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re: Never Trumper and GOPE Murkowski down by double digits
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:08 pm to Jjdoc
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:08 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Walk me through it in any scenario where Murkowski wins.
People that vote for neither murkowski or challenger vote for Murkowski as their 2nd choice by a large margin. Similarly, people who voted for Democrat challenger, all have Murkowski as second choice.
ETA: republican party will have to work hard in Alaska to get third party/independent candidates to NOT have Murkowski as second choice
This post was edited on 4/5/21 at 2:12 pm
1
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:11 pm to gaetti15
quote:
People that vote for neither murkowski or challenger vote for Murkowski as their 2nd choice by a large margin.
That would happen how? What candidate is going to move her from below 15% of the vote to 50% plus 1 vote?
The dem will place second in this race. She didn't get 50% in the last race.
This post was edited on 4/5/21 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:14 pm to GodnCountry
quote:
That would happen how? What candidate is going to move her from below 15% of the vote to 50% plus 1 vote?
Alaska polls are notoriously hard to determine winners in advanced.
Hell, they had Sullivan and don young neck and neck with their challengers...yet both easily won (see Maine senate election as a comparable example as well)
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:16 pm to GodnCountry
frick em
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:16 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
This has happened before. She lost a primary and won as independent
And now that is impossible
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:18 pm to gaetti15
Small state polls have the same problems as a lot of municipal polls. Too hard to get good polling data for the district in question.
Probably doesn’t help that Alaska has annual migrations based on the weather, meaning that someone who is in Nome or elsewhere in the warm months could be in Anchorage or in another state entirely come November.
Probably doesn’t help that Alaska has annual migrations based on the weather, meaning that someone who is in Nome or elsewhere in the warm months could be in Anchorage or in another state entirely come November.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:20 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Walk me through it in any scenario where Murkowski wins.
She will not come close to beating her challenger.
She doesn't have to beat her challenger in 1st place votes. Because the top 4 candidates advance to the election, nobody will get 50% of the first place votes. The lion's share of Dem votes will place Murkowski as their second choice. I would also imagine the Alaska Republicans would select her as their second choice to avoid a Democrat having the seat. So even though she may finish third in the number of first place votes, she'll likely win the election by having a larger number of second place votes than either the Republican challenger or the Democrat.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:21 pm to GodnCountry
Alaska's new ranked choice voting law scares the crap out of me and it's possible that Murk could survive thanks to that.
Ranked choice voting is retarded.
Ranked choice voting is retarded.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:21 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Alaska polls are notoriously hard to determine winners in advanced.
Hell, they had Sullivan and don young neck and neck with their challengers...yet both easily won (see Maine senate election as a comparable example as well)
This is a whole new world. One in which people are pissed at her for her vote. It's now where she has to reach 50% plus a vote. Not 44%.
Joe Miller beat her in the GOP primary which pushed HAG to independent.
Joe ran as a Libertarian in 2016 and was 2nd. Those people voting for Joe are disgruntled people who walked away due to Murkowski. Those 90K votes will NOT go to her.
She is done
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:23 pm to GodnCountry
I looked it up. Lisa was defeated in the R primary in 2010. She ran as a write in and won with 39.5% of the vote. She will do the same if defeated in 2022. She wants that job for life.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:23 pm to GodnCountry
She will win with around 51-52% of the vote when it's all said in done.
Or win like the senator in Maine in a blowout nobody would have predicted
It sucks but that's what's going to happen.
Or win like the senator in Maine in a blowout nobody would have predicted
It sucks but that's what's going to happen.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:23 pm to GodnCountry
quote:
61 percent of Donald Trump voters approve of Tshibaka, 61 percent of Republicans approve of her,
Safe to say most GOP'ers are also Trump voters?
This post was edited on 4/5/21 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:24 pm to Sentrius
quote:Yeah. Round robin tournaments with loser's bracket for elections is silly.
Ranked choice voting is retarded.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:25 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Walk me through it in any scenario where Murkowski wins.
Look at the 2010 senatorial election in Alaska as the model. That’s her plan if defeated in the primary.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:26 pm to idlewatcher
quote:
Safe to say most GOP'ers are also Trump voters?
In mat-su, kenai, southeast of fairbanks area...yes.
But Alaska does have a large independent/non affiliated voter demographic.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:26 pm to SCLibertarian
quote:
She doesn't have to beat her challenger in 1st place votes. Because the top 4 candidates advance to the election, nobody will get 50% of the first place votes.
Agreed
quote:
The lion's share of Dem votes will place Murkowski as their second choice.
Maybe. I would tend to say Libertarian.
So doing the math there, That was only 11% of the entire vote in 2016. If she got all of them, that still will not put her at 50% plus 1.
quote:
I would also imagine the Alaska Republicans would select her as their second choice to avoid a Democrat having the seat.
She's being beat by double digits.
quote:
So even though she may finish third in the number of first place votes, she'll likely win the election by having a larger number of second place votes than either the Republican challenger or the Democrat.
She has to reach 50% plus 1. No Joe Miller votes will vote Murkowski.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:26 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Alaska's new ranked choice voting law scares the crap out of me
It should. And it should scare the hell out of thinking men and women that the voters of Alaska actually approved this scheme, simply to protect a cretin like Murkowski.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:27 pm to GodnCountry
If she loses in a primary, she’ll just do what she did a few years back and run as an independent. She will essentially then get all of the Democrat votes with a few of the establishment Republican votes and barely he got a victory. It will be the Democrats who put her into office. They’ll vote for her instead of the democrat candidate because they’ll know that the democrat candidate doesn’t have a chance in hell.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:28 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Yeah. Round robin tournaments with loser's bracket for elections is silly.
It's participation trophy nonsense brought to you from the participation trophy crowd.
There are only two fair election systems in my opinion.
The candidate with the most votes wins the election.
Or.....
The two candidates with the most votes advance to a runoff to determine a final winner.
Can't get more fair and honest than that.
Posted on 4/5/21 at 2:29 pm to MMauler
Lol shes not going to lose any primaries. She will be in the top 4 in the open jungle primary, then it moves on to the real election.
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