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Message
re: Ohio special election: tonight's results
Posted on 8/8/18 at 6:50 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 8/8/18 at 6:50 am to hawgfaninc
quote:
I bet the Dem wins, it is the same playbook they use when they need to win seats. They run a guy out there that is a Moderate Democrat, says all the right things about religion, military, LEOs etc. The sumbitch will win and then vote right along with Nancy Pelosi and Elijah Cummings. Then 6 years later he will lose his arse in a re-election bid.
a quality losing bet
He’s right though, that’s the playbook. They fricking lie through their teeth to fool the voters and every damn vote in office is blue.
1
Posted on 8/8/18 at 7:31 am to t00f
quote:
Then 6 years later he will lose his arse in a re-election bid.
It's only two years for a Congressman. Remember Don Cazayoux who won Richard Baker's vacant, solidly Republican, seat a while back? He took a page from that playbook and was two-and-through.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 7:45 am to Tchefuncte Tiger
Sounds like Governor Honor Code
Posted on 8/8/18 at 8:27 am to Northwestern tiger
IMO, both sides make too much out of these special elections. At best, they are imperfect indicators of possible trends.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 8:39 am to VOR
Local radio said its too close to call this morning. im confused.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 8:51 am to saints5021
quote:
Sounds like Governor Honor Code
We're stuck with him until 2024.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 9:46 am to VOR
quote:
At best, they are imperfect indicators of possible trends.
They absolutely are, and both sides are reading last night as a win.
I do think last night should give Rs pause, as Balderson should have crushed O'Connor.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 9:52 am to brian_wilson
quote:
I do think last night should give Rs pause, as Balderson should have crushed O'Connor.
Bragging about coming in second place in a prizefight means only one thing.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 9:57 am to brian_wilson
The index is only a R +7, that's not a seat you crush anyone unless you're an entrenched incumbent like Pat Tiberi was.
Tiberi and Kasich had Franklin County ties which helped the tremendously since the rurals are gonna vote R no matter what.
O'Connor won county wide office in Franklin County, and ran many TV ads saying he would WORK WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP TO PASS HIS AGENDA. Balderson was a state senator from a outside rural area on the edge of the new district.
There's not much that can be gleaned from last night aside from there won't be a massive blue wave, and Democrats are crazy energized and will turnout.
Tiberi and Kasich had Franklin County ties which helped the tremendously since the rurals are gonna vote R no matter what.
O'Connor won county wide office in Franklin County, and ran many TV ads saying he would WORK WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP TO PASS HIS AGENDA. Balderson was a state senator from a outside rural area on the edge of the new district.
There's not much that can be gleaned from last night aside from there won't be a massive blue wave, and Democrats are crazy energized and will turnout.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 10:15 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
There's not much that can be gleaned from last night aside from there won't be a massive blue wave, and Democrats are crazy energized and will turnout.
that doesn't really make sense tbh. If democrats turn out, they are going to do really well.
* OH12 hasn't gone D since 1980. This is a race the Rs should have won by high single digits, to low double digits, which to me is "crushing"
* OH12 is R+7, if Rs have to pull out all the stops to win that district, then they are going to probably bail on closer districts like CO-6.
* O'Connor message of working with trump, and not voting for Pelosi is about the easiest thing in the world to copy in swing districts
Posted on 8/8/18 at 10:33 am to brian_wilson
quote:
* O'Connor message of working with trump, and not voting for Pelosi is about the easiest thing in the world to copy in swing districts
i.e., a carrot on a stick. Anyone that is not a novice to politics doesn't believe that statement for one second.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 10:38 am to brian_wilson
quote:
O'Connor message of working with trump, and not voting for Pelosi is about the easiest thing in the world to copy in swing districts
He was pinned down at the end of the race and admitted he would VOTE FOR Pelosi.
Posted on 8/8/18 at 10:41 am to brian_wilson
quote:
that doesn't really make sense tbh. If democrats turn out, they are going to do really well.
Crazy far left Democrats are going to turn out. Hopefully there won't be an overwhelming number of them.
And more Rs will not in OH-12 in November and it won't be as close. Probably R+5 or 6.
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