re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Who is Trump going to negotiate with when there is no leader calling the shots?

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Egypt has issued a warning over what it describes as “free concessions” being offered by Lebanon to Israel, expressing clear "surprise" at the direction of the negotiations.

For years, I have argued that Egypt is among the most deceitful, unreliable and unprincipled actors in the Arab world.

At a time when President Trump’s administration is pushing to expand peace between Israel and its neighbours, Egypt appears to be actively undermining those efforts.

If Cairo had genuine concerns, it could have addressed them privately with Lebanese officials. Instead, it has chosen to criticise both the Lebanese government and the negotiations in public—an approach that risks derailing progress while inadvertently boosting Hezbollah’s standing as the representative of Lebanese "patriotism" across the region.

Egypt has long played a role in sustaining Hamas, and there are signs it is now enabling similar dynamics with Hezbollah. The underlying logic is clear: Cairo believes keeping Israel entangled in multiple conflicts serves Egypt’s national interests.

I intend to submit a detailed report to President Trump’s administration outlining Egypt’s efforts to obstruct negotiations aimed at advancing his broader regional peace vision, including the Abraham Accords.

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First observation: there will be no deal. The ceasefire will end & the war will re-commence.

Second observation: the US has been flooding the Theater with reinforcements, resupplies & performing maintenance on air assets non-stop, & re-arming warships. The force is ready & its larger than its ever been.

Third observation: every key player left in the regime surfaced from their hide holes & safe houses during this ceasefire. The regime ‘negotiation’ team sent to stall America. The IRGC thugs who showed up in Islamabad to stop the Iranian Regime delegation from making any deals. The midlevel staffers going between the IRGC thug leadership & the IRGC cannon fodder still shooting at ships.

All of them broke cover & came back up on the grid. From that point on, they were visible to the human intelligence networks watching them, the persistent ISR assets watching 24 hours a day, 7 days a week without pause— spy satellites, stealth & non stealth drones, manned reconnaissance aircraft. From the moment this ceasefire started, everyone who is a key player in Iran’s continued resistance came back on the grid & have been surveilled ever since.

The intelligence mosaic is fully fleshed out & these targets are being tracked in real time, and the strike plans created with the help of AI are already set & planned.

When the ceasefire ends, the strikes will be begin with such rapid speed, & precision it will be much more savage & fearsome than the first round.

Fourth observation: Iran received drones, SAM missile systems & radars & intelligence from China during this ceasefire & this is still ongoing. This is what’s driving the remnants of the IRGC to continue the war. They do not fully comprehend what is set to take place, or how completely unable to counter it or survive it they are. That’s partly due to history, partly due to institutional arrogance of IRGC, & partly & most importantly because China & Russia simply do not understand our full capabilities— in terms of intelligence collection, planning, speed we can act on those things, & how good our situational awareness of the battlefield is.

That last one is the key: the disconnect— how clear & complete our granular picture all the way up to the grand strategic picture is, compared to how blinded & how fragmented the situational awareness of the Iranians is.

That last part is what really, really scares Russia & China— the vast gap in cognitive capabilities & situational awareness capabilites between the US & them scares them because its a gap they cant bridge, & beyond that the speed we can act on that clear picture is something they cant match.

This war is going to restart after the ceasefire ends, & all hell is going to break loose— & the ferocity of what comes next is going to genuinely surprise the IRGC fanatics driving events in this direction.

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Important to notice: Men in suits in Iran are not in control. IRGC is, and I think the message is clear. Vahidi is the IRGC chief. He calls the shots

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Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told The Associated Press on Saturday that no enriched material will be sent to the United States. He said the issue is “not up for discussion.”

Khatibzadeh added that messages have been exchanged between Tehran and Washington, but the sides are still not at the stage of holding direct talks.

"New guidelines for the Strait of Hormuz will be set as part of the negotiations, and the waterway will remain open and safe for all civilian traffic," he said.

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