re: NBC news reporting Biden to have meeting with family tomorrow about future of campaign

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According to Kass’s post, Jill Biden is insistent about Joe Biden running for re-election, causing tension within his own campaign. Kamala Harris is reportedly “furious” that she is not being considered as a potential replacement candidate. “What I am hearing regarding Joe Biden. Ron Klain and Barack Obama are having a sit down with the President today. Jill Biden is insistent that Joe runs. Kamala is furious that she is not being considered as a replacement (Whitmer and Newsom are). Interestingly my neighbor in East Hampton is hosting the Bidens tomorrow. It will be an important tell if the fundraiser is cancelled,” Doug Cass wrote on X.

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“We are monitoring the calls from across the country for President Biden to step aside, either now or before the election, and have concluded that the process for substitution and withdrawal is very complicated. We will remain vigilant that appropriate election integrity procedures are followed,” said Mike Howell, Executive Director of The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project.

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Important caveats include the timeline and triggering events. For example, some states allow withdrawal before the 74th day before an election,’ and failure to adhere to these timelines can result in the candidate’s name remaining on the ballot! (which provides its own corollary of post-election litigation). Likewise, the rationale for withdrawal (death, medical, or other) can be outcome determinative. Some states, like South Carolina, do not allow withdrawal for political reasons.’ There is also the possibility that states will be complicit in an improper withdrawal or substitution. The general scenario plays out after an election where the candidate dies, and the electors are left to choose who they are voting for. This circumstance is only applicable at the close of the election year there is greater uncertainty if the withdrawal happens before the election. Should the Democrats choose to withdraw in June or July, after many states’ withdrawal timelines expire, what happens to those expired ballots? The answer is it depends.

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Much will come down to when Biden withdraws, what procedures he does or does not follow, and the operating state law timelines and triggering events. However, at least 31 states defer to state or national party rules and committees for nominating in the event of withdrawal. These states circumvent the substitution process highlighted above. There may be some avenues for challenges to these laws on improper delegation grounds, however, these may be marginally beneficial. There is also the issue of applicability. In some of these states there are no statutes that deal with presidential candidate withdrawal or vacancy in nominations, or the laws only operate at the primary election. Even more, there is little caselaw determining when these statutes apply.

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