re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Do they not have some sort of signed agreements outlining what they are agreeing to?

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If its not in ink it doesn't exist....

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If its not in ink it doesn't exist....

Docusign.

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I do not want to sell false hope. I just want to lay out the puzzle pieces the way they look from here.

I do not think this ceasefire is a ceasefire. I think it is a Trojan horse.

Trump spent Monday, more than once and in different ways, talking about Iranians fearing the bombing would stop and they would be abandoned with the regime. Nobody dragged that out of him. He volunteered it. Then before any ceasefire even existed, he said that if one happened, Iranians should come to the streets. Then he suddenly started talking about weapons meant for Iranians that were stolen. Maybe true, maybe not. But none of that sounds random.

Then look at the board. Right in the middle of the deadline drama, while Trump was threatening infrastructure, the Crown Prince called on the military. In the last 24 hours before the pause, bridges, rail lines, roads, oil, and power nodes were hit. That did not look like punishment for punishment’s sake. It looked like shaping the board, slowing transfers, choking movement, and complicating the regime’s ability to move suppression forces.

Now Ghalibaf is publicly saying even their own so called workable 10 point framework was violated before talks began, Lebanon, a drone over Lar in Fars, and Iran’s claimed right to enrichment. That tells me Tehran itself did not read this as a clean peace landing. It read it as a contested pause before the next fight.

And the core issue is still sitting there. The 440 kilos of uranium enriched to 60 percent are still part of the story, still enough in principle to become bombs if pushed further.
So what exactly is “resolved” here.

And please spare me the fantasy of a new regime. What fricking new regime. The four main names have not changed. Khamenei became Khamenei Junior, and the rest are still the same bastards as before, Pezeshkian, Qalibaf, Ejei.

Then there is the rescue mission, 48 hours of activity deep inside Iran, deception, jamming, roads hit, aircraft destroyed. And the assassination pattern. Trump pushed the line that around 50 high level figures were gone. Public names are already out there, but I would bet a large part of the real list is still being held back.

So no, I do not think this means the war is over. I think it means a lot is happening behind the curtain. This pause serves Washington and Jerusalem more than it serves the terrorist Islamic Regime occupying Iran, buys time, steadies markets, preserves escalation control, and prepares the next phase.

Payandeh Iran
Javid Shah

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