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1
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:18 pm to TBoy
Aren’t you on social security disability?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:19 pm to OMLandshark
Doesn’t he run a bunch of simulations or something? It looks like you picked an extreme outlier.
I think his latest is 80 to Biden and 20 to Trump of 100 models... or something like that. As a reminder, “2016.”
I think his latest is 80 to Biden and 20 to Trump of 100 models... or something like that. As a reminder, “2016.”
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:22 pm to Korkstand
quote:
And projection. Lots and lots of projection.
Is that like how you consistently project stupidity ?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:27 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
So they just throw a ton of possible “predictions” out there, then point to the one that ends up being right?
quote:
They have a forecast of the most likely scenarios........and a range of possible scenarios from a Biden landslide to Trump winning comfortably
So....exactly what I said.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:28 pm to TejasHorn
quote:They run 40,000 simulations, and Biden getting 413 EVs is the most common result, which is reflected in this map.
Doesn’t he run a bunch of simulations or something? It looks like you picked an extreme outlier.
But this is NOT the same as "predicting" this result, as some seem to think. The same batch of simulations gives a probability of Biden getting less than 400 EVs is overwhelmingly more likely than more.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:29 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:Something like that.
Is that like how you consistently project stupidity ?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:29 pm to Korkstand
quote:
No, but the fact that you've asked this question gives us some insight into why so many people don't understand probability.
I understand probability fine. I thought 538 made predictions, turns out they just throw out a ton of possible results. Is that supposed to be difficult?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:30 pm to Flats
quote:No again.
So....exactly what I said.
More insight into why people are so awful at understanding probabilities.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:30 pm to Korkstand
quote:
But this is NOT the same as "predicting"
agree, models rarely predict anything accurately
in fact, their purpose isn't to predict at all
their purpose is to persuade people
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:33 pm to Flats
quote:Your line of questioning indicates otherwise.
I understand probability fine.
quote:Explain in your own words what this means.
I thought 538 made predictions
quote:That is not at all what they do.
turns out they just throw out a ton of possible results
quote:It can be exceedingly difficult depending on how dirty the data is.
Is that supposed to be difficult?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:36 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Your line of questioning indicates otherwise.
My line of questioning indicates what I already said: I thought 538 made predictions. You're saying they don't; fine.
Your line of responses indicates that you're a self-inflating douche.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:37 pm to TrueTiger
quote:You might be surprised at how accurate the state by state results were.
agree, models rarely predict anything accurately
quote:Persuade them of what? That Biden's got it in the bag, so there's no need to vote?
in fact, their purpose isn't to predict at all
their purpose is to persuade people
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:38 pm to Korkstand
Here's what I think happens
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:41 pm to Flats
quote:Explain in your own words what this means.
I thought 538 made predictions
Do you think that a model which results in Biden getting 413 EVs as the most likely result is the same thing as a prediction that he will get 413 EVs?
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:46 pm to OMLandshark
He must know something about the fraud. He’s a Democrat operative. I could see them using this as evidence to support their arguments against obvious fraud.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:47 pm to TBoy
quote:
TBoy
Your energy is so low
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:49 pm to OMLandshark
He must be on cocaine.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 6:57 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Persuade them of what? That Biden's got it in the bag, so there's no need to vote?
more like persuade them that their team is going to win big, get out there and join the wave, make a mandate
Look at the models predicting 2 million COVID deaths in the U.S., that prediction never happened, but that wasn't the point. The point was to get people to behave differently.
Posted on 10/18/20 at 7:11 pm to TrueTiger
quote:Like it worked for Hillary?
more like persuade them that their team is going to win big, get out there and join the wave
quote:Nevermind that those were early projections which were quickly revised, let's see where your logic takes us. Do you believe that we did NOT behave differently and the models were far off? Or that we DID behave differently (this is obviously true, right?) and that somehow proves that the models were far off anyway?
Look at the models predicting 2 million COVID deaths in the U.S., that prediction never happened, but that wasn't the point. The point was to get people to behave differently.
It is such a struggle to detach myself from reality far enough to try to get into the mindset of this board.
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