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Started By
Message
Often-touted Atlanta Fed GDPNow projection has some bad news for 3Q
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:49 pm
quote:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 15, down from 3.0 percent on September 8. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's report on industrial production and capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Down from as high as 4.0% last month. LINK
This post was edited on 9/15/17 at 3:51 pm
15
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:52 pm to 90proofprofessional
Hurricane effect
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:52 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Often-touted Atlanta Fed
By whom?
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:54 pm to 90proofprofessional
Hopefully we can beat the forecast.
Congress could help too if they would pass tax cuts.
Congress could help too if they would pass tax cuts.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:56 pm to TheXman
quote:
By whom?
I've seen it enthusiastically posted here by posters who don't typically follow updates to items like this. Followed by giving all thanks and praise the Pres. When the projection was much higher, obviously.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:57 pm to 90proofprofessional
How does a prediction go from 4% to 2.2% in a month?
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:57 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
I've seen it enthusiastically posted here by posters who don't typically follow updates to items like this. Followed by giving all thanks and praise the Pres. When the projection was much higher, obviously.
I posted it once.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:58 pm to cahoots
quote:
How does a prediction go from 4% to 2.2% in a month?
Two hurricanes in very populated areas of the nation.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 3:58 pm to cahoots
disappointing industrial production & capacity utilization numbers, apparently
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:02 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Two hurricanes in very populated areas of the nation.
they only impacted a third of the quarter, and it's not like they came close to wiping out all activity nationwide even during the period they impacted
not remotely possible they account for a drop by nearly half from 4%
good effort though!
This post was edited on 9/15/17 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:03 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Two hurricanes in very populated areas of the nation.
Oh please. Two hurricanes aren't going to cut growth in half. Especially when government recovery spending on the order of $15 billion (and then some) is a component of GDP. There were weaknesses elsewhere before the storms hit.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:08 pm to cahoots
quote:Well the current drop from 3% is related to this:
How does a prediction go from 4% to 2.2% in a month?
quote:
The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 1.4 percen
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:14 pm to GumboPot
quote:Florida and Texas account for 14% of the nation's GDP. And those Hurricanes didn't shut down the entire areas impacted let alone the entire states. And those Hurricanes occured 2/3rds of the way through the quarter.
Two hurricanes in very populated areas of the nation.
In other words, whatever impact it had, it would be only a small percentage.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:16 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And those Hurricanes didn't shut down the entire areas impacted
This is how I know you aren't in Florida or Texas.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:17 pm to buckeye_vol
this news and some accompanying high-quality analysis does not seem appreciated, buckeye
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:23 pm to 90proofprofessional
2.5% growth would be fine. 4% seemed to always be an outlier estimate wise.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 4:25 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
2.5% growth would be fine.
but that would put trump's economy in obama territory!
Posted on 9/15/17 at 5:01 pm to roadGator
quote:Did all economic activities stop? Do people no longer have to pay bills? Did government cease to exist? Did hospitals stop treating patients? Did those who evacuated from the area stop spending money on food, gas, and lodging? Did those who got supplies for the Hurricane, not spend their money on those supplies? Did the media broadcast for free? Were my Facebook friends in Houston, who didn't get flooded, not have to pay for the internet and phones they were using to update people? Were Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO, HULU, etc. Subscriptions cesse to exist or cost anything? Did those who had to cancel their vacations not spend any of that money elsewhere?
This is how I know you aren't in Florida or Texas.
And remember these seasonally adjusted figures. So this may have an impact WAY above the seasonal factors, but some of it would likely be accounted for.
But when if all economic activitiy in the entire state ceased to stop for the final month of the quarter, it would still only be 5% of the economy. And of course, places like Dallas-Fort Worth didn't shut down, so it's far less than 5%.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 5:05 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Often-touted Atlanta Fed GDPNow projection has some bad news for 3Q
Go away you rabble rousing Dim Drone! People like you will be extremely miserable politically if Trump is a better than average POTUS and the economy booms, let's hope that's the case.
Posted on 9/15/17 at 5:40 pm to Bass Tiger
translation:
SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP
SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP
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