NC: For those overly concerned some numbers

Let this be true. We need NC

My post from Tuesday

Ok... just spent time digging into the state’s performance and found a few things.

Election Day results for NC the past two cycles:
2016:
Trump+251k on Election Day
Trump-78k in early voting
Margin+173k (49.8% to 46.2%)

2012
Romney+221k on Election Day
Romney-129k in early voting
Margin+92k (50.4% to 48.4%)

Basically republicans win Election Day by 235k on average.

However let’s turn to 2020 early results and compare those to 2016.

In 2016 the early breakdown was:
Dem- 1,308k (304k lead over Rep)
Rep- 1,004k
Ind- 835k

So if you assume every Dem and Rep voted by party, then IND had to be +226k to get to Trump being -78k in early votes. +226k means Trump got 63.5% of the independent vote.

Now let’s look at 2020 to date
Dem- 1,281 (329k lead over Rep)
Rep- 952k
Ind- 924k.
Now let’s assume he gets the same 63.5% of IND votes, he picks up +250k. All of that said, he is down about 80k votes in early election voting.

Overall, I think the early voting % is up relative to the total electorate so expecting +235k on Election Day is aggressive. If it is +150k then Trump still wins by 70k votes and that is as conservative as I can get. The only thing would be if there is mass party defection of Republicans, if Independents have shifted hard to Biden (he won 43.7% in the primary), or election day Republican turnout is thwarted.

All I can say is everything I see about early voting and the detailed stats available lead me to believe North Carolina’s is Trump’s.

The question is how many of those 2016 "Democrats" were really DINO's? That is, like many in the south, they had been long time registered D's, but haven't voted D in a presidential election in a long time. Between 2016 and 2020 they just decided to "make it official" and change their party registration...but not their vote.

While not in NC, this describes my parents. They were registered as Democrats up until, at least, 2016...if not later. But they had not voted for the Democratic candidate for President at least since Gore in 2000.

LANDSLIDE
A
N
D
S
L
I
D
E

Per the numbers I can find

Democrats had a raw ballot edge in 2016 of 279,608

It's currently at 269,975 and falling (two more days of early voting). Republicans have been consistently making up about 15K a day the past week or so, so it's likely to be around ~200K.

Republicans have easily overcome much bigger chunks than that on election day.

Dems are trying to argue that the turnout is so high there aren't enough votes left on election day or whatnot. However Dems have likely cannibalized their election day vote more so than Republicans so the voters who do show up on election day will be even more lopsided than usual.

As others have said, barring a lot of Republican defections or independents swinging wildly away from Trump, he should win NC.

Please let this mean the end of Roy Cooper also and he can take That little chipmunk Mandy Cohen with him.

Cooper isn’t going anywhere.

I hope we stay red... the two or three or 4 largest metro areas have a huge Democratic base. Hope they forget to vote.
Gonna take all the country baws to get out and vote.