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Started By
Message
re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:53 am to Ailsa
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:53 am to Ailsa
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Pretty much all media and political commentary regarding the Iranian mullahs leaves out the very important fact that they are all “Twelver Shias” and deeply devoted to the idea that someone known as the Twelfth Imam will arise from a well in Qom, Iran to precipitate the Apocalypse and convert the entire world (what is left of it) to Islam.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the mullahs’ likely purpose in trying to obtain nuclear weapons was to use them aggressively in order to precipitate the Twelfth Imam’s appearance, starting with the Great Satan and the Little Satan as their targets.
This was not like North Korea getting nukes, which, despite how crazy that country is, was an act of rational self-preservation for a diabolical regime. Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons for rational reasons.
Everything about Trump’s actions must be understood in this context.
It is quite possible that Donald Trump just saved humanity.
(Scoff all you want, but before you scoff, study up on the Twelver mullahs and the fanatical nature of their beliefs.)
0
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:54 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
squashing
While “squashing” is a legitimate word to describe this, I think you actually meant to say the legal term “quash”.
It’s a pet peeve of mine.
This post was edited on 4/8/26 at 9:55 am
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:55 am to Trevaylin
quote:
At 8 pm est, bridges in Iran may be blown up to discourage non compliance with the cease fire agreement.
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Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:56 am to UptownJoeBrown
But he gave orders to quit firing guys 
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Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:56 am to UptownJoeBrown
Sorry
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:56 am to Ailsa
Trump didn’t want to be the bad guy so he agreed to a deal that was never real but would reveal Iran as a bad actor. We’re going back in hard IMO.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:57 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
Sorry
It’s OK. Lots of people do it. Even a lot lawyers.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:58 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:59 am to BayouBengal51
Yeaaaa, this won't take much longer to cook off again.
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Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:59 am to beaverfever
quote:
Trump didn’t want to be the bad guy so he agreed to a deal that was never real but would reveal Iran as a bad actor. We’re going back in hard IMO.
Intergalactic 12D transhuman chess
Posted on 4/8/26 at 9:59 am to BayouBengal51
Yeah it’s closed already. Not sure why markets aren’t tanking yet. It’s about to get real.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:01 am to BayouBengal51
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Arab countries fear sanctions on Iran could soon be lifted and that Tehran may begin collecting fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported, citing a diplomat.
The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes talks among Arab states, said countries astride the Persian Gulf were concerned any deal may not take their security interests into account, particularly regarding access to the strategic waterway.
The diplomat added that these states had not been invited to participate in ceasefire negotiations despite the talks affecting what he described as “the core of our security.”
This post was edited on 4/8/26 at 10:02 am
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:01 am to beaverfever
quote:
Yeah it’s closed already. Not sure why markets aren’t tanking yet. It’s about to get real.
Sell calls on stocks.
Sell puts on oil.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:02 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:02 am to beaverfever
quote:
Yeah it’s closed already. Not sure why markets aren’t tanking yet. It’s about to get real.
It was already "real". Israel did this shite last time during the first ceasefire last June. Israel will stop and says oopsy.
Iran was the first to break the ceasefire and bomb israel to be fair.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:03 am to BayouBengal51
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Several vessels in the Persian Gulf have received messages claiming to be from Iran’s navy saying the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Reuters reported, citing shipping sources.
The message said ship owners need to receive permission from Iran to transit and warned that vessels failing to comply would be “targeted and destroyed,” according to the report.
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:03 am to beaverfever
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But most people lost their minds over Trump's recent comments and post. And that's because they lack a negotiation filter to make sense of him.
Trump has been aggressively scope-setting--establishing a ceiling so high and gruesome that everything below it would eventually look like a reasonable outcome.
I would even argue that this ceasefire wouldn’t have seemed reasonable at all had we not have had Trump’s Easter post. Think about it.
Imagine Trump never having threatened to blow Iran off the map, and the world spending 48 hours ruminating about it.
A ceasefire would’ve seemed mediocre. Not anymore.
It feels like Trump stopped WWIII. He put the image in everyone’s head that Iran was going to get sent back to the stone age. That didn’t happen, so a ceasefire and more negotiations seem like such a big win.
And here’s another move that nobody is talking about. Each time Trump extended a deadline (and he extended four of them) he wasn’t just buying time. He was letting the architecture get bigger.
Deadline one: US-Iran bilateral. Reopen the strait or face strikes.
Deadline two: Pakistan enters the channel. The conversation is no longer two parties; it’s three.
Deadline three: Pakistan hosts Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in Islamabad. Now it’s a regional table.
Deadline four: the “Islamabad Accord” framework--a named document with regional backing and two phases.
By the time tonight arrived, Trump hadn’t just been negotiating with Iran. He’d been building a coalition of every major regional stakeholder around a shared interest in the outcome.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have wanted Iran contained for decades. Egypt and Turkey wanted regional stability and a seat at the table. Pakistan wanted the credibility of brokering a historic deal.
In tonight’s post, Trump did something extraordinary: he announced the ceasefire “on behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East.”
He’s not brokering a US-Iran deal anymore. What he's doing is positioning himself as the representative of a regional coalition--Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan--all behind the framework that’s now being finalized.
The permanent deal, when it comes, won’t be Trump versus Iran. It’ll be Iran versus a bloc that includes every major power in the region, with Trump holding the pen.
Again, Trump went from a Strait of Hormuz negotiation to a Middle East security architecture. A week ago this didn’t seem possible. Even a few days ago it didn’t seem possible. And yet here we are.
Trump kept the ceiling high enough that the deal had room to grow into something much larger than where it started.
Trump is on an all-time run.
This post was edited on 4/8/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:03 am to TigerMan327
quote:
Iran was the first to break the ceasefire and bomb israel to be fair.
All is fair in love and war and there is no love around there.
This post was edited on 4/8/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 4/8/26 at 10:04 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
the IRGC is still in control of the country and its actively patrolling the streets of Tehram and violently squashing any form of resistance
quote:
But to act like we've teed this up for them and all they have to do is just rise up and take it is just funny. Cause we didnt even come close to doing so
Well, you obviously have some strong opinions about that, but I'd submit that you may be wrong. I'd also submit that the administration probably has a better idea than you about the feasibility of that happening. And they never said it would be "teed up" for the Iranian people.
Iran is a large country and transportation to and from Tehran has been damaged. There's a population of 90 million people, including some regular army, many of whom don't support the Islamic regime. An IRCG army of maybe a couple hundred thousand, fragmented with a large loss of senior leadership, morale issues and supply issues, is not the well-oiled machine it once was. Regime change won't happen overnight, but it'll be hard to maintain control in those conditions, no matter how much brutality the IRCG intends to use in the attempt.
This post was edited on 4/8/26 at 10:26 am
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