
It crash wasn't orchestrated....The Saudis didn't know this was going to happen but they've chosen not to cut production to support price and have instead chosen to cut price and protect market share.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:17 pm to TK421
quote:Not unless your "economy" is limited to the Dakotas.
is there a point at which the low price of oil could have a seriously negative impact on our economy?
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:21 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Some trends are too big for even Big Oil to affect.
Big oil controls I think less than 10% of the world's proven reserves....they can't meaningfully swing prices unless they stopped producing all together, which won't happen.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:21 pm to Road Tiger
quote:
Syria is not exactly a major player on the global oil market.
Iraqi production is under threat, too.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:23 pm to NukemVol
quote:
This is disconnected from natural gas prices right?
Mostly, yes.
quote:
So there's still opportunity in North Dakota and elsewhere right?
Not in the Bakken...but elsewhere...but natural gas prices were already very low.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:24 pm to wickowick
quote:
Demand isn't dropping
It stagnated in Asia and the EU and supply outstripped demand....that's why prices collapsed.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:24 pm to cwill
quote:
It crash wasn't orchestrated....The Saudis didn't know this was going to happen but they've chosen not to cut production to support price and have instead chosen to cut price and protect market share.
Yep. They've essentially decided to take less pain now than face a lingering crisis down the road like the 1980's. They kept cutting and cutting then until they had no choice but to raise production to protect revenues and thus the bust which ensued with a glut of oil on the market. Louisiana wise I think the price trends pretty much will force some people like GDP and HK into bankruptcy as the TMS is pretty much dead.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:24 pm to arcalades
quote:
Is OPEC "big oil"?
No.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:26 pm to cwill
Russian Prostitutes Hike Rates Over Slumping Ruble
quote:
The crime of buying sexual services is becoming more expensive in Russia as prostitutes increase their rates to offset the free-falling ruble, regional media reported.
An escort agency in the northern port of Murmansk has raised prices by 30 to 40 percent, news website Flashnord.com reported.
The pre-crisis price was 3,000 to 7,000 rubles ($55 to $130 at Thursday's rate) per two hours of "spending time with an agency employee," Flashnord said Tuesday.
The price will likely be pegged to the dollar in the future, the website said. Though prostitution is illegal in Russia, the report gave the name of the alleged brothel, Madlen.
A representative of another "escort salon" named World of Sex in Murmansk was cited as saying that the enterprise "is trying to keep prices as they were, but life's getting more expensive, and girls can't work at a loss."
In the Urals, sex workers have raised prices by between 50 and 100 percent, Uralpolit.ru said Wednesday, citing unnamed clients of prostitutes.
In addition to the falling ruble, the sex tariff inflation may have been boosted by an influx of sex workers fleeing war-torn Ukraine, the website said. The new competition is forcing local sex workers to hike their rates in order to pay their bills, the report said.
The ruble has lost almost 40 percent of its value against the dollar since the start of the year due to an economic downturn.
Sex workers make up about 1 million of Russia's 142 million population, Deputy Interior Minister Igor Zubov said last year.
Prostitution is punishable with a fine of up to 2,000 rubles ($37) in Russia. Pimps face up to a decade behind bars.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:26 pm to PillageUrVillage
quote:
Posted by PillageUrVillage on 12/10 at 1:38 pm to MrLSU I work in the drilling side of the oil field. We are actually hiring and business hasn't slowed down. Now, I don't pretend to know the future. But that is what's going on where I work. Reply • Options • Back to Top
I know operators who are already cutting their drilling program. We'll see what happens. There are operators who are hedged and can ride this out. I have also been in a lot of planning sessions and a slow down is on the way unless prices turn
This post was edited on 12/10/14 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:29 pm to Captain Rumbeard
quote:
With ISIS now becoming a serious threat to the region the Saudis need to make sure they are still important enough for us to come save them if they need it. If we become energy independent, we could tell them to kiss our asses and watch ISIS roll up and take Mecca and behead the royals. US energy independence is the death of them and they aren't going to allow it if they can help it.
Do you realize the impact on the western economy the loss of Saudi production would be? Losing about 9-10MM BBL/D? Oil and fuel prices would go through the roof around the globe. If ISIS threatens Saudi production we're going in full bore whether or not we are "energy independent" whatever the hell that even really means.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:30 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
I think ultimately the Saudis are trying to avoid the mistakes of the 1980's when they cut and ultimately had to return production to a huge market glut to maintain revenues. Although the dynamics are a little different (sources of oil and economic price) the market essentially is oversupplied. The swing barrels appear to be US shale oil, which of course requires much higher prices than the conventional deposits in the middle east. By allowing the market to rebalance and not making cuts the Saudi's are attempting to let all producers take the pain and the highest cost oil will fall out first until we rebalance. Where speculation drives that is anybody's guess for the time being but declines are much steeper on the shale wells. More oil today globally comes from higher cost deposits like deepwater, shale wells, and oil sands than in the 1980's or 1990's.
Solid theory.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:48 pm to cwill
TSLA has cratered along with shale.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 3:05 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Not unless your "economy" is limited to the Dakotas.
While there's certainly a lot of merit to what you're saying, I'm not totally sold on the idea that this is a net positive for the economy. I'm not an economist but I do follow this pretty closely at work. If the O&G market lingers here for an extended amount of time, credit markets are going to get absolutely pummeled next year, particularly in the HY debt space. That's bad news for everyone, particularly in a rising rate environment.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 3:18 pm to cwill
In this case "energy independent" means we don't have to import. (Not counting Canada here) We export. Yes losing the Saudi oil TODAY would be a crushing blow to the western economy. But if get up to where we start exporting, not nearly as bad. And we've got the oil to do it if we continue the fracking.
The question though is this. Is the House of Saud really necessary for that Arabian Peninsula oil to flow? I mean ISIS made sure that they were selling oil the next day when they took it before. They could play that card politically prior to popular uprising and we'd probably fart around till it was too late to save them.
The question though is this. Is the House of Saud really necessary for that Arabian Peninsula oil to flow? I mean ISIS made sure that they were selling oil the next day when they took it before. They could play that card politically prior to popular uprising and we'd probably fart around till it was too late to save them.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 3:28 pm to Captain Rumbeard
quote:
In this case "energy independent" means we don't have to import. (Not counting Canada here) We export. Yes losing the Saudi oil TODAY would be a crushing blow to the western economy. But if get up to where we start exporting, not nearly as bad. And we've got the oil to do it if we continue the fracking.
We are part of a global economy. If 9-10MM bbl/d go offline there isn't enough shale in America to offset that loss. The price of oil for everyone in the world as well as the "energy independent" US will go through the roof.
quote:
The question though is this. Is the House of Saud really necessary for that Arabian Peninsula oil to flow? I mean ISIS made sure that they were selling oil the next day when they took it before. They could play that card politically prior to popular uprising and we'd probably fart around till it was too late to save them.
ISIS was selling piddling amounts of oil in a very regional black market. No affect on pricing. They also lack any expertise to keep the production up and running. Aramco has mostly western technical professionals running the business. So let's say ISIS takes the fields...do you think well before that time the technical folks flee? How are they going to keep the oil flowing? They're already in secondary recovery in Ghawar running a water flood. Do you think ISIS can handle that? ISIS taking the Peninsula would be catastrophic to the world economy and more specifically to our economy. "Energy independence" is meaningless in this regard.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 3:51 pm to Scoop
quote:
Any veracity to the things I've heard about this oil crash being orchestrated by OPEC as a move to screw up the economics of fracking in the US?
I went to a talk on Monday night by some guys that run a hedge fund and they believe the drop in prices is due more to Libya coming back online plus a desire to frick over russia and ISIS than it was a conspiracy to screw over domestic oil.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 3:55 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:"Peak Oil"
Page 3 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News