re: National Review: We are worse off than before

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To cut off China’s oil supply.

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How do you think this war does that, exactly?

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If the USA were to gain control over the oil sectors of both Venezuela and Iran, it would strike at the heart of China’s "opportunistic arbitrage" energy strategy. While China has spent years building a massive safety net, losing these two specific partners would create significant economic and strategic friction.

?Here is how that scenario would likely hurt China:

?1. Loss of the "Sanctions Discount"

?China is currently the world’s primary buyer of sanctioned oil. By purchasing from Iran and Venezuela, Chinese "teapot" refineries (independent, smaller refiners) often receive discounts of $10–$30 per barrel compared to global benchmarks like Brent.

?The Hit: If the U.S. controlled these flows, those deep discounts would vanish. China would be forced to pay full market price, increasing its annual energy bill by tens of billions of dollars.

?Refinery Survival: Many of China’s independent refineries rely specifically on these margins to remain profitable. Without cheap Iranian and Venezuelan crude, these "teapots" could face a wave of bankruptcies.

?2. Disruption of "Shadow" Logistics

?Currently, China uses a "shadow fleet" of aging tankers and opaque financial transactions to bypass U.S. sanctions.

?Increased Friction: U.S. control would bring these exports into the light. China would lose its ability to settle trades in Yuan (RMB) outside the dollar-based SWIFT system, making its energy imports more vulnerable to U.S. financial pressure and monitoring.

?3. Weakening of Energy Security

?China imports over 70% of its oil, and roughly 15–20% of those imports currently come from Iran and Venezuela combined.

?Strategic Vulnerability: If the U.S. controls these sources, it gains a "kill switch" over a significant portion of China's daily energy needs. In a conflict (such as a crisis in the Taiwan Strait), the U.S. could theoretically throttle or cut off these supplies at the source.

?Reliance on Seaborne Routes: Over 90% of China's oil arrives by sea. U.S. control in the Middle East (Iran) and the Caribbean (Venezuela) would effectively bracket China's supply lines under American oversight.

?4. Impact on Strategic Reserves

?China has been aggressively stockpiling oil, reaching an estimated 1.2 to 1.4 billion barrels by early 2026—enough for about 110–120 days of cover.

?Replenishment Costs: Much of this reserve was built using "cheap" sanctioned oil. If China needs to replenish these stocks in the future, doing so at U.S.-controlled market rates would be far more expensive, draining China's foreign exchange reserves.

?Why China might "weather" the blow

?Despite these hurts, China wouldn't collapse immediately for two reasons:

?Diversification: China has increased imports from Russia (via pipelines that are harder for the U.S. to block) and increased its domestic renewable energy capacity.

?The "Ant Strategy": Their massive 120-day stockpile acts as a buffer, giving them several months to find alternative suppliers (like Brazil or Canada) before a true shortage hits.

?In short: U.S. control wouldn't necessarily "starve" China of oil, but it would make China’s energy much more expensive, harder to transport, and strategically fragile.

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We could open it up whenever we want. None of the oil going through that strait comes to the U.S., most of it goes to China. They’re screwed, we’re not. The worst that happens here is gas is $3.50 instead of $2.50. But China has an actual supply problem if the strait is closed. Real chaos, not just more expensive gas.

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If the USA were to gain control over the oil sectors of both Venezuela and Iran

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SDV why did your boy chicken out on taking kharg island?

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Now? They proved they can do it and will do it.

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