re: New homes for sale highest since October 2007, completed & unsold also highest since 07

There's also ~40 million more people in the US than in 2007. Stats like this are dumb.

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Then there should be zero reason to have this much extra inventory

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Whats the total amount? Isnt it less than a 1mil?

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Then there should be zero reason to have this much extra inventory

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What is "extra" inventory?

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I had a new roof put on last fall and I'm waiting for my assessment to go up by some ridiculous number.

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Every house has a roof. A new roof doesn't add dollar for dollar increase in appraisal.

I like how every time you know my point, but can't refute it, you respond in this manner. You know exactly what the OP is pointing out. Builders are stuck with inventory and it is increasing.

Existing home inventory is rising too.

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I like how every time you know my point, but can't refute it, you respond in this manner. You know exactly what the OP is pointing out. Builders are stuck with inventory and it is increasing.

Existing home inventory is rising too.

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Nah. You are making a claim with extremely mush language. "Extra inventory" is not a defined thing.

Why can't you say something like "most people think an 'even' market for this type of product is x units or y months of inventory" so we can then compare it to whatever the number is now?

All you've done is post a nominal stat that is not apples to apples with total population OR demographic changes around potential new household formation.

You say inventory is going up. OK. From which level to which level? What would be the "right" amount of inventory? When were we last at that level? What specific predictions did you make about the housing market when we were at that level?

You never do seem to mention that there is still an overall housing shortage in this country - at least 1.5 million units if not more.

I totally understand and agree with your point that it seems a bit of a conundrum that both rates and prices are "high" and neither seems to be correcting to reach a new equilibrium as one might expect. It seems less perplexing when you factor in the overall shortage, IMO.

As much as you seem to want to compare this to 2007, it simply is not 2007. I could easily see prices coming down a bit in some markets. I do not see any possibility for major markets to go down 40% or (a lot) more like they did during the financial crisis.

You also constantly harp on the excesses of FHA programs. It's not like I necessarily disagree, but you always seem to leave out context. e.g. I think less than 25% of sales use FHA financing. They also require the borrower to carry PMI. etc.

If there were going to be a cataclysm, we'd have seen it in office/commercial Certainly over a trillion dollars of problems there. And yet...prices are down in some asset classes (not all) and the banks appear to be mostly fine.