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Message
re: Negative economic threads
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:45 am to Lou Pai
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:45 am to Lou Pai
Trump biggest mistake was launching his trade war on all front, against the Chinese, the Canadian, the Europeans, the Asians.
Establish a coalition of allies and go against China.
That might come back to hunt him.
If a recession happens during his presidency, he is finished.
Establish a coalition of allies and go against China.
That might come back to hunt him.
If a recession happens during his presidency, he is finished.
0
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:53 am to jimmy the leg
quote:
It is crazy to think that Bill Maher has the pulse of the Dems, but it seems that they truly want a recession just so they can go after Trump in 2020.
Plus ole perv Joe Biden can't wait to rescind Trump's Tax Cuts. And the democrats want our children to learn the joys (gag) of the LGBT lifestyle. Like let's identify and recruit children for a lifetime of debauchery and use our public school system to do it.
Our choice America.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 7:54 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:57 am to Bard
quote:
Example: Almost every quarter since Trump won the election we've heard from economists how bad the numbers are going to be but once the numbers come out they've beaten expectations (and usually by a fair amount).
I'd like to see some specific examples of this.
I'd also like to see how it squares with promises of 4%+, and even budget assumptions of sustained 3%+. And the consistent touting of any numbers in 2017 and 18 when they were projecting growth in the neighborhood of 4-5%.
Yet what you'll actually see if you step back, is that this year and the previous two years will probably look a great deal like 2014-2016. Except for the government deficit trajectory, of course, and the FFR .
ETA: and to be clear, I don't see any of this as "negative". Only a realistic assessment of where we are. As always.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 8:00 am
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:05 am to dstone12
quote:
ROLCON acc to TD
that makes sense
Like what muh hank does
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:00 am to 90proofprofessional
yeah the prolonged economic growth assumption for the tax cut was hilarious. It was all politics. We should prepare for the worst. Long term stable growth doesn't win headlines though.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 9:29 am to jimmy the leg
It's gonna take a lot to make me sour on the US economy. I've been reading a lot of economic news out of the E.U. Those people are fricked.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:26 am to jimmy the leg
Liberals love misery for the American people.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:28 am to Zach
quote:
It's gonna take a lot to make me sour on the US economy. I've been reading a lot of economic news out of the E.U.
Hence the drop in our yields.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:30 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
I'd like to see some specific examples of this.
I've provided dates and links within timeframes and then ended each timeframe with that quarter's real GDP.
Prior to the election:
October 21, 2016 - Politico: Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets
quote:
New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.
“Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win certainly from the prospective of equity prices,” said Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz, one of the authors of the new study along with the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers. “You saw Clinton win the first debate and her odds jumped and stocks moved right along with it. Should Trump somehow manage to win you could see major Brexit-style selling.”
quote:
The new report suggests that the stock market is worth 11 percent more under a Clinton presidency than a Trump presidency. This is a highly unusual circumstance because markets historically prefer Republican policies on taxes, regulation and trade to those of Democrats.
Election Night:
Election Night 2016 - Krugman piece at NYT
quote:
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?
...
Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.
We saw the market dip after election night then have a huge rally thereafter, closing out Q4 2016 at 2.03% (which was the highest number since Q3 2015, for the rest of 2016 GDP was <2%).
Q1 2017:
January 30, 2017 - Forbes: Will Trump's Stupid Economics Crash Stock and Bond Markets?
quote:
What we've learned from Trump is that he is good to his economic delusions. If left to his own devices, Trump could, over time, leave our country with few trading partners and, in the process, endanger 40 million U.S. jobs.
February 27, 2017 - Boston U Today: Stock Market Crash Likely, BU Economist Predicts
quote:
Despite the fact that the stock market has entered record territory, BU economist Laurence Kotlikoff recently sold all of his stocks. You should, too, he says, if you want to avoid a coming market crash.
...
“If your stocks and long bonds are in retirement accounts, transfer them to short-term Treasurys,” he wrote.
March 15, 2017 - The Independent: Noam Chomsky predicts Donald Trump's administration will cause another financial crash
quote:
Noam Chomsky has warned the Donald Trump-fuelled rally in capital markets is coming to a close and another financial crash is on the horizon.
Q1 2017 GDP: 2.1%
Q2 2017:
April 18, 2017 - CNBC: Economist Zandi, who predicted a "lengthy recession" under Trump, now says that's unlikely
quote:
-Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics said in June 2016 that Trump’s policies would tank growth and cause a surge in unemployment.
-Current conditions show an economy neither overheating nor displaying signs of financial weakness, he now says.
Trump’s detractors, a camp in which Zandi was last year, are “overly pessimistic,” he said.
-Economist Mark Zandi has a new take about the state of the economy under Donald Trump, believing that both the president’s supporters and opponents have it wrong.
May 2, 2017 - Marketwatch: Next recession will hit during Trump's first two years
quote:
A recession in the United States is likely to come within the next two years. It is difficult to determine when a recession will occur based solely on economic activity. Economists argue about the precursors to a recession as a matter of course. I am not making the case that one will happen because I believe I am competent to enter that debate. Rather, I am making the case that a recession is increasingly likely simply by looking at the frequency with which they occur.
May 12, 2017 - The Economist: Why Trumponomics won't make America great again
quote:
The impulsiveness and shallowness of America’s president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law
June 29, 2017 - itep.org: Trump Budget Uses Unrealistic Economic Forecast to Tee Up Tax Cuts
quote:
The Trump Administration’s budget includes economic growth assumptions that flow from unrealistic projections rather than rigorous economic analysis.
Q2 2017 GDP: 2.16%
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:31 am to 90proofprofessional
Q3 2017:
July 7, 2017 - Vox.com: What the stock market's ruse under Trump should teach Democrats
July 22, The Intercept: DONALD TRUMP AND THE COMING FALL OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE
July 27, 2017 - Forbes: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will likely Trigger A Global Recession By End of 2018
August 5, 2017 - NYT: Is Trump's Turmoil Slowing Economic Growth?
Q3 2017 GDP: 2.42%
Q4 2017:
October 4, 2017 - Bloomberg: Brace up! Next global recession may come in 2019
November 14th, 2017 - Lombardi Letter: 5 Sings of a U.S. Economic Collapse in 2019
October 19, 2017 - CNN Money: Meet the bears predicting stock market doom
November 30, 2017 - thinkadvisor.com: Biggets Crash Ever Is (Probably) Coming by 2020: Harry Dent
December 5, 2017 - CNBC: US headed for recession in 2019 as Fed raises rates, economist warns
December 30, 2017 - When Forecasters Get It Wrong: Always
Q4 2017 GDP: 2.8%
Average GDP for 2017: 2.37%
My google-fu is off today, can't seem to find the predicted numbers versus actual but as you can see we were inundated from prior to Election Night 2016 and through 2017 with how bad the economy is or will soon be despite improving numbers (and that's just GDP, I imagine Unemployment is the same). The tone changed briefly after the numbers were released then went straight back to doom & gloom. Neither 2018 nor 2019 have been any different (you can dig into that on your own).
Now I will caveat that the increase in deficit spending is indeed concerning and I was truly hoping Trump would address that in his first time. At this time he's talking about addressing it in his 2nd term (if he wins in 2020, which he is well positioned to do at this moment) and while I hope that's not too late I don't think it's enough to be driving the level of buying we're seeing on long-term bonds (at least it wouldn't be without years of cries about "the end is near").
July 7, 2017 - Vox.com: What the stock market's ruse under Trump should teach Democrats
quote:
A lot of predictions were upended when Donald Trump won the presidency. But one of the most interesting was the idea that a President Trump would cause a stock market collapse — or at least a sharp decline.
July 22, The Intercept: DONALD TRUMP AND THE COMING FALL OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE
quote:
Imagining the real-life impact on the U.S. economy, McCoy offers a dark prediction:
quote:
For the majority of Americans, the 2020s will likely be remembered as a demoralizing decade of rising prices, stagnant wages, and fading international competitiveness. After years of swelling deficits fed by incessant warfare in distant lands, in 2030 the U.S. dollar eventually loses its special status as the world’s dominant reserve currency.
July 27, 2017 - Forbes: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will likely Trigger A Global Recession By End of 2018
quote:
But there is another recession in our future (there is always another recession), which I think will ensue by the end of 2018. And it’s going to be at least as bad as the last one was in terms of the global pain it causes.
August 5, 2017 - NYT: Is Trump's Turmoil Slowing Economic Growth?
quote:
At the end of last month, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for economic growth in the United States. Where the I.M.F. previously predicted the economy would grow at a rate of 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018, it now expects 2.1 percent growth in both years.
The reason? An uncertain and insufficiently expansionary economic environment linked to the chaos in Washington. Yes, the stock market has been strong and unemployment is down. But Donald Trump, friend of business, may be costing us growth, a key indicator of economic health.
Q3 2017 GDP: 2.42%
Q4 2017:
October 4, 2017 - Bloomberg: Brace up! Next global recession may come in 2019
quote:
Marathon Asset Management boss Bruce Richards is gearing up for the next global recession, which he reckons could be less than two years away.
November 14th, 2017 - Lombardi Letter: 5 Sings of a U.S. Economic Collapse in 2019
quote:
We could be closing in on a U.S. economic collapse in 2019.
The statement above may sound way too pessimistic and like something not discussed in the mainstream, but it’s possible. It can’t be stressed enough; 2019 could be a very critical year for the U.S. economy.
October 19, 2017 - CNN Money: Meet the bears predicting stock market doom
quote:
Nonetheless, some bears are fighting the herd mentality on Wall Street by warning of serious trouble brewing just beneath the surface of the stock market. These market skeptics are reassured by the fact that betting against stocks wasn't popular in 2007, either.
"The best time to be a bear is the loneliest time," Jesse Felder, a money manager and founder of The Felder Report, told CNNMoney.
November 30, 2017 - thinkadvisor.com: Biggets Crash Ever Is (Probably) Coming by 2020: Harry Dent
quote:
Last June, Dent told ThinkAdvisor that an economic and stock market calamity would strike within three years. He is now indeed predicting the crash to occur between late 2017 and early 2020. But with only five weeks to go this year, if stocks don’t start tumbling soon, he’ll be rethinking that forecast, the usually adamant Dent says, with concern.
December 5, 2017 - CNBC: US headed for recession in 2019 as Fed raises rates, economist warns
quote:
The continuing rapid ascent of global equities combined with rising interest rates has some financial analysts predicting inevitable recession in the near future.
“We think the (Federal Reserve) will continue to tighten pretty steadily over the course of the next couple of years or so, but we’re starting to think that the end of the cycle, you can start to see it now. So we’re saying 2019: recession,” Robin Bew, CEO of the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC on Tuesday.
December 30, 2017 - When Forecasters Get It Wrong: Always
quote:
To borrow from Yogi Berra, it is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But 2017 was particularly difficult. On many of the biggest forecasts — global growth, inflation, the trajectory of the big powers — the experts got the year wrong.
Q4 2017 GDP: 2.8%
Average GDP for 2017: 2.37%
My google-fu is off today, can't seem to find the predicted numbers versus actual but as you can see we were inundated from prior to Election Night 2016 and through 2017 with how bad the economy is or will soon be despite improving numbers (and that's just GDP, I imagine Unemployment is the same). The tone changed briefly after the numbers were released then went straight back to doom & gloom. Neither 2018 nor 2019 have been any different (you can dig into that on your own).
Now I will caveat that the increase in deficit spending is indeed concerning and I was truly hoping Trump would address that in his first time. At this time he's talking about addressing it in his 2nd term (if he wins in 2020, which he is well positioned to do at this moment) and while I hope that's not too late I don't think it's enough to be driving the level of buying we're seeing on long-term bonds (at least it wouldn't be without years of cries about "the end is near").
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:34 am to jimmy the leg
Drudge is pushing tf out of the impending economic doom narrative.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:43 am to Oddibe
quote:
Do you remember all the stories from the media during the Obama years about the Republicans wanting Obama to fail and how it was all about racism and being un-American?
They are hoping the country fails so they can get back into power just to further erode our future.
The hypocrisy is rampant on both sides...depends on who's in office.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:59 am to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Drudge is pushing tf out of the impending economic doom narrative.
They didn't seem to hit this level until around Q4 2018 or Q1 of this year. Prior to that I can remember big market gains as well as big losses being the headlines. Also as we've gotten more time between now and Election Night 2016 I've noticed a distinct upturn in anti-Trump stories on Drudge.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:45 am to jimmy the leg
There are some warning signs of recession globally. It has nothing to do with Trump either it’s been coming for awhile.
How big of an impact it has here I don’t know. So far we have seemed to be more resilient than the rest of the world and might can sneak by with just a slowing of economic growth rather than recession. And I hope if it has to happen that it comes after 2020 election
How big of an impact it has here I don’t know. So far we have seemed to be more resilient than the rest of the world and might can sneak by with just a slowing of economic growth rather than recession. And I hope if it has to happen that it comes after 2020 election
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:33 pm to Bard
You represent that list as what you hear "from economists" about "how bad the numbers are going to be", but an easy majority of items on that gish-gallop list of yours don't even meet your own criteria.
Either for not being actual predictions of the time frame you say they cover (or for many, for any specific time frame at all), or for not even being made by economists, or based on an actual economic analysis. Krugman does not speak for the field of economics, although he is an authority on one (other) tiny corner of it. You include freaking Noam Chomsky on your list of people speaking for economists? Or Kotlikoff, who is correctly described as a contrarian in your own article?
Probably the closest thing in there to representing what you characterize that list to represent, is the study by Zandi & his Moodys people. Except that it scores Trump's proposals if they'd be implemented exactly as stated in his proposals as a candidate. Your Marketwatch one that predicts one in the next 2 years from early 2017 explicitly says it isn't an economic analysis, and that it's strictly based on the historical average length of business cycles.
The ITEP one, where they criticize for using rosy predictions to favor the tax cuts' scoring has proven remarkably correct as stated- especially considering the info available at the time it was written!
Several of those articles don't touch on current dynamics in the economy at all, like that Intercept one, which talks about war and the empire or some shite. In other cases, they strictly talk about financial markets- because they're written by asset managers. In others, they compare estimates made based on no-tax-cuts scenarios to the period immediately following the tax cuts.
In still others, you include predictions of a 2019 global recession made years ago. Have you seen what's happening to manufacturing globally? You shouldn't be so quick to dismiss that possibility, even if it does only manifest as a near-miss, or not until 2020 or something. Your many examples of people predicting stock market crashes based on things like "government debt" or even consumer debt most certainly do not find a home in the economic mainstream, either. Obviously, neither do the predictions of people your own articles describe as "skeptics" and "contrarians".
Other than the Moody's one that scored Trump's proposals way in the past as if they would be implemented precisely, I see a single additional link out of both of those two posts that actually truly represents a prediction of the type you intimate: that 2017 projection by the EIU of a 2019 recession. But even that modeling was executed prior to TCJA.
You are off-base describing your narrative here as economists generally, and it just makes it seem like you are overly-sensitive to the same old doomsaying that goes along with the same old cheerleading that's in the media all the time.
That hasn't been what I have seen from non-Krugman types at all. What I have seen from the mainstream has broadly been exactly correct. A sugar-high that doesn't even come very close to the rhetoric of the administration and its acolytes, that is at least partially offset by endless business investment uncertainty while our trade barriers are the whim of Trump & co.
And what has happened, post TCJA and tariffs? Sustained 4% GDP? No. Not a single quarter of it, as Q2 2018 was revised down from 4.2% all the way down to 3.5%, which I'd not expect to have seen on this board, as I didn't post it myself. In fact only that quarter was above 3% last year.
That plus an annual figure just shy of 2015's. Decelerating business investment that immediately turned around in Q2 last year. (Hey, what unwise policy course did we start implementing that quarter?)
^What is indeed concerning to me is that this kind of mealy-mouthed shite is about the closest thing to criticism he's getting from his defenders on spending. How many times does the exact opposite have to happen? The guy campaigned on not touching SS, Medicaid, and Medicare.
Regardless, the end is not near. A recession may or may not be coming. More likely IMO we'll just quickly settle back to around 2%. Either way, not the end.
Either for not being actual predictions of the time frame you say they cover (or for many, for any specific time frame at all), or for not even being made by economists, or based on an actual economic analysis. Krugman does not speak for the field of economics, although he is an authority on one (other) tiny corner of it. You include freaking Noam Chomsky on your list of people speaking for economists? Or Kotlikoff, who is correctly described as a contrarian in your own article?
Probably the closest thing in there to representing what you characterize that list to represent, is the study by Zandi & his Moodys people. Except that it scores Trump's proposals if they'd be implemented exactly as stated in his proposals as a candidate. Your Marketwatch one that predicts one in the next 2 years from early 2017 explicitly says it isn't an economic analysis, and that it's strictly based on the historical average length of business cycles.
The ITEP one, where they criticize for using rosy predictions to favor the tax cuts' scoring has proven remarkably correct as stated- especially considering the info available at the time it was written!
Several of those articles don't touch on current dynamics in the economy at all, like that Intercept one, which talks about war and the empire or some shite. In other cases, they strictly talk about financial markets- because they're written by asset managers. In others, they compare estimates made based on no-tax-cuts scenarios to the period immediately following the tax cuts.
In still others, you include predictions of a 2019 global recession made years ago. Have you seen what's happening to manufacturing globally? You shouldn't be so quick to dismiss that possibility, even if it does only manifest as a near-miss, or not until 2020 or something. Your many examples of people predicting stock market crashes based on things like "government debt" or even consumer debt most certainly do not find a home in the economic mainstream, either. Obviously, neither do the predictions of people your own articles describe as "skeptics" and "contrarians".
Other than the Moody's one that scored Trump's proposals way in the past as if they would be implemented precisely, I see a single additional link out of both of those two posts that actually truly represents a prediction of the type you intimate: that 2017 projection by the EIU of a 2019 recession. But even that modeling was executed prior to TCJA.
You are off-base describing your narrative here as economists generally, and it just makes it seem like you are overly-sensitive to the same old doomsaying that goes along with the same old cheerleading that's in the media all the time.
quote:
can't seem to find the predicted numbers versus actual but as you can see we were inundated from prior to Election Night 2016 and through 2017 with how bad the economy is or will soon be despite improving numbers (and that's just GDP, I imagine Unemployment is the same). The tone changed briefly after the numbers were released then went straight back to doom & gloom. Neither 2018 nor 2019 have been any different (you can dig into that on your own).
That hasn't been what I have seen from non-Krugman types at all. What I have seen from the mainstream has broadly been exactly correct. A sugar-high that doesn't even come very close to the rhetoric of the administration and its acolytes, that is at least partially offset by endless business investment uncertainty while our trade barriers are the whim of Trump & co.
And what has happened, post TCJA and tariffs? Sustained 4% GDP? No. Not a single quarter of it, as Q2 2018 was revised down from 4.2% all the way down to 3.5%, which I'd not expect to have seen on this board, as I didn't post it myself. In fact only that quarter was above 3% last year.
That plus an annual figure just shy of 2015's. Decelerating business investment that immediately turned around in Q2 last year. (Hey, what unwise policy course did we start implementing that quarter?)
quote:
I will caveat that the increase in deficit spending is indeed concerning and I was truly hoping Trump would address that in his first time. At this time he's talking about addressing it in his 2nd term
^What is indeed concerning to me is that this kind of mealy-mouthed shite is about the closest thing to criticism he's getting from his defenders on spending. How many times does the exact opposite have to happen? The guy campaigned on not touching SS, Medicaid, and Medicare.
Regardless, the end is not near. A recession may or may not be coming. More likely IMO we'll just quickly settle back to around 2%. Either way, not the end.
Posted on 8/15/19 at 4:59 pm to 90proofprofessional
I gave you economists, economic sites, high-traffic business sites, etc and your response is akin to a kid getting a new Benz for their 16th birthday but bitching that its "only an A Class 
".
". 
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