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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:29 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:29 pm to hawgfaninc
I was speculating to my wife earlier that those 2200 marines sent today could be heading to Israel actually to help them finally once and for all finish Hezbollah.
I doubt they are but hmmmmm
I doubt they are but hmmmmm
0
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:33 pm to Bronco11
2500 marines are about be put on the ground to secure the straight of Hormuz. God speed to them.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:33 pm to hawgfaninc
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This post was edited on 3/13/26 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:37 pm to hawgfaninc
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This means Washington wants the coastline in the argument.
That is the signal.
A MEU is a force package built to make littoral seizure believable. Once it moves toward Hormuz, the message changes. Iran is no longer being told only that its ships, missiles, and mine layers can be struck. Iran is being told that the shore itself can become vulnerable.
That matters because the war has reached the point where the real problem is whether the artery can be made usable again. A Marine unit puts one answer on the table:
if you keep making the water ungovernable, we can bring the fight to the strip of land that makes it ungovernable.
That is the move.
This does not mean a landing is already decided. It means the threat of one is now being made operationally credible. Washington wants Iran thinking about raids, coastal suppression, island seizures, interdictions, and forced opening operations. The objective is psychological before it is territorial. Make the coast feel exposed enough that Iran recalculates before the United States has to pay the price of actually taking ground.
That is the deep read.
The whole campaign has been built on controlled escalation. Hit Kharg but spare the oil heart. Threaten the grid but do not erase it. Move forces that can land without yet crossing into occupation. The logic is consistent. Keep raising the shadow of the next rung. Force compliance before the rung is climbed.
So what is really happening?
Washington is trying to move the bargaining line from the water to the shore.
That is a big shift.
Once the shoreline enters the coercive equation, Iran has to ask a different question. The question is no longer only how long it can keep Hormuz dangerous. The question becomes how much coastal pain it is willing to absorb to do it.
That is why this deployment matters.
The cold compression is this:
They want Iran to believe the coast is now part of the battlefield.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:37 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:40 pm to ItTakesAThief
quote:
We gonna put artillery on the islands located in the strait to defend the strait?
Not close enough to the strait.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:40 pm to hawgfaninc
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Possible signs of cracks inside the regime emerging in Tehran.
Several armed patrols carrying G3 battle rifles, weapons typically used by Iran’s regular army, were reportedly seen moving through the city in civilian vehicles. That combination is highly unusual.
Some activists say people are raiding police stations after they are hit by strikes to seize weapons before reinforcements arrive.
If true, it could point to weapons slipping out of regime control or defections within the security forces, early signs that the regime’s grip may be weakening.
quote:
"Several patrols armed with G3 rifles and using personal vehicles have been observed across Tehran."
The G3 is mainly used by the regular army. The IRGC and Basij typically use Kalashnikovs in Iran. It is unusual for regular army forces to use personal vehicles. Could these be signs of defections? Or opposition groups that have seized weapons?
One activist told me a few days ago that they immediately head to targeted police stations to steal weapons before security forces arrive.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:40 pm to hawgfaninc
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Kharg Island is now militarily neutralised—but its critical oil infrastructure is implicitly intact—and, with the Iranian navy and air force gone, there is little, if anything, to deter a US invasion. It would be justified by the claim that many of the oil facilities—which handle more than 90% of Iranian exports—were stolen by the IRGC from American corporations in 1979. With Kharg under US control, the IRGC would be completely broke.
The US would be able to mediate the sale of the oil contingent on the regime’s good behaviour, as in Venezuela, but realistically that will not happen, and economic crisis will ensue. The US could camp out there in relative safety—though drones and missiles from the mainland would remain a risk—overfly Iran to protect civilians, and wait.
If so, the war would shift into a low-tempo stage, perhaps even with Trump declaring some kind of victory, and then waiting and watching to see how a defunded IRGC, with enemy drones overhead, managed to control the population.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:46 pm to hawgfaninc
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I am inclined to agree that it looks like we'll be taking Kharg in the near future, but I should clarify for folks that this island does not exert control over the Strait of Hormuz whatsoever. Totally unrelated real estate.
Kharg is a pretty small island way up into the Gulf used by Iran as its primary oil export terminal, accounting for 90% of Iran's oil exports. The reason it is so used is primarily due to depth of water.
Iran's coastline is shallow, silty, and doesn't make for very good ports—if you look closely, you'll notice they have fairly few for having such a large coastline. Its also closer to the Ahvaz and Marun oil fields, which account for a majority of Iran's oil production.
If you control this island, you control the bazaar merchants. I'll link my previous threads on their relevance in the comments.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:48 pm to hawgfaninc
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Signals indicate the Regime Change phase of the 2026 Gulf War is about to begin.
The Velayat-e Faqih is built on three pillars: clerical legitimacy, bazaar merchant wealth, and a robust and redundant security apparatus.
The clerical legitimacy was already in serious question due to the numerous waves of protests over the years and especially this last wave.
The opening salvo of Epic Fury was a decapitation strike on the clerical establishment. There is a decent chance that Mojtaba Khamenei is incapacitated such that he doesn't even know that he is the Supreme Leader. This pillar is extremely weak.
The disruption of Iranian oil flow and the bombing of stored oil in Iran was a "shot across the bow," so to speak, on the bazaar merchants. They'll be spared if they cooperate with what comes—and this is important because they will have some of the most important functions in the future of Iran. This pillar will lean whichever way the wind blows.
The final pillar is the security apparatus.
Remember: Iran has two parallel militaries—Artesh (Regular Army) and Sepah (IRGC). Under the IRGC is a subsidiary of sorts called the Basij—a gendarmerie / national guard / police force entity.
The Basij are the primary branch that puts down protests and uprisings. All indications (that aren't obvious enemy propaganda) are that the IRGC and Artesh's war-making ability has been at least 92% degraded (objectively measurable by the rate of ballistic missiles launched). Both Artesh and Sepah Air Forces and Navies have been destroyed. All they have left are ground forces and *maybe* some mines that were already laid in the Strait.
Monday, the IDF launched a series of sorties on Tehran apparently targeting Basij muster points, equipment depots, and C2 nodes. With Iran's ability to fight back effectively neutralized, the war now shifts to lifting the boot off of the Persian neck and putting the initiative into their hands.
The exact course of events over the next week are going to be critical for the future of Iran.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:50 pm to hawgfaninc
This was always the beginning of the end. Every despot, king and emperor in history knew that when you couldn't pay the guard, your days were numbered.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:50 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:52 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:54 pm to hawgfaninc
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Hezbollah's leader dares Netanyahu to come get him
Naim Qassem responded to Israeli assassination threats with a shrug:
"Your threat means nothing....
They say when 80 years pass, the Israeli kingdom will collapse. Now it's been 78.
Maybe they have two years left."
Qassem says Hezbollah is prepared for a long war and warned Israel would "be surprised on the battlefield."
Netanyahu tends to respond to that kind of invitation with a guided munition.
Source: @LBCI_News_EN @upholdreality
Posted on 3/13/26 at 7:55 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 8:06 pm to hawgfaninc
Maid must have had the day off.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 8:12 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 3/13/26 at 8:14 pm to hawgfaninc
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The strike on Kharg revealed the actual strategy. Every military defense on the island was destroyed while the oil infrastructure was deliberately preserved. That distinction matters. This is not about destruction. It is about control.
Kharg handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. Whoever controls that island controls the regime’s primary revenue stream. Destroying the terminals would remove barrels from global markets and eliminate the leverage that infrastructure provides. Securing them does the opposite. It preserves the export system while cutting the regime off from the cash that funds the IRGC, the missile programs, and the regional proxy network.
Control also prevents another strategic outcome that has been unfolding quietly for years: China’s access to heavily discounted Iranian oil.
Beijing has been buying sanctioned Iranian crude outside the Western financial system at steep discounts. Those flows helped fuel China’s attempt to build parallel settlement systems and gradually weaken dollar dominance in global energy trade. If Kharg operates under coalition control, that channel disappears overnight. The regime loses its revenue stream and China loses subsidized sanction evasion oil that supported its alternative currency ambitions.
More importantly, a secured Kharg Island opens the door to a long term stabilization framework.
Instead of destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure, the facilities can operate under coalition or international supervision where revenue is escrowed rather than flowing directly to the regime. Those funds could compensate the United States, Israel, and allied nations for war damages while preserving Iran’s productive capacity for a future post regime government.
In that framework the island becomes something very different from a hostage.
It becomes a financial choke point and a stabilization mechanism.
The regime loses the ability to fund aggression. China loses discounted sanction busting crude. The global oil system keeps functioning. And the infrastructure remains intact for the day Iran is reorganized into a normal state accountable to its own people.
Destroying Kharg removes leverage.
Controlling Kharg turns the regime’s own economic lifeline into the instrument that forces its end.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 8:14 pm to hawgfaninc
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If there is anything we have learned over the last 12 months:
President Trump makes tons of major market-moving decisions on Friday nights, just hours after markets are closed.
Between June 2025 airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, the October 10th "100% China tariff" threat, closure of Venezuela's airspace, February 28th strikes on Iran, and now the targeting of Khrag Island, it has become a clear part of President Trump's strategy.
Trump will look to apply more pressure this weekend before markets open.
He has 45 hours until futures open.
quote:
What just happened to Iran's Kharg Island?
President Trump just said the US has carried out the "most powerful bombing raids in Middle East history" on Kharg island.
This is a MAJOR escalation for oil markets. Here's why:
Kharg Island has been described as the "crown jewel" of Iran's oil industry. It is a vital, tiny island in the northern Persian Gulf that manages ~90% of Iran's crude oil exports.
Kharg Island alone handles ~2% of global oil supply.
In the lead up to the war, Iran was exporting as much as 3 MILLION barrels of oil per day from Kharg Island. Trump said that the US military has "chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island" for now.
However, President Trump also said he will reconsider this decision should Iran "do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz," which Iran is clearly doing right now.
In other words, President Trump appears to be paving the path for the destruction of oil infrastructure on one of the world's most crucial oil ports and islands.
It's no coincidence this came just 2 hours after markets closed for the weekend.
Buckle up for a busy weekend ahead.
Posted on 3/13/26 at 8:20 pm to Ailsa
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Let me shatter another Western illusion about what is happening here in Tehran.
The store shelves are not empty. The pharmacies have medicine, and the markets have food.
The regime hasn't starved us of supplies
they have starved us of the ability to buy them.
Everything is available, but all business has completely flatlined. People cannot find paying jobs to sustain themselves.
Aside from a few highly dangerous delivery gigs, the work is entirely gone, and the money has dried up with it.
Even the internet is out there in the shadows, but only if you are desperate enough to pay black-market blood money, praying you don't get robbed of your last dollar just to connect to the outside world for a single hour.
I need the West to hear this loud and clear: my family and I are not terrified of the war.
Not even a fraction. Watching the airstrikes dismantle our occupiers in real-time is the most euphoric experience of my entire 28 years on this earth.
You want to know our actual nightmare? It is not the bombs. It is the poverty. It is the sheer, suffocating terror of wondering if our empty bank accounts can outlast the regime.
We are days away from Nowruz, our New Year. You, sitting in absolute safety, cannot begin to fathom the psychological torture crushing Iranian fathers, mothers, and breadwinners right now.
They are breaking under the weight of not being able to afford a single meal or this month's rent.
Even those of us who can still barely scrape by are mentally haunted by the thought of our compatriots who have absolutely nothing left.
We are living in a brutal, maddening paradox.
Watching our butchers burn is pure joy, but the financial strangulation is tearing us apart from the inside. I just want to hit fast-forward through this agony and finally wake up in a free homeland.
Payande Iran. Javid Shah
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