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re: Official Midterms 2018 Thread

Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:39 pm to
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
86131 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:39 pm to
FNC better get to work before 2020

They're fricking awful
Posted by rpg37
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Sep 2008
53896 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

Ok.. but did you remember when Clinton was winning at this time 2 years ago? Trump somehow got votes in at the last minute and won. RED has been leading Florida most of tonight


I mean I hope it goes Red, but I can only go off the data they are showing. The Dems are winning those major FL counties 60-70% a pop. With so much more vote, I was just doing the math.
Posted by rpg37
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Sep 2008
53896 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

FNC better get to work before 2020


I hate CNN, but their interactive maps and this guy, King, are terrific!
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22628 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:41 pm to
FL Gov: 51% reporting for Broward, but they're major precincts.

This post was edited on 11/6/18 at 7:43 pm
Posted by RattyBlowfish
Member since Sep 2014
2947 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:41 pm to
Jacksonville FL at 98% of their votes
Tampa FL at 90%
Orlando at 93%
Tallahassee at 89%
Miami-Dade at 80%
This post was edited on 11/6/18 at 7:43 pm
Posted by HCN109
Member since Dec 2017
201 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:41 pm to
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6037 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.


Nate Silver of 538 is literally changing his live projection model because he doesn't think it's fair because R's are winning too much.



Twitter
Posted by rpg37
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Sep 2008
53896 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

FL Gov: 51% reporting for Broward, but they're major precincts.


They've been at 51% for a long time
Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
10012 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

I wish the NYT house/senate forecasts would get started.


Right? Not sure wtf they're waiting for.


Finally 538 offered an explanation why their "chances for the house" probability is all over the place. Apparently, in terms of toss ups, they had a bunch of "likely republican" races all go red before any "likely democrat" races closed....they're saying the model overreacted to these results. In other words, it's a fricking useless tool.
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24838 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:43 pm to
Sorry if already posted. From 1 in 9 chance to win to 1 in 2 to win house in a matter of minutes!
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22628 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:44 pm to
Betting odds: 2/1 Desantis
Posted by RammerJammer91
Member since Jan 2016
5646 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:44 pm to
With Marion (Indianapolis) already at 55% in, you'd think they'd have to call Indiana for Braun soon, right?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42049 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:45 pm to
That's old, this is current

Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
20457 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:45 pm to
Barr gets the call

Sorry Dems. You night is going to suck.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43225 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:45 pm to
Election results
Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
50.9% Andy Barr* GOP 140,178 ?
47.9% Amy McGrath Dem 132,061
1.2% Other 3,410
93.6% of precincts reporting (587/627)
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
19163 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:46 pm to
Nate's AI has become self aware and is MAGA as frick
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
63402 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:46 pm to
quote:




Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
45186 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:46 pm to
In Bermuda at a dinner. No real time election info. $500 bet Rs keep the house straight up or down. Take the bet or no?
Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
34930 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:46 pm to
finally looking like DeSantis may actually win FL. This is so, so important for the 2020 Trump campaign, and could very well make the difference for him.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
171955 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 7:47 pm to
Oh look, rural counties are reporting now and Cruz is up now.

Bunch of pussies here tonight.
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