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Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:49 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
By taking Kharg Island or installing our pupper regime
I said last week that while I absolutely firmly am against the war I think we have to see it through at this point.
1. We look weak by not militarily getting the strait open
2. We have the same problems except worse if we don’t break their hold on the strait AND have the same regime in place
ETA I don’t want “bridge and power plant day” take kharg and be done
This post was edited on 4/9/26 at 9:53 pm
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:50 pm to Stonehog
quote:
You don’t have a very good understanding of this issue. You’re looking at the surface level instead of deeper implications and strategies, which are purposefully less obvious.
No. I asked you direct questions about your point that you either didn't see or ignored.
Unless Iran keeps the SOH closed, China will get plenty of oil from Iran
If the SOH remains closed, the worldwide economy will collapse.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:51 pm to Stonehog
quote:
You don’t have a very good understanding of this issue. You’re looking at the surface level instead of deeper implications and strategies, which are purposefully less obvious. There’s a lot more at play here than most people realize.
So China got as many barrels of oil in the month of March as they averaged over the last year.
Now we want the strait open.
So how is this choking China again?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:52 pm to bstew3006
quote:
I’m not shifting anything. I’m responding directly to your claim that Iran “hasn’t” acted on their threats for “obvious reasons.”
How many times have they closed the strait in the past 50 years?
That's the discussion.
Not vaguely tangential potential outcomes or completely unrelated things like terrorism.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:52 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
So China got as many barrels of oil in the month of March as they averaged over the last year.
Now we want the strait open.
So how is this choking China again?
Exactly
Iran and China end up closer after this war.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:54 pm to prplhze2000
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:08 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
So China got as many barrels of oil in the month of March as they averaged over the last year.
Defensive stockpiling. They know they’re screwed if imports from Iran dwindle.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:10 pm to Stonehog
quote:
Defensive stockpiling. They know they’re screwed if imports from Iran dwindle.
Once again.
We want the strait open.
How are we strategically choking China by begging for help to get it open and opened with the same regime in control?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:14 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
We want the strait open.
Do you take everything at face value? Do you think we’re at war because Iran might get a nuke?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:15 pm to Stonehog
Ahhh it’s always 7d underwater backgammon 
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:18 pm to Stonehog
That Q-anon type of “trust the process” crap gets old for everyone else, except the select few….
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:22 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Ahhh it’s always 7d underwater backgammon
No it’s pretty basic posturing.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:24 pm to Adam Banks
Problem is Bibi doesn’t listen to Trump. He dictates to Trump. Hopefully that changes. I really hope so.
I don’t know what “see it through” means for you in terms of US boots on the ground. Because if the people don’t ride up to replace the regime, they aren’t just walking away.
But US Troops would be a no-go for me. It would just end up being an even bigger disaster than just walking away now and losing face…
I don’t know what “see it through” means for you in terms of US boots on the ground. Because if the people don’t ride up to replace the regime, they aren’t just walking away.
But US Troops would be a no-go for me. It would just end up being an even bigger disaster than just walking away now and losing face…
Posted on 4/9/26 at 10:28 pm to AGGIES
quote:
That Q-anon type of “trust the process” crap
That’s not what this is at all. Here’s a video that breaks it down really well:
Why the oil crisis is good
Posted on 4/9/26 at 11:35 pm to SlowFlowPro
I don’t think the fact that there’s been four Ayatollahs in the last two weeks make them appear all that strong. No matter how the media tries to frame this.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 11:38 pm to the808bass
quote:
I don’t think the fact that there’s been four Ayatollahs in the last two weeks make them appear all that strong. No matter how the media tries to frame this.
Everyone’s scared to pass through the Strait now.
That is power that the Iranian regime has now that they didn’t have before.
That’s not media spin. That is looking at a huge backlog of oil tankers sitting in the gulf waiting around.
This post was edited on 4/9/26 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 4/9/26 at 11:43 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Everyone’s scared to pass through the Strait now.
Great.
Would the United States be stronger or weaker if we had three of our Presidents assassinated by Iran in a month but we were taking the piss out of anyone going through the Panama Canal? How long do you think this Strait of Hormuz situation lasts?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 11:50 pm to the808bass
quote:
How long do you think this Strait of Hormuz situation lasts?
No idea. I don’t think anyone knows, because there’s no good solutions.
How long do you think?
And what is the basis for the timeline?
Posted on 4/10/26 at 12:02 am to AGGIES
Less than a month - 80% likelihood
I don’t think Iran has the infrastructure or reserves of equipment/supplies to last that long.
Less than two weeks - 50% likelihood
We’ve been in this war for 41 days. Not 41 months.
I don’t think Iran has the infrastructure or reserves of equipment/supplies to last that long.
Less than two weeks - 50% likelihood
We’ve been in this war for 41 days. Not 41 months.
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